In the crude oil market, the crude oil futures 10 month contract of new york Commercial Futures Exchange rose by 0.65% on 24th, and the settlement price closed at 74.37 USD/barrel. Recently, the favorable news of the US real estate market continues to push up the price of crude oil. In July, the sales of second-hand houses in the United States reached 5.2 million units at an annual rate, higher than the 4.9 million units in June and the 5 million units expected by analysts, with an increase of 7.2% from the previous month, far better than the expected increase of 2. 1%. China's strong demand for crude oil also brought support. In July, the apparent demand for oil in China increased by 3.5% compared with the same period of last year, rising for the fourth consecutive month. After China raised the price of refined oil twice in June, the output of refineries rose to a record high. This encourages the buying enthusiasm of the market. Moreover, the crude oil data to be released by the U.S. Department of Energy may once again show a decline in inventories and an improvement in oil demand, which will bring stimulus. However, crude oil above $70 put pressure on the economy, and the upward momentum decreased. The long-term strength of crude oil has been established, which is beneficial to the price of natural rubber.
Weather conditions: Thailand's natural rubber producing areas are cloudy in central and northern Thailand and cloudy in the south; Natural rubber producing areas in Malaysia, with rain in the south of Malay Peninsula and rain in the north of kalimantan island; Indonesian natural rubber producing areas are cloudy in the north of Sumatra equator, cloudy in the south of Sumatra equator and rainy in the south of kalimantan island. Natural rubber producing area in China, rainy in Hainan, cloudy in Yunnan. The weather will not cause great obstacles to the production and transportation of the producing areas.
In the spot market, on August 25th, the official offer of Malaysian standard rubber SMR on September 20th FOB fell by 0.4% in early trading, and the official offer of tobacco rubber RSS FOB in Bangkok, Thailand rose by 0.7% in March. The spot price remained stable and refused to fall, because the supply declined, and traders were waiting for the arrival of the procurement peak in China. The recent good news from the US economy has also formed support. The spot market will not bring pressure to the futures market.
On the other hand, although the domestic butadiene quotation rose to 1.2 million yuan/ton, which continued to support the cost of cis-butadiene rubber, the slow demand for cis-butadiene rubber terminals led to poor transactions in various markets, and some manufacturers lacked confidence in holding goods, which led to lower delivery prices, and some market prices showed a downward trend, which was upside down with the manufacturers' quotations. Due to the sharp drop in international crude oil and natural rubber, the market price of styrene-butadiene rubber has fallen back one after another, gradually showing an upside-down situation. Some merchants have a strong intention to ship goods, but the mood of end users and traders is depressed, and the transaction volume is mostly poor. The sluggish demand for synthetic rubber affects the price trend, while the firm cost limits the downside and slightly drags down natural rubber.
On the whole, the global economy continues to improve, and good news comes from developed regions such as Europe, America and Japan, which is conducive to the long-term demand for bulk commodities. The price of crude oil is approaching the highest point this year. Although the rising kinetic energy has declined, the strength is very obvious, which supports the chemical products. This will push up the cost of synthetic rubber and indirectly support natural rubber. However, the current price has lost its appeal because the government's stimulus to the economy is weakening. China's government has tightened its supervision over bank credit and real estate market credit. Although the policy is still loose on credit, it cannot dispel the doubts of the market. Natural rubber fell under this pressure, but there is no room for decline, and the futures market will continue to remain stable.