Since this year, with the strong recovery of the world economy, the global demand for crude oil has greatly exceeded people's expectations. Uncertainties such as terrorist attacks, strikes and political turmoil in oil-producing countries frequently occur, and speculators take the opportunity to speculate. On August 20th, the international oil price climbed to the highest level of $49.40 in more than 20 years, which aroused serious concern from all walks of life. The acceleration of China's economic growth leads to the increasing demand for crude oil, the increasing dependence on oil imports, and the contradiction between domestic oil supply and demand is extremely prominent. The sharp rise in international oil prices will certainly have a certain negative impact on China's economic operation and residents' lives. So, how big is this impact? Is it within our tolerance? How long will high oil prices last? What countermeasures should be taken? This paper will analyze this. 6GF/5s: The main factor pushing up the international oil price X Generally speaking, the factors that determine the international crude oil price are as follows: First, the dependence of the world economy on crude oil (indispensable and irreplaceable) and the limitation of crude oil reserves and production make the crude oil price very sensitive to the factors that affect supply and demand, and it fluctuates greatly. Second, the imbalance of crude oil supply and demand structure makes the relationship between crude oil supply and demand tend to be tense. Every link from reserve, production, transportation, refining to sales is very important, and the change of factors in any link will affect the fluctuation of crude oil price. Third, although the supply and demand of crude oil are roughly equal, any variable of supply and demand or related variables that affect supply and demand often determines the price trend in a certain period. Uncertainties such as wars, terrorist attacks, oil workers' strikes and other emergencies have seriously affected or even influenced the trend of oil prices. Fourthly, under normal circumstances, the decline of crude oil inventory has little supporting effect on oil prices during economic recession, while the increase of crude oil inventory has a greater destructive effect on oil prices; In the stage of economic recovery and prosperity, the increase of crude oil inventory has a stabilizing effect on oil prices, but the decline of crude oil inventory will greatly support the rise of oil prices. Fifth, in the economic recession, the demand for crude oil decreases and the price falls, so it is often difficult for oil-producing countries to reduce production, and increasing production will accelerate the decline of oil prices; However, when the economy recovers, the demand for crude oil increases and the oil price rises, increasing production has limited effect on stabilizing the oil price rise, while reducing production will obviously aggravate the price rise. Sixth, speculation and market expectations in the crude oil market often increase the fluctuation of crude oil prices. The influence of speculative factors in the international crude oil market on crude oil prices is 10%-20%. (A-Xa analysis shows that the recent sharp rise in international oil prices is mainly the result of the following six factors: h} @> 1, and the global economic recovery has continuously promoted the increase in oil demand, which is the basic inducement. Since the beginning of this year, the global economy has grown rapidly, and the demand for crude oil has exceeded the expectations of international authorities in advance. In particular, the economic growth of the United States and China, the two largest crude oil consumers in the world, is strong, and the economic situation of Japan, the third largest crude oil consumer, has also improved significantly. According to the latest forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global daily demand for crude oil increased by 3.3% in 2004 and by 3.9% in the first half of this year. The total daily demand of the global market is 82.2 million barrels (see Figure 2). Global oil demand only increased by 0.78% in 2002, and rose to 2.2% in 2003. Therefore, the continuous improvement of the global economy in the past two years has led to a sharp increase in oil demand close to its maximum supply capacity, leaving supply and demand in a fragile balance, which is the basic factor that triggered this wave of rising oil prices. ! ~r 2, the surplus capacity of OPEC is a secondary factor. According to the forecast of us energy information administration (EIA), the daily supply of global crude oil in 2004 was 82.7 million barrels, an increase of 4.2%. Among them, the OPEC crude oil supply was 28.8 million barrels per day, up 6.3% year-on-year. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, the global crude oil supply is slightly greater than the demand this year. However, the commercial inventory of major developed countries is at a historical low level, which makes the global supply relatively tight. In particular, the surplus capacity of OPEC countries is very limited, only about 1 0,000-10.5 million barrels per day. Except for Saudi Arabia, all other member countries have produced oil at full capacity. Although there is no global supply shortage, it is certain that the output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is approaching the existing capacity limit, which makes people worry about the supply prospect of world crude oil. 0qp 3, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to cut production at the beginning of the year, adding fuel to the fire. At the beginning of this year, because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was worried about the drop in oil prices and adopted the policy of limiting production and protecting prices, OPEC's misjudgment of the situation made the oil market fuel the fire. At the ministerial meeting on February 10, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to reduce the daily limit of crude oil by 1 10,000 barrels from April 1 0, and the price of crude oil in the international market rose accordingly. Although the oil price of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has exceeded the price control ceiling of $28 for more than 80 consecutive trading days, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has not started the mechanism of increasing production, but reduced production by 654.38+100,000 barrels per day to maintain high oil prices. In addition, due to the strong recovery of the world economy, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is not too worried that high oil prices will impact the world economy and cause mutual losses. Trying to keep oil prices at a high level is naturally an ideal choice for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. 0Tx6 4。 The exchange rate of the dollar has fallen. Since April 2002, the dollar has been depreciating continuously. Although it has rebounded recently, oil export revenue has been greatly reduced because oil exports have been mainly denominated in dollars for a long time. Some countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries believe that the depreciation of the US dollar leads to the decline in the real price of oil denominated in US dollars, which is 2-3 dollars lower than their bottom line (25 dollars). Therefore, the countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have actually given up the earlier promise of "starting the automatic production increase mechanism when the oil price is higher than $28 for 20 consecutive days", and instead tend to control the oil price at the upper limit of the price band. Uncertainties such as QQ93 5 and terrorist attacks are the main reasons for short-term fluctuations. First of all, after the main battle of the United States against Iraq, the terrorist attacks on oil facilities continued, which led to the turmoil in Iraq and made it difficult for oil exports to return to the pre-war level, adding a new shadow to the world oil market. Secondly, the domestic political situation in Venezuela, the third largest oil producer of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is unstable, which seriously affects the production and export of crude oil. Third, in May this year, the Russian government issued an ultimatum to Yukos Company, demanding to recover the huge tax arrears. The bank account of Yukos Oil Company is frozen, and Yukos Company faces the threat of bankruptcy, which directly affects oil production and export. The daily oil output of Yukos Company is 654.38+700,000 barrels, accounting for 2% of the global total output. ! 6. Speculation contributed to the soaring oil price. The relationship between oil supply and demand tends to be tense, and various geopolitical conflicts occur frequently, creating conditions for speculation. The speculation of international speculators has enhanced people's psychological expectation of tight crude oil supply in the international market and artificially raised the international oil price. It is estimated that about 70% of the current international oil futures transactions are speculative. According to a recent survey in Reuters, analysts expect that the price of crude oil in the US market has increased by about $8 per barrel due to speculation. A)pB's basic judgment on the trend of international oil prices in the coming months? There are different opinions on the trend of international oil price in the next stage, but there are three views: first, it will continue to climb; The second is high-level operation; Third, the high level has fallen back. ZpZ3G+ merchants, traders and investment analysts believe that some key factors pushing up oil prices will not change fundamentally in the short term, so international oil prices will remain high in the short term. If the supply of crude oil is seriously affected, the oil price is likely to rise again at the existing price and break through the "barrier" of $50 per barrel. Once the market lacks oil from Iraq and Venezuela, oil prices will soar to a high of $70 a barrel. Y pO Oil Company and oil-producing countries believe that the international oil price will run at a high level, with limited room for falling back. The slowdown in global crude oil demand growth in the second half of the year will not lead to a sharp drop in oil prices, because even if demand slows down, the gap between supply and demand is still very large, and there is limited room for oil prices to fall. At present, the capacity utilization rate of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil-producing areas is basically saturated, so the pressure of falling oil prices will be very easy. The only thing that will further push down oil prices is the hard landing of China and the United States, because these two countries are the driving force of world economic development and oil importers. |U~kT Some international organizations believe that the international oil price will fall from the current high level. After the oil price reaches a peak of nearly $50, it will return to a stable level of around $30 a barrel in a few months. Once the current turmoil disappears, market forces will eventually stabilize oil prices and return to equilibrium prices within a few months. Because in fact, the growth potential of the world oil supply is greater than the demand, oil-producing countries still have a certain capacity to increase production, the member countries of the International Energy Agency have billions of barrels of strategic oil reserves, and many countries are also establishing strategic reserves, so there is still room for security in the international oil market. 1. We believe that comprehensive information analysis shows that the international oil price (WTI) will not remain at a high level of more than 40 dollars per barrel for a long time, and it is expected to steadily fall back to the price of about 35 dollars per barrel before the end of the year, with an annual average of about 38 dollars per barrel. This judgment is based on the following reasons: first, the global economic growth shows signs of slowing down. In the second quarter of this year, the US economic growth was revised downward to 2.8%, which was significantly lower than the economist's expectation of 3.6%, and the growth rate was lowered by 1.7 percentage points compared with the first quarter. Japan's economic growth has also slowed down. In the second quarter, GDP only increased by 1.7%, down 3.9 percentage points from the first quarter. With the gradual effect of macro-control policies, China's economic growth will also slow down moderately, and the demand for oil will decrease. Therefore, under the double blow of high oil prices and global interest rate hikes, the growth rate of the world economy may be restrained, thus reducing the demand for crude oil. According to us energy information administration's forecast, the global demand for crude oil will increase by 2.6% in the second half of this year, 0.6 percentage points lower than that in the first half. VG0Oy= Secondly, after a period of replenishment, the crude oil inventory has increased. By the end of July, US commercial crude oil inventories reached 298.6 million barrels, an increase of 654.38+84 million barrels. The national strategic oil reserve reached the highest level in history, reaching 664.5 million barrels. According to the latest report of the International Energy Agency, the global oil inventory increased at a rate of 300,000 barrels per day and 6,543.8+0.5 million barrels per day in the first two quarters of this year respectively. B ~ = Third, several uncertain factors currently affecting the international oil market are expected to ease. First of all, with the restoration of Iraq's sovereignty, it will help the domestic reconstruction process and ease the domestic situation. A stable domestic environment is a prerequisite for Iraq to supply crude oil to the international market. Second, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez won the referendum and will remain in power until the end of his term in June 5438 +2007 10, which will help ease the domestic turmoil in Venezuela and ensure the normal production and export of crude oil. Third, whether it is acquired by state-owned oil companies, or foreign equity participation, or bankruptcy, the Yukos incident in Russia, which has gone through nearly a year, will come to an end in the near future. "H Fourth, the high profit-taking of international speculative institutions that participated in oil price speculation in the early stage will also lead to lower oil price shocks. The Impact of International Oil Price Rising on China's Economy |