The method of making the futures cycle bigger and smaller is more like a trading method than a triple trend trading system.
It is a method derived from the trend trading method. The trend trading method is simple and clear in judging the trend, giving people a feeling of being suddenly enlightened. It is the only good book I have read 20 times in China, and every time I read it, I get new gains.
But friends who have studied the trend trading method may find that the success rate is not very high only by this method, because from the book alone, it
To make a chart with a small period, we must grasp the trend of the sky chart. In fact, it also tells us that making a list requires cooperation in different periods.
In view of the above situation, combined with my experience in making orders, will the trend trading method combined with triple filtration greatly improve the success rate? The answer is yes.
This is the triple trend trading system, or triple trend trading method, which I am going to write today.
Its core content is to look big and do small, follow the big trend to make a small periodic chart, only do the trend, not grab the rebound.
Before reading the following contents, I hope readers will finish reading the two books, Trend Trading and Beating the God of Stocks. If you don't study them in depth, you may not understand the following contents.
Chapter 1: System and Cycle Settings
Part 1: System Settings
Adding the 60-year moving average and MACD( 12269) to the chart is enough. Make the chart as clean and simple as possible, with many indicators, but it is not easy to analyze.
Generally speaking, I look at a system. If I see many indicators there, I will understand that this system is limited. Everyone should always remember that the index changes according to the price, not the price changes with the index.
Why do you want to add the 60-year moving average and MACD indicator here? Because the 60 moving average often provides strong support, and many markets are often pulled back to the vicinity of the 60 moving average to start a new round of market. Just like the picture above, it is often near the 60 moving average, announcing the end of the callback.
And MACD can help us distinguish the true and false of this signal. When there is a single signal, but the MACD deviates, then this signal should be abandoned.
Section 2: Coordination of Time
My favorite cycle combination is:
D 1-H4-M30
H4-H 1-M 15
Of course, those who like to do long-term work can also watch it.
MN-W 1-D 1
Among them, D 1, H4 and MN are the time periods for you to judge the big cycle trend, H4, H 1 and W 1 are your main trading time periods, and M30, M 15 and D 1 are the time periods for you to enter the market accurately and set a small stop loss.
You can choose D 1-H4-M30 for long-term trading and H4-H 1-M 15 for intraday trading, depending on your personality.
As long as it suits you, but I have to remind you that at least you can only see M 15. You don't need to look at the picture below M 15, it's too small and meaningless. And this M 15 can only be used as an accurate entry point, and it can never be used as your main trading time. The minimum main trading period is H 1, and it is meaningless if it is below H 1.
Therefore, this system is not suitable for fast-forward and fast-out hat-snatching players, so pay attention to this.
The futures cycle looks big, but it is small. Personally, I have always advocated a small cycle and a large moving average. Why? Because of the reversal of the daily cycle, it can be seen clearly from 5 minutes or 15 minutes.
For example, the 2-moving average of the daily cycle, a decent unilateral, broke the 2-moving average and you ran and ate hundreds of points. 5 moving average, 10 moving average, eating 1000 points is not a problem.
Small cycle, large moving average, lies in being able to sensitively grasp the inflection point of large cycle.
For example, the daily cycle of Australia and the United States in the last three days, just use the 2-day moving average, and the closing price of the three days is along the 2-day moving average.
Then you convert it into 15 minutes+192 moving average. How many points do you think you can get?
The idea of exchanging time for space in a light warehouse is to use a small cycle and a large moving average to make a small moving average inflection point in the daily cycle.
The core principle is: the daily cycle K line is stable and the moving average is smooth.
It greatly filters out all kinds of burrs and unnecessary stop losses of small periods and small moving averages.
And your risk is that when you enter the market, the daily cycle is not a turning point, but a shock. However, most daily periodic shocks run along the 2-EMA for two consecutive days. At this time, your small cycle and big moving average can also get a certain price difference.
If a filtering rule is added: the daily cycle breaks through the 2-day moving average for two consecutive days, and then the rebound or retreat of the 3-day moving average approaches the 192 moving average, the success rate will be improved a little.
The trend of daily cycle is absolutely stable relative to small cycle. Using the thinking of small cycle and large moving average is to respect the stable trend of large cycle.
You can do the trend of 5-cycle moving average, or you can do the trend of 10 moving average. You just need to wait for the turning point in the small period and the big moving average with a magnifying glass, and then wait for the opportunity to shoot when you are close to the big moving average.
For more than 20 pairs of currencies, you only need to take turns to see whether the trend of the daily periodic moving average is smooth, and then switch to the small periodic moving average and wait for the inflection point. If the turning point fails, you stop. Your stop loss also represents a real turning point in the daily cycle. Is your stop loss still wrong?
Stop loss for turning failure may be reversal or shock.
Then you bet it's a reversal, and if it's a real reversal, you start making money. If it's shock, you give up. At this time, you have stopped the loss twice, so you give up this currency.
Because the objective law tells us that the moving average is smooth, when you have a small moving average, the success rate of entering the market is biased towards you, the stop loss is very small, and the spread earned by doing it right is more than a few hundred points.
How does futures define the time period in trading? Many friends who have just done trading know that in order to make a profit, we must first learn to follow the trend, but we often don't know which trend to follow. How come?
As traders with technical analysis as the core means, we need to understand some basic truths, one of which is to solve the direction of trading through technical analysis and judge the level of the market. If the direction and level are determined, then you will have the basis for going in and out within the time frame, and the return-risk ratio can be basically determined. These are closely related to the time period. Whether doing long-term trend tracking, short-term band trading or even ultra-short-term intraday trading, it is inseparable from this core issue. How do you follow the trend? However, we can often see that the trend of each time period is opposite, and the trend of small cycle is sometimes the adjustment of large cycle. The failure to break through the small-cycle trend may be the starting point for the end of the large-cycle adjustment. So what should we do?
Let's simply define the time frame, that is, take the time difference of 4-5 times as an independent time period. For example, a month has four weeks, a week has five trading days, a day has four hours, 1 hour has four trading hours 15 minutes, and so on. Each time frame is sequential. When trading, we mainly pay attention to the trend of the upper and lower time frames. Never jump directly from the monthly chart to the daily chart or hourly chart. The time period is actually a model for us to look at the market trend. For example, the weekly chart is a telescope and the daily chart is a close-up view, then the hourly chart is a magnifying glass and the 15 minute chart is a microscope.
So, on the same picture, how are the size cycles related? What is the relationship between them? Simply put, if the core trading chart is an hourly chart, then the direction of the 20-unit moving average of the hourly chart is the core trend of the hourly chart, that is, the hourly trend. If you want to follow the trend, don't go against the 20-unit moving average of this cycle. Similarly, the 5-unit moving average on the hourly chart is the 20-unit moving average on the 15 minute chart! The 20-unit moving average on the hourly chart is the 5-day line on the daily line. Having said that, everyone should understand how to treat the relationship between the upper and lower cycles. What is to follow the trend and follow the trend? If the trend of this cycle is the same as that of the next cycle, then the trend will be relatively stable. According to this principle, we can find the breakthrough point of price in time, that is, the critical point of price change. Even we can simply look at whether the market will cause shocks and avoid them from the time frame.
With the above basic understanding, let's talk about a basic principle of time period:
First, the big cycle controls the small cycle. The big cycle is not over, and the small cycle will not end. This is equivalent to the big cycle is the overall strategy and the small cycle is the specific route. In other words, if the trend of the daily line is not finished, then the hourly line will eventually move in the direction of the daily line. So if we are ready to enter the arena, please see if the last cycle (big cycle) matches? See if small loops are also supported. Doing so is the best filter for your trading signals, and the chances of winning profits will be greatly improved, because you can't have a contrarian order in your hand. Second, the market in a small cycle is summed up as a trend in a big cycle. If the trend in the small cycle is abnormal (the strength and intensity of the movement mode), the possible changes in the large cycle will be informed in advance. That is to say, at a certain moment, the small cycle shows a special trend, which is contrary to the large cycle, and the trend is very strong, showing the continuity of slope, K-line strength and time, which may lead to the reversal of the trend.
Let's imagine that if the directions of the big cycle and the small cycle are inconsistent, such as the contradiction between the weekly line and the daily line, the following phenomena will generally appear: 1, which is equivalent to a fight between the big cycle and the small cycle, indicating that the chart has no trend. At this time, you need to wait patiently, because this is the most troublesome and easy time for trend traders to lose money. We call it form or non-tradable period, which means that the price fluctuates irregularly, and there is no obvious price trend in both big and small cycles. If you can't control your own list in this place, you will often stop losses repeatedly. 2. Adjust the next level, and continue to follow the original trend after adjustment, that is, the time period direction of this level. At this time, the trend is resurgent, which is also the entry point or jiacang point of our trading cycle. I usually don't leave the market for low-cycle adjustment, and I will add positions after he adjusts. How to judge the resurgence of the trend, I will introduce it separately, because this place is a place where many traders are confused. ) 3. trigger a greater degree of adjustment, that is, cause the trend of my trading cycle to change. For example, if I make an hourly line, then the 15 minute chart shows a wave opposite to the hourly chart, and the time is longer. The trend of my hourly chart changes (the chart shows the direction change of the 20-unit moving average of the hourly chart). Pay attention to the daily chart at this time. If the breakthrough on the hourly chart fails or the progress is not smooth, it is often the entry point of the previous level (the adjustment of the daily level has ended, in fact, in most cases, at this time, the next level, that is, the 15 minute chart, will show a trend in the same direction as the daily level, with great strength and speed). I usually avoid this kind of cyclical adjustment. 4, directly lead to the reversal of the big cycle trend.
How can we know in advance that the above phenomenon will happen and adjust the position in time?
It depends on the specific way of moving forward in a small period, which is embodied in the slope (speed) of movement, the shape (strength) of the K-line, the coordination of quantity and energy, and kinetic energy (the impact of each unit quantity on the price, that is, acceleration), which can be reflected in the strength of the market, the strength and the subsequent sustainability. The appearance of these adjustment points often has certain characteristics in time and space, so we should be vigilant at some key time nodes and space nodes! This involves a complex relationship between patterns and trends, which I will explain in detail later.
Well, if we know the influence of time frame on price fluctuation, we will try to make a single order. First of all, we will look for (big weekly line): the purpose is to
1, determine the general direction. Only with the cooperation of the general direction can the market go further and smoother (signal filtering, waiting for opportunities).
2. The complex adjustment in the daily line is very regular on the weekly line, which clarifies the direction of the overall strategy. (Try to avoid the form of trading cycle)
3. The adjustment in the daily line may be 1-3 K lines in the weekly line, which is convenient for timely admission and is also conducive to maintaining the existing position. (We need to judge the level of adjustment and how to quantify it)
4. If the big cycle does not cooperate, shorten the time frame or lower expectations. (Opportunities should be treated differently)
Then we look down (hour line): the purpose is: 1. Adjust the trend after the end of the daily wave, and it will be reflected in the hourly line in advance. We walked out of the trend, entered the market in time and found the exact entry point. (that is, Dashun, Zhongshun, Xiaoshun, let's have a good understanding of this feature. In fact, in the trading order cycle, we often go against the trend! ) 2. Observe the adjusted movement mode and judge whether it is normal. (Whether the space-time structure is reasonable and normal will be explained in detail later. Many of our businessmen are lost in this place. 3. After entering the market, if the market goes out of the trend, use the peaks and valleys of the hourly line as the defensive position.
Yin is within Yang, not opposite to Yang. Enemy yang is not as good as enemy yin, and * * * enemy is not as good as dividing the enemy. Avoid its spirit, overcome its fatigue and wait for it. Many times, we have to go against the trend during the trading period! Find the direction in the big cycle, which often indicates the great financial strength and the formed trend inertia; Find a point in a small cycle, and the market rarely rises or falls in a straight line. Market participants have a stop loss, a profit out of the market, a wait-and-see opportunity to enter the market, a profit plus a position, and a loss plus a position! There are many forests, and so on! The market trend is naturally tortuous! If you take the bus just before and after the trend starts, congratulations, you are lucky! Don't go out for a little advantage! Judging that the general trend has not changed, decisively increase the position when the market is adjusted back. If you make a reverse adjustment, it is the best time for you to escape! The 28 th Law is an iron law, which is universally applicable. In addition to doing high frequency, 80% of my money is earned by 20% of my bills, and 80% of my money lost is also paid by 20% of my bills! So you can average how much you only lose each time, and don't leave every time! The greedy must be greedy! How can the account be stretched in a straight line without a few explosive bills! Greed is not guilty, it should be timely! In the transaction, extremes meet, and two forces compete with each other, which is the general trend. Finally, I would like to remind you that the entry and exit in the actual trading process are far more complicated than the above, and many details involved will be explained in detail next time. Today I just take this as a basic rule and explain it to you. The core premise is to realize the importance of the trading time frame, because it is the most reasonable analysis method to track the price changes, which has strong universality and is suitable for any commodity market. Grasping the trading time frame will greatly improve your winning rate. And really regulate when to take the first step. Secondly, because everyone's personality is different, it has important reference significance for traders to choose the appropriate trading cycle. Although I rarely use the EMA as the basis for trading now, the reason is the same, especially for beginners who have just entered the market, this thing must be mastered well. Some traders judge that the direction is right, because they are hesitant or because the market is suddenly too fast, they will not enter the market, and then wait for the step-by-step list to strengthen the callback. Of course, this is whimsical and wishful thinking at the beginning, and it will not end well in the end.
We make a deal by selling at a high price and earning at a low price. How long can the current increase go up? How long can the current decline fall? Is it worth a gamble? Trading is the future market trend, but how far is your future? After the cycle is determined, the stop loss position and the target position are expected to be traceable!
& gt& gt& gt More exciting next page? About the periodicity of futures trading?