The recent contract increase has been greater than the forward contract increase, which does not necessarily mean a bull market. For example, the recent increase in production supply or demand, the recent contract increase is definitely greater than the forward contract increase.

Arbitrage is arbitrage when there is unreasonable price difference between contracts. "A commodity has been in short supply at present, but there will be an oversupply in March next year. At present, the recent contract price of this commodity is the same as that in March next year. " It can be seen that the price difference between the recent contract and the forward contract is reasonable according to the current supply and demand relationship, and it is difficult to arbitrage!

Arbitrage also has risks. In the above situation, if we want to arbitrage at the same price, we must analyze the relationship between supply and demand of goods. Does the forward price reduction caused by oversupply exceed the position fee?

If it exceeds the position fee, the forward contract will continue to fall, and the decline will be greater than the recent contract, so you can buy the recent contract and sell the forward contract until you find a balance between the callback caused by oversupply and the position fee; On the contrary, because of the existence of position fees and transaction costs, you can sell short-term contracts and buy long-term contracts.