In June 5438+10, the central bank lowered the RRR in an all-round way, and the epidemic situation in COVID-19 was superimposed at the end of the month. The yield of short-term government bonds fell sharply, and the futures of government bonds rose sharply.
The epidemic situation gradually improved in February, and the policy focus shifted to the economy. In order to ensure economic growth, the central bank lowered the repo rate, MLF rate and LPR, and injected a lot of liquidity into the market. After the futures festival, the national debt remained high.
In March this year, the COVID-19 epidemic spread from China to Europe and the United States. Affected by the crude oil war, the financial market fluctuated violently, and the domestic market was under pressure to prevent imports, loosen the direction of monetary policy and push up the price of treasury bonds futures.
In April, the epidemic situation in COVID-19 in Europe and America improved and began to prepare for breeding. The volatility of financial markets narrowed and the VIX index continued to decline. However, the domestic economy is weak, the epidemic abroad is spreading, policymakers' worries about the economy are intensifying, domestic loose monetary policy is increasing, and the futures price of government bonds is rising.
In May, the COVID-19 epidemic in Europe and America continued to improve, the fluctuation range of financial markets continued to narrow, the VIX index continued to decline, the stock market and commodity prices recovered together, the bond market lost its upward momentum, domestic productivity increased, monetary policy remained unchanged, capital margin tightened, and the futures range of government bonds resumed.
In June, funds were slightly tightened, but there was limited room for raising interest rates. China often loosens the adjustment of monetary policy, and treasury bonds futures continue to bottom out.