As of mid-April, the national pig price has rebounded slightly for three consecutive weeks, stopping the continuous downward trend of 16 weeks; In many places in the south, the price of pigs varies from 6 yuan to 8 yuan.
According to the analysis, the spot price of live pigs in late March is very likely to become a low point in the year, but the upside of pig prices this year is still limited.
When the new pig cycle will start, the market needs further verification.
Four factors push up pig prices.
Since April, pork prices have rebounded.
According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of mid-April, the price of live pigs in China has rebounded slightly for three consecutive weeks, stopping the decline of 16 weeks and alleviating the losses of farmers.
The data shows that this round of pork price increase is a nationwide general increase.
As of April 2 1 day, the prices of live pigs in Guangdong, Hunan, Sichuan and Liaoning all increased by more than 15% compared with the end of March, with Guangdong having the largest increase, reaching 2 1.07%.
In the northeast, the price of pigs rose directly from the prefix 5 to the 7 yuan period; In many markets in the south, the price of pigs has hit 8 yuan/Jin since 6 yuan.
This round of rise exceeded the expectations of the industry.
Performance of the relevant undertaker of a listed pig enterprise: According to our investigation, at present, enterprises are facing great financial pressure, and the actual output of group enterprises in various regions has decreased. The recent supply reduction has driven this round of price increase.
Moreover, the price increase in the southern region is obvious, which has driven the national price increase.
Analyzing the reasons for the recent increase in pig prices, there are four key factors:
First, the pork production capacity was further optimized.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of the first quarter of 2022, the number of fertile sows in China will be 4 1.85 million, down by 8.3%, which is the normal number of 41.002.1.00 million/%,and the basis will return to the reasonable productivity range.
Second, the purchasing and storage work boosted market confidence and pushed up the rising sentiment.
In 2022, the state has completed the purchase of four batches of central reserve pork, and accumulated frozen pork1580,000 tons.
The fifth batch of purchasing and storage work was started on April 22nd, with a planned reserve of 40,000 tons.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) previously stated that if the price of live pigs continues to run at a low level, the state will continue to carry out purchasing and storage work, and take the lead in local governments to pay close attention to purchasing and storage, so as to promote the return of live pig prices to a fair range as soon as possible.
Third, affected by epidemic control factors, on the one hand, the demand for frozen meat in some areas soared, on the other hand, due to poor logistics and market control, the flow of live pigs decreased, and some slaughter enterprises had to raise prices to buy live pigs.
Fourth, the holiday will stimulate the pork market.
With the approach of May Day, Dragon Boat Festival and other festivals, in order to promote people's consumption and stimulate the economy, various regions will issue a large number of consumer vouchers, and the expenditure may increase, which will support the further recovery of pig prices.
It is worth noting that this round of pork price increase is similar to that of last year10-165438+10.
According to the data at that time, as of 202 1,1.25, the national average pork price was 24.50 yuan/kg, which continued to rise for six weeks, with a cumulative increase of 36%.
Important influencing factors include the promotion of seasonal demand (southern pickled sausages, northern enema), multiple rounds of central and local purchasing and storage, and the loss of farmers to reduce the weight of pigs.
At that time, the broad concept was that the current round of pig prices still lacked the basis for a sharp rise, and a comprehensive reversal still needed to wait. It is estimated that there will be a stable market in the near future.
The production capacity has not been completely eliminated, and the pig enterprises have expanded against the trend.
Judging from the sales volume in the first quarter, the pig enterprises have not slowed down the pace of slaughtering pigs.
The data shows that 7 of the 10 large pig enterprises insist on increasing sales.
Among them, Aonong Bio and Wen's shares increased by 90% year-on-year, and the sales analysis in the first quarter reached1046,800 and 4,023,500 respectively.
In the first quarter, the sales champion was Muyuan Co., Ltd., and the cumulative sales in the first three months reached1381700,000, a year-on-year growth rate of 79%, making it the first pig enterprise to break through10 million this year.
Among them, the monthly slaughter in March reached 5.986 million heads, a record high.
10 sales of listed pig enterprises Q 1 titanium media tabulation
According to the statistics of Invented Titanium Media App, only three of the 10 large-scale listed pig enterprises reduced their production in the first quarter, and the resolutions were Zhengbang Technology, Tianbang Co., Ltd. and Tang Renshen.
Among them, the sales volume of Tang Renshen in the first quarter was 383,400 heads, down 17. 19% year-on-year, which was the biggest drop among the top ten pig enterprises.
Affected by the downward trend of pig prices, the sales revenue of most pig enterprises also fell sharply.
In addition to Aonong Bio, the other nine pig enterprises all disclosed the sales revenue data in the first quarter.
Among them, Muyuan's sales in the first quarter increased by 9% year-on-year, and the income of the other eight pig enterprises declined to varying degrees.
Zhengbang Technology's sales declined the most, reaching 65%, far exceeding its 6% sales decline.
It is worth noting that after the rapid expansion of production capacity in the past year, departmental pig enterprises are under pressure and need to rely on selling assets to maintain their operations.
Take Zhengbang Technology as an example. By the end of the third quarter of 20021,Zhengbang Technology's asset-liability ratio was 75.23%, which was 16.67% higher than the end of 2020. Its recent loan application range was 65.438+0.399 billion yuan, up 465.438+0.76% year-on-year; Non-current liabilities due within one year reached 654.38+59.7 million yuan, up 39. 1.3% year-on-year.
In March 2022, Zhengbang Technology announced that it intends to directly or indirectly sell all or part of the shares of eight holding subsidiaries. The total amount of assets bought and sold in this cooperation is about 2 billion to 2.5 billion yuan.
Zhengbang Technology expects the investment income of this transaction to be 1 1 billion to10.9 billion yuan, accounting for 19. 15% to 33.08% of the audited net profit in the latest fiscal year.
Faced with overcapacity and cyclical downturn, there are not a few pig enterprises that choose to expand against the trend.
According to a restricted equity incentive plan disclosed by Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. on March 24, the purpose of the company's performance appraisal from 2022 to 2023 is: based on the pig sales in 20021year, the growth rate of pig sales in 2022 is not less than 25%; Based on the pig sales in 20021year, the growth rate of pig sales in 2023 will not be less than 40%.
In addition, Wen's shares revealed in a research activity that the target for slaughter in 2022 is1800-20 million, an increase of 30%-50% compared with 202 1; Tianbang shares also performed in investors' questions. The slaughter in early 2022 is expected to be 6 million, which is 202 1 increase 1.8 million.
Analysts who have been tracking the pork farming industry for a long time told Titanium Media App that in the downward period of the cycle, large listed pig enterprises are better than medium and micro pig enterprises in terms of financing ability and anti-risk ability.
At present, pig enterprises have not significantly slowed down the pace of capacity expansion. Their radical expansion has not only further squeezed the living space of retail farmers, but also put small and medium-sized pig enterprises that do not have the upper hand in capital to face the survival test.
Beware of cyclical markets.
Behind the recent rebound in pork prices is the intensification of losses in the pig industry.
Some analysts pointed out that since June 20021year, the domestic pig breeding industry has been losing money for nearly 8 months.
According to domestic media statistics, the total losses of the five leading pig enterprises in the first quarter of this year will reach 654.38+0.2 billion yuan.
This is reflected in the financial situation of the first pig enterprise in 202 1.
In addition to the pre-increase in Mu Yuan's performance, Pig Enterprise announced a loss (including pre-loss) in 20021.
According to Wen's shares whose annual report has been disclosed, its net profit loss in 20021year reached134 million yuan, down 280.5438+0% year-on-year.
At present, pig breeding has not turned a profit. A pig lost 327 yuan in March, thanks to 153 yuan compared with February.
Yang Zhenhai, director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that according to the expert group's speculation, with the accumulation of favorable factors such as the large number of newborn piglets and high feed cost, pig breeding is expected to turn a profit in the third quarter, but the constant factors still exist.
In fact, China experiences a pig cycle every 3-4 years, the essence of which is the mismatch between supply and demand, which ultimately affects the price fluctuation.
The current pig cycle began to rise from June 20 18, and the highest weekly average price soared to 20 1 1 June 40.9 yuan/kg, an increase of 262%, and then fluctuated at a high level in 13 months, from 202 1 to 65438.
At present, pork prices have been hovering at a low level for several months, and there are many speculations in the industry that there is limited room for the downward trend of pig prices. The second quarter of this year is the starting point of a new round of pig cycle.
Some analysts also pointed out that we should be cautious about this wave of rebound in pork prices.
Xin, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that with the approach of festivals such as May Day and Dragon Boat Festival, the cost may increase, which will further support the pig price.
In terms of production, since the output peak is around May, the increase of output will slow down slowly, and it is estimated that the balance between supply and demand may be basically achieved in the third quarter.
Kong, a researcher in the hog industry of Everbright Futures Research Institute, said that from the basic situation, the supply pressure in the hog market has not been effectively alleviated.
The increase in the price of live pigs does not have the trend of upward trend.
Statistics show that since the number of fertile sows reached 45.46 million in June last year, the number of fertile sows began to decline continuously.
At present, the number of sows can be 4 1.85 million. Although it has returned to a reasonable productivity range, it is still slightly higher than the normal number.
It should be understood that the number of fertile sows represents the production capacity of pigs.
It remains to be seen whether the subsequent pig production capacity can be further reduced.
In late March, the spot price of live pigs is very likely to become a low point in the year.
However, there is limited room for the price of live pigs to continue to rise recently.
Lv Pin, a live pig analyst at Everbright Futures, said that the game between the breeding end and the slaughtering end determines the supply of live pigs in the near future. However, if the current off-season price is high, the upward space of live pig prices in the near future will be very limited.
Therefore, it is necessary to further verify whether the current pig cycle is over and whether the pig price can continue to strengthen.