From 2022 165438+ 10, there was a significant increase in holdings. This year, it increased its holdings by about 4% in 65438+ 10, which was the first increase after the epidemic.
Judging from these data, the liquidity of the United States is tight due to interest rate hikes, and the market obtains liquidity by selling gold reserves, but China is still abundant in liquidity, and even needs to buy gold to raise the exchange rate price of RMB.
However, judging from the trend of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, because the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates in June 5438+10, the Bank of China stopped buying gold, but the data was not updated and could not be confirmed.
In February, even if the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again, the Bank of China did not buy gold, because the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar did not fall further, which can only be confirmed after the data was updated in March.
Since the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank, the gold futures contract price of NYSE in April has been in a short state, and short orders were quickly settled to avoid default on due delivery. As time goes by, the price of NYSE may exceed that of Shanghai Stock Exchange.
We can think that financial institutions in the United States are threatened by the bank bankruptcy crisis and dare not spit out their assets easily, so the price of gold will still be short in the short term, but this situation may be forced to sell gold reserves to obtain liquidity with the emergence of a run, so there may be obvious selling pressure in the medium and long term and the price may go down.
As for China, there is no data to support the phenomenon of hoarding gold. On the contrary, it is not ruled out that some institutions may take advantage of the short selling in the US market to sell their reserves for cash, and then wait until the US financial crisis breaks out further and banks close down, so prices may rise in the next few days. However, when the NYSE price exceeds the Shanghai Stock Exchange price, we should pay attention to the risk of shorting, and it is best not to rush to add positions.
In the past, the price of Shanghai Stock Exchange was driven by the abundant liquidity of RMB, but soon the US debt crisis is bound to break out, the Fed is bound to greatly expand its watch, and the price of the US dollar has fallen sharply, which in turn leads to the rapid appreciation of RMB.
In order to avoid hurting the real economy due to the rapid appreciation, the Bank of China is bound to spit out some gold reserves to absorb liquidity. Therefore, the central bank's increase in holdings should not last long, and then the logic of the whole market will reverse. There should be a false increase in the price of new york Stock Exchange, while the price of Shanghai Stock Exchange should be flat or slightly lower.