1, the global economy continues to maintain a good development trend, and the international steel market is in strong demand. At the international iron and steel conference held on June 7, 65438/KLOC-0, the World Iron and Steel Association announced the global steel consumption forecast for 2007 and 2008. Among them, the global steel consumption in 2007 was about165438+976 million tons, up 6.8% year-on-year; In 2008, it will reach 6543.8+2786 million tons, with the same growth rate of 6.8%. Compared with the expected demand growth in March 2007, the forecast for 2007 was raised by 0.9 percentage points, and the forecast for 2008 was raised by 0.7 percentage points. According to world steel association's data, the global steel consumption growth mainly comes from Brazil, Russian, Indian and China. Driven by industrialization and urbanization, the steel consumption of the "Big Four Brics" has maintained a high growth. It is predicted that the consumption growth of the four countries will reach 12.8% in 2007 and 1. 1% in 2008. Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia and the Middle East countries have sustained economic growth, steel consumption has been expanding, and domestic steel supply and demand are tight. The demand in the international market is strong, the cost of raw materials remains high, and the rising shipping cost will keep the international steel market price fluctuating at a high level in the later period, and will not drop sharply.
2. China's national economy and investment in fixed assets will continue to grow rapidly, and the steel market demand will maintain steady growth. China Academy of Social Sciences released the Autumn Report on Economic Situation Analysis and Forecast of China in 2007 on June 10, and predicted that the national economic growth rate in 2007 would exceed that in 2006, and the GDP growth rate would reach about 1 1.6%. In 2007 and 2008, the fixed assets investment of the whole society will continue to grow at a high speed, and the total investment scale will reach1380 billion yuan and17137 billion yuan respectively. As investment growth is obviously higher than GDP growth, the proportion of fixed assets investment in GDP will continue to rise in 2007, and it is predicted that the proportion of fixed assets investment in GDP in China will reach about 60% in 2007. In 2007, iron and steel industry, construction, machinery, automobile, shipbuilding, petrochemical, electric power, coal, railway, light industry, household appliances, hardware and other industries all maintained rapid growth, and the growth rate was higher than expected. In addition, the success of The 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will push all industries to a new level. This will keep the domestic steel market demand growing steadily and lay the foundation for the stability of steel prices.
3. The state will continue to strengthen the regulation of energy conservation and emission reduction, eliminate backward steel production capacity, and the growth rate of steel production capacity will slow down.
The National Development and Reform Commission and ten provinces and cities have signed letters of responsibility for eliminating backward steel. In 2007, the backward ironmaking capacity was 22.55 million tons, and the backward steelmaking capacity was 24.23 million tons. The first batch has shut down and eliminated 9.69 million tons of backward ironmaking capacity and 8.73 million tons of steelmaking capacity, and the second and third batches will sign contracts to eliminate backwardness in the future. Initial achievements have been made in energy conservation, emission reduction and elimination of backwardness, which is conducive to curbing the excessive growth of steel production, slowing down the release of steel production capacity and promoting the healthy and stable development of the steel market.
4. The price of raw materials is still rising, which supports the high operation of steel prices. Since August, especially in June 5438+ 10, the international iron ore and sea freight prices have risen sharply. By June 65438+1October 65438+1October 65438, the sea freight from Australia and Brazil to China were US$ 37.223/ton and US$ 87.904/ton respectively, both hitting record highs, up 70.6% and 65.6% respectively from the end of July. At present, the CIF price of Brazil's exports to the Far East reaches US$ 600/ton, and the price of Vietnamese steel ingots reaches US$ 6 18/ton. The rising price of raw material resources will push up the cost of steel, thus supporting the price of steel.
5. The gradual maturity of sales policy and pricing mechanism of iron and steel enterprises is conducive to the stability of market prices. The ability of iron and steel enterprises to automatically adjust production rhythm according to market supply and demand has been continuously improved. The proportion of direct supply sales of enterprises has also increased. According to statistics, from June to August, the sales volume of outstanding talents in key statistical units was 1002800 tons, of which 26.03 million tons were directly supplied by enterprises, accounting for 25.95% of the total sales volume, which was nearly10 percentage point higher than the same period in 2006 (16.27%), and the ex-factory price of steel mills remained relatively stable.
Since 2007, the international and domestic steel market situation is good, but we should also be soberly aware that opportunities and challenges coexist in the later steel market.
(1) The export growth rate of China's steel products will continue to decline in the next few months, so we should pay close attention to the influence of supply and demand changes on the price trend.
(2) The state is increasing its efforts to control the excess liquidity of funds. From1October 25th 10, the central bank raised the deposit reserve by 0.5 percentage point again.
The deposit reserve ratio has reached 13%, the highest level in history, which will reduce the supply of funds to a certain extent, and the cash flow of manufacturers and distributors will be tight.
(3) The northern and western regions of China will enter the off-season of construction, and the consumption of construction steel will decrease.
(4) The output of hot-rolled coils increased rapidly, which brought some pressure to the supply of market resources in the fourth quarter.
Suggestions on keeping the steel market running smoothly in the later period
First, we should seriously study the market and open up the market. Adhere to a moderate export strategy focusing on meeting domestic demand, adjust and optimize export varieties, broaden export areas, and actively respond to trade frictions.
Second, iron and steel enterprises should proceed from market demand, insist on fixing production by sales, control production rhythm according to the needs of the market and users, rationally adjust product structure, and strive to maintain a basic balance between market supply and demand.
Third, iron and steel enterprises and trading enterprises should standardize sales behavior, strengthen industry self-discipline, adhere to the principles of scientific pricing and reasonable pricing, and strive to maintain the relative stability of ex-factory prices; Establish good cooperative relations with distributors, share interests and risks, maintain fair competition order in the domestic market, and maintain the smooth operation and healthy development of the steel market.