Structuralism or mainstream school
This faction has a large number, including not only experts from most developed countries.
Scholars, government officials and business people, including the International Monetary Fund (
Most major members of international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund), and even some Asian countries.
The government and people of this country.
This school mainly starts with structural analysis and thinks that the Asian financial crisis has broken out.
The fundamental reason for development lies in the politics, economy, finance and industry of these countries.
There are serious structural problems in this field. For example, the relationship between the government and large enterprises.
The system is too dense, the management and supervision system of banks is out of order, and the lending of enterprises and
Investment strategy mistakes, cronyism, rampant corruption, and so on. Among them,
The "East Asian model" praised by the world has also been severely criticized.
They think that although this model has its own characteristics in the early stage of economic development.
The obvious advantages, but its inherent characteristics, namely "government-led", by
After a certain period of time, it becomes an obstacle to economic development. Because it belongs to the government.
Only intervention can distort the market mechanism and affect the rational allocation of resources.
It aggravated the defects of the original internal structure and eventually led to the financial crisis.
The outbreak of the epidemic prepared the necessary conditions.
According to the above analysis, the party's policy recommendations to Asian countries are:
Abandon the Asian model and adopt the American model; At the same time, carry out various structural changes.
Reform, especially to strictly limit the behavior and role of the government, vigorously cut.
Reduce government budget and privatize state-owned banks and state-owned enterprises. special
The structural reform plan was formulated by the IMF, and currently Thailand, South Korea, India
Governments in countries such as Indonesia have followed suit.
2. Marketism or liberalism?
The number of students in this school is small, mainly including experts from some developed countries.
Scholars and government officials.
The basic characteristics of this school are advocating market mechanism and free competition. Before they
It seems that the foundation of Asian economy is still good, although there are also some in these countries.
There are some defects and problems, but they are not directly related to the outbreak of the financial crisis.
The relationship. So the focus of their analysis and explanation is the financial crisis.
In fact, the outbreak of the financial crisis in China is the result of the market mechanism, especially the international financial market mechanism.
The result of the action.
For example, some of them compare the power of the international financial market to
The "atomic bomb" is considered extremely powerful, but it is also moody: if the market
Look at a country's financial performance with approval, then the country's
The economy will be stable and prosperous; If the market comes to the opposite conclusion, then this
The country will fall into disaster. For example, Latin American countries in 1980s, 1994.
Mexico and Asia.
According to this view, they put forward politics that is completely opposite to structuralism.
Policy suggestion: No matter the outbreak of crisis or economic recovery, we should let nature take its course.
Naturally, human intervention is not needed. Therefore, they severely criticized IM.
F's structural reform plan is actually equivalent to replacing Asian governments.
The new intervention in the economy not only helped the recovery of the Asian economy.
Help, and will inevitably affect the market mechanism to play a role. Meanwhile, they also mentioned that
Come out, although the International Monetary Fund to Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia, the three countries most affected by the crisis.
It has provided tens of billions of dollars in emergency assistance, but it is related to international finance every day.
Compared with more than 2 trillion dollars flowing in the market, it is just nine Niu Yi hairs, which is simply
It's no use. Some people even suggested that the International Monetary Fund should be dissolved.
3. Radicalism or New Economic Theory
This genre is small in number, but its members are complex, including
Nationalist leaders like Mahathir are in Asian countries, including developed countries.
Marxist economists in this country, and those who disagree with structuralism.
And experts and scholars in marketing.
This school is characterized by its emphasis on the origin of the Asian financial crisis.
Due to the differences in economic strength between developing countries and developed countries, it is necessary to
And the inherent defects of the current international economic and financial system. At the same time, they think
This paper discusses the rationality of the intervention and protection of weak countries' governments to the national economy.
Necessity, and try to put forward a unique development path. For example,
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir believes that the collapse of Asian currencies is a speculation of a few people.
The result of family "artificial manipulation". He also pointed out that due to international financial capital
The strength far exceeds that of developing countries, so the latter can't even decide on domestic products.
The exchange rate level of currency. His former deputy Anwar also pointed out these "evils"
The success of speculative activities proves that there are serious problems within the international economic system.
Defects.
It is worth noting that the views of these Asian countries are not only
With the support of Marxist scholars in developed countries, it has also been criticized.
Recognition by Marxist scholars and officials of some international economic institutions. For example,
An article in the Boston Globe pointed out that Asian governments are interested in the economy.
Although management may restrict the interests of some private enterprises,
But it is conducive to protecting the interests of society and the public. On the contrary, it is not regulated.
Greed will inevitably lead to injustice, which will inevitably lead to social unrest and
Stiglitz, vice president of the World Bank, also clearly pointed out that Asian financial turmoil.
The cause of the crisis is not too much government intervention, but too little.
For example, before establishing a sound regulatory framework, the necessary restrictions on foreign investment were lifted.
He further pointed out that many people will forget when criticizing Asian governments.
It is a basic fact that every loan must have not only the borrower but also the lender.
Therefore, both sides have "common responsibility" for the occurrence of the financial crisis.
Seen from the above, this first-class party is structuralist and market-oriented.
The policy suggestions all put forward different opinions. They think that the views of these two factions
This is actually beneficial to lenders in developed countries, but not to Asia.
European countries. Therefore, their policy suggestion is to establish a new international economy.
Institutions, or strengthen the functions of existing international institutions to short-term international mobility.
Dynamic capital implements strict management and supervision to prevent the recurrence of the Asian-style financial crisis.
Degree explosion. In addition, the Malaysian government recently implemented foreign capital.
Control; The Hong Kong SAR Government has also entered the stock market and exchanged ideas with international speculative capital.
Fight directly.
To sum up, when we examine these three schools respectively,
We can find that they all contain reasonable factors, because they are all to some extent.
To some extent, it reveals the causes of the Asian financial crisis and puts forward some countermeasures.
Suggestions. However, when we put them together, we can also find that
There are many irreconcilable differences between the factions.
Nevertheless, after more than a year of intense debate, the views of various factions have won.
After a relatively full exposition, they also got to know each other to a certain extent.
Close. For example, experts and scholars from many developed countries and international institutions also agree.
Therefore, recognizing the great destructiveness brought by the short-term free flow of international capital,
Self-criticism of the original practice of accusing Asia. At the same time, IMF
It is also gradually found that the original structural reform plan is too simple and blunt, and there is no
It has greatly improved the economic and social situation in Asia, indeed.
Ready to make adjustments. Similarly, Asia is also denouncing the "evil" of the West.
After the speculators, calm down and look at your own problems, which is also true in Korea.
In Asian countries such as China and Thailand, the newly elected * * * has begun to oppose corruption.
Corruption movement. Meanwhile, the famous international financier Soros himself.
Also frankly warned that we should not blindly believe in the market mechanism, because it does not.
Will automatically correct its uncontrolled situation.
Of course, due to the different theoretical bases and policy propositions of various schools,
Therefore, there is no consensus at present; Plus the spear of economic interests of all countries.
Shield, so many reasonable suggestions are still under discussion.
Finally, I would like to point out that due to the impact of the Asian financial crisis.
It has spread to Japan, Russia, South Asia, South Africa and Latin America.
Now it has spread to the United States, so all the above theoretical schools are arguing.
In this process, new materials are added at any time, and their views and suggestions are not.
The ground is being corrected. It can be seen from here that Asia broke out last year.
The financial crisis is not only "Asian" but also "financial".
Essentially, it is a crisis of the current international economic system and existing economic theories.
Therefore, this in-depth and lasting theoretical discussion is not only of great reality.
In addition, it means the subsequent ideological emancipation and possible theoretical breakthroughs.
1July 2, 997, the Asian financial turmoil swept through Thailand and the Thai baht depreciated. Soon, the storm swept through Malaysia, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. Break the scene of rapid economic development in Asia. The economies of some Asian economic powers began to slump and the political situation in some countries began to be chaotic.
So, what is the cause of the Asian financial turmoil?
After reading a series of reports about the Asian financial turmoil and my own research, I found the following reasons:
1. george soros's individuals and capitalist groups supporting him;
The influence of American economic interests and policies;
3. The economic model of Asian countries leads to.
1. george soros's personal factors and a capitalist group that supports him;
"Financial Predator" and "Sleeping Wolf" are the titles of this financial geek. He once said, "As far as financial operation is concerned, it has no morality or immorality, it is just an operation. Financial market does not belong to the category of morality, it is not immoral, and morality does not exist here at all, because it has its own rules of the game. I am a participant in the financial market. I will play this game according to the established rules. I will not violate these rules, so I won't feel guilty or responsible. Judging from the Asian financial turmoil, whether I speculate or not has no effect on the occurrence of financial events. It will still happen without hype. I don't think it's immoral to speculate in foreign currency. On the other hand, I abide by the operating rules. I respect these rules and care about them. As a moral person who cares about them, I want to ensure that these rules are conducive to building a good society, so I advocate changing some rules. I think some rules need to be improved. If improvement and improvement affect my own interests, I will still support it, because the rules that need to be improved may be the cause of the incident. "
As we all know, Soros's hype about Thai baht is the fuse of the Asian financial turmoil. He is an absolutely powerful and capable financier, but it is obviously despicable to achieve his goal of obtaining huge capital by playing with the political power of Asian countries.
Second, the impact of American economic interests and policies:
1949, Oriental Group, the predecessor of New China, was established. As the number one power of capitalism, the United States has a sense of crisis. He established a capitalist United front in the Asia-Pacific region through strong economic backing: South Korea, Japan, Taiwan Province Province and even Southeast Asia all became economic vassals of the United States. This has brought economic support to the rapid development of some Asian countries. In the 1970s, the economies of some countries in Southeast Asia developed rapidly.
But in 199 1, the disintegration of the Soviet Union marked the disintegration of the socialist lineup. Of course, the United States did not allow the Asian economy to continue to develop like this, so it began to recover economic losses. For Soros's behavior, he is conniving.
Third, the economic model of Asian countries leads to:
New Matai, Japan and South Korea are all export-oriented countries. They are highly dependent on the world market. The shake of the Asian economy will inevitably lead to a situation that will affect the whole body. Take Thailand as an example. Whether Thai baht should be bought and sold in the international market is not dominated by the government, nor does it have sufficient foreign exchange reserves. Facing the speculation of financiers, the national economy is vulnerable. The economy determines politics, so the political situation in Thailand is turbulent.
The Asian financial crisis has given me profound enlightenment.
(1) The openness of a country's economy is based on its strong economic strength and stable political power. Only strong economic strength and stable political power can we talk about real economic development.
(2) Only when economists have a correct outlook on life and values can they promote social progress and development, otherwise they will not be real economists and will hinder economic development.
(3) Only by improving the comprehensive national strength can a country be in an invincible position.
two
From June 65438 to June 0997, a financial crisis broke out in Asia, and the development process of this crisis was very complicated. By the end of 1998, it can be roughly divided into three stages: June 1997 to February12; 1998 1 month to1998 July; 1998 July to the end of the year.
The first stage: 65438+1July 2, 1997, Thailand announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system and implement a floating exchange rate system, which triggered a financial storm sweeping Southeast Asia. On the same day, the exchange rate of Thai baht against the US dollar fell by 17%, and financial markets such as foreign exchange were in chaos. Under the influence of the fluctuation of Thai baht, Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit have become the targets of international speculators. In August, Malaysia gave up its efforts to defend Ringgit. The Singapore dollar, which has been strong, has also been hit. Although Indonesia is the latest country to be "infected", it is the most seriously affected. 10 year 10 in late October, international speculators moved to Hong Kong, an international financial center, aiming at Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. Taiwan Province authorities suddenly abandoned the exchange rate of the new Taiwan dollar, depreciating by 3.46% a day, which increased the pressure on the Hong Kong dollar and Hong Kong stock markets. 1October 23rd 10, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1 2 1 1.47 points; On the 28th, it fell 1, 626,5438+0.80 points and fell below the 9000-point mark. Faced with fierce attacks from international financial speculators, the Hong Kong SAR Government reiterated that it would not change the current exchange rate system, and the Hang Seng Index rose to 10000. Then, 1 1 in mid-June, a financial storm broke out in South Korea in East Asia. 17 In June, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar fell to a record 1 008: 1. 2 1, the South Korean government had to seek help from the International Monetary Fund, which temporarily controlled the crisis. However, on 65438+February 13, the exchange rate of Korean won against the US dollar fell to 1 737.60: 1. The Korean won crisis has also hit the Japanese financial industry, which has invested heavily in South Korea. 1997 a series of Japanese banks and securities companies went bankrupt in the second half of the year. As a result, the Southeast Asian financial crisis evolved into the Asian financial crisis.
The second stage: 1998, Indonesia's financial turmoil resumed. In the face of the worst economic recession in history, the prescription prescribed by the International Monetary Fund for Indonesia failed to achieve the expected results. On February 1 1, the Indonesian government announced the implementation of the linked exchange rate system with a fixed exchange rate between the Indonesian rupiah and the US dollar to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah. This move was unanimously opposed by the International Monetary Fund, the United States and Western Europe. The International Monetary Fund threatened to withdraw its aid to Indonesia. Indonesia is in a political and economic crisis. On February 6/kloc-0, the exchange rate of the Indonesian rupiah against the US dollar fell below 10000: 1. Affected by this, the Southeast Asian currency market once again set off waves, with the Singapore dollar, Malaysian dollar, Thai baht and Philippine peso falling one after another. It was not until April 8 that Indonesia and the International Monetary Fund reached an agreement on a new economic reform plan that Southeast Asian currency markets were temporarily calm. 1997 The financial crisis in Southeast Asia put the Japanese economy, which is closely related to it, into trouble. The exchange rate of Japanese yen dropped from 1 15 at the end of June 1997 to 1 USD at the beginning of April 1998. In May and June, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen fell all the way, once approaching the mark of 150 yen 1 US dollar. With the sharp depreciation of the yen, the international financial situation is more uncertain and the Asian financial crisis continues to deepen.
The third stage: 65438+1At the beginning of August, 1998, international speculators launched a new round of attacks on Hong Kong in the face of the turmoil in the American stock market and the continuous decline of the yen exchange rate. The Hang Seng Index has dropped to over 6 600 points. The Hong Kong SAR Government retaliated, and the HKMA used the Exchange Fund to enter the stock market and futures market, absorbing Hong Kong dollars sold by international speculators and stabilizing the foreign exchange market at the level of 7.75 Hong Kong dollars 1 US dollar. After nearly a month of hard work, international speculators suffered heavy losses and failed to realize their attempt to use Hong Kong as a "super ATM" again. While international speculators lost in Hong Kong, they lost in Russia. 17 On August 7th, the Russian central bank announced that it would expand the floating range of the ruble against the US dollar to 6.0 ~ 9.5: 1 during the year, and postpone the repayment of foreign debts and government bonds. On September 2, the ruble depreciated by 70%. This led to a sharp drop in the Russian stock market and foreign exchange market, which triggered a financial crisis and even an economic and political crisis. The sudden change of Russian policy has greatly hurt international speculators who have invested huge amounts of money in Russian stock market, and has led to the overall violent fluctuations in the foreign exchange markets of American and European stock markets. If the Asian financial crisis was still regional before this, then the outbreak of the Russian financial crisis shows that the Asian financial crisis has gone beyond the regional scope and has global significance. By the end of 1998, the Russian economy was still in trouble. 1999, the financial crisis is over.
There are many reasons for the financial crisis from 65438 to 0997. Chinese scholars generally believe that it can be divided into direct trigger factors, internal basic factors and world economic factors.
The direct trigger factors include: (1) the impact of hot money in the international financial market. At present, there are about $7 trillion of international capital flowing around the world. Once international speculators find out which country or region is profitable, they will immediately attack the currency of that country or region through speculation to make huge profits in the short term. (2) Some Asian countries have improper foreign exchange policies. In order to attract foreign investment, they maintain a fixed exchange rate on the one hand and expand financial liberalization on the other, which provides opportunities for international speculators. For example, Thailand deregulated the capital market at 1992 before the financial system was straightened out, which made the short-term capital flow unimpeded and provided conditions for foreign speculators to speculate on the Thai baht. (3) In order to maintain a fixed exchange rate system, these countries have used foreign exchange reserves for a long time to make up for their deficits, resulting in an increase in foreign debt. (4) The foreign debt structure of these countries is unreasonable. In the case of more short-term and medium-term debts, once the outflow of foreign capital exceeds the inflow of foreign capital, and the domestic foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to make up for it, the devaluation of the country's currency is inevitable.
Internal basic factors include: (1) the high growth rate of overdraft economy and the expansion of non-performing assets. Maintaining a high economic growth rate is the common aspiration of developing countries. When the conditions for rapid growth become insufficient, in order to maintain the speed, these countries turn to foreign debt to maintain economic growth. However, due to the poor economic development, by the mid-1990s, some Asian countries were unable to repay their debts. In southeast Asian countries, the bubble blown by real estate only brought bad debts and bad debts of bank loans; As for South Korea, because it is too easy for large enterprises to obtain funds from banks, once the business conditions of enterprises are not good, the non-performing assets will expand immediately. The existence of a large number of non-performing assets in turn affects the confidence of investors. (2) The market system is immature. First, the government excessively interferes with the allocation of resources, especially the loan investment and projects in the financial system; The other is that the financial system, especially the supervision system, is not perfect. (3) The defect of "export substitution" mode. The "export substitution" model is an important reason for the economic success of many Asian countries. However, this model also has three shortcomings: first, when the economy develops to a certain stage, the production cost will increase and the export will be restrained, resulting in the imbalance of international payments in these countries; Second, when this export-oriented strategy becomes the development strategy of many countries, it will form mutual extrusion; Third, the gradual progress of products is a necessary condition for continuing to implement export substitution, and it is impossible to maintain competitiveness simply by relying on the cheap advantages of resources. These countries in Asia have not solved the above problems after achieving rapid growth.
World economic factors mainly include: (1) the negative impact of economic globalization. Economic globalization makes the economic ties of countries around the world closer and closer, but its negative effects can not be ignored, such as the intensification of interest conflicts between nation-States, the enhancement of capital mobility, and the difficulty in preventing crises. (2) Unreasonable international division of labor, trade and monetary system are unfavorable to third world countries. In the field of production, high-tech products and high-tech itself are still produced in developed countries, and the technical content of products is gradually declining to underdeveloped countries. Least developed countries can only do assembly work and produce primary products. In the field of exchange, developed countries can buy primary products at low prices and monopolize high prices to promote their own products. In the field of international finance and currency, the whole global financial system and system is also beneficial to financial powers.
The financial crisis has a far-reaching impact, exposing some deep-seated problems behind the rapid economic development of some Asian countries. In this sense, it is not only a bad thing, but also a good thing, which provides opportunities for developing countries in Asia to deepen reform, adjust industrial structure and improve macro-management. Because of the arduous task of reform and adjustment, it will take some time for these countries to fully restore their economies. However, the basic factors of economic growth in developing countries in Asia still exist. After overcoming internal and external difficulties, there is great hope for the improvement and further development of the Asian economic situation.
1997 1998, the Asian financial crisis, is another major event that has a far-reaching impact on the world economy after the world economic crisis in the 1930s. This financial crisis reflects that there are serious defects in the financial systems of all countries in the world, including many mature financial systems and economic operation modes that people think are selected through historical development. This financial crisis has exposed many problems, which need to be reflected. This financial crisis has brought us many new topics and raised the issue of establishing new financial laws and organizational forms. This book attempts to do research in this field. The central issue of this book is how to get rid of the century-old economic problems brought about by the money supply system formed by various countries and the debt derivative mechanism formed between enterprises under the new situation, when the paper money standard system has not been realized after the monetary system reform at the beginning of this century, including: (1) corporate debt burden, bank bad debts, frequent financial and debt crises; (2) Excessive social money supply, heavy banking business and increased difficulty in macro-control; (3) The government has difficulty in tax collection, and the financial crisis is intertwined with the financial crisis; (4) Inflation and social economy are intertwined, bubble economy occurs from time to time, economic fluctuations are frequent, and economic growth is often hindered; (5) Lack of enterprise funds brings operational difficulties, increases the bankruptcy rate and frequent enterprise merger activities, reduces the stability of enterprises, increases unemployment, and is not conducive to economic growth and social stability. (6) Unequal international monetary relations have brought a heavy burden to most countries in the world and caused many international economic problems. The deepest reason for the above problems is that the monetary system is not perfect and the new mechanism of inter-enterprise trading activities under the condition of socialized mass production is not fully understood. The idea of this book is to establish the authoritative intermediary system of enterprise transaction settlement-the national enterprise transaction intermediary settlement system, liberate the debt chain between enterprises, eliminate the bad debt base between enterprises and banks, thus avoiding the occurrence of debt and financial crisis, reducing the harm of inflation and bubble economy, and promoting stable economic growth. In this process of innovation, national tax revenue and fiscal expenditure will also be innovated to reduce the occurrence of fiscal deficit. At the same time, it will also produce the innovation of enterprise system, reduce the bankruptcy and merger of enterprises and enhance the stability of enterprises. In addition, it will also innovate international settlement methods and reform the use of international currency. This process is not a simple treatment of economic problems, but a correction of serious defects in the paper money system, an innovation in the money supply and circulation system, and a major change in the financial system. Moreover, this change has brought many adjustments to the economic operation mechanism.
The outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, although there are specific internal factors in each country: economy.
The economy continues to overheat, the economic bubble expands, and the blindness of introducing foreign capital-too many short-term foreign debts and an unhealthy banking system.
The crisis also has its external causes, such as collusion between banks and enterprises, large debts of enterprises, "bad" behavior of international speculators,
However, people should go further and find out the essential factors of the crisis-modern financial economy and economic integrity.
Spheroidization trend.
Liu believes that the internal content of the financial crisis is the capitalist economic crisis, world 1929- 1933.
The severe financial crisis led to a huge economic panic. Mexican financial crisis 1994 and eastern financial crisis 1997.
The subprime mortgage crisis first occurred in the capitalist world. It can be seen that the financial crisis has its institutional roots and is a capitalist crisis.
Machine. The possibility of financial crisis exists in the inherent spontaneous monetary credit mechanism of market economy. Once financial activities
Out of control, the contradiction between money and capital lending intensified, and the financial crisis appeared. Based on highly developed financial activities
The characteristic modern market economy itself is a high-risk economy, which contains the possibility of financial crisis.
Economic globalization and integration is another major feature of the contemporary world economy. Economic globalization is a supermarket economy.
The highest form of national boundary development. After World War II, with the further development of commodity relations between countries, countries are more interdependent in economy.
Dependence, frequent international flows of goods, services, capital, technology and knowledge, and the trend of economic globalization.
A little more vivid. The globalization of financial activities is a leap in the new allocation of resources in the contemporary world and economically backward countries and regions.
However, with the explosive development of international credit and investment, its internal contradictions deepened and the financial crisis broke out.
It will inevitably break out in the weakest link of imperfect system.
To sum up, the modern market economy not only has a crisis arising from overproduction and insufficient demand, but also
There are also uncontrolled financial credit behavior, excessive use of new financial instruments and excessive speculation in the capital market.
Crisis. In the capitalist world, the crisis of this market operation mechanism is catalyzed and aggravated by the basic system.
Financial crisis is inevitable not only in capitalist countries, but also in the socialist market economy system.
The imperfect financial system and out-of-control financial activities are the endogenous factors of the financial crisis. Because of this, at present in our country
In the system transformation, people should attach great importance to and earnestly do a good job in the construction of a market economic system regulated by the government, especially
We should vigorously improve the financial system and enhance our ability to guard against endogenous and exogenous financial crises.
After the outbreak of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, people have conducted extensive and in-depth discussions on the causes of the crisis.
Pointing out the internal and external causes of the crisis, Liu further pointed out the deep-seated reason, namely modernity.
The monetary and credit mechanism led to the outbreak of the crisis. As long as the modern market economy exists, monetary credit exists in the market economy
Mechanism may lead to financial crisis. However, it only happens in countries with imperfect systems and the weakest countries.
This is no exception in socialist market economy countries. Even so, we can still improve the financial system.
Systematic prevention of financial crisis, Liu He pointed out the ways to prevent financial crisis.
Have a far-reaching impact on the future of Asia and the world.