The financial crisis will not last long. It is generally believed that the depression in the financial sector will pass before 20 10, or even earlier. This is because the recession of the crisis depends on 1. Consumer confidence of residents. 2. Enterprise investment confidence. At present, the production capacity of countries all over the world is still strong, but the existing problems are concerns about the future financing channels, and the bonds and stocks held by enterprises and residents have shrunk, reducing the expectations of future consumption capacity. As long as the government takes effective measures, such as saving the market and broadening the financing channels for enterprises, these two problems can be solved, so the impact of the financial crisis will not last long, and two years is the longest expectation.
The financial crisis will have an impact on countries that are more open and have developed financial markets. Such as the United States, Japan, Britain, France and Germany, as well as some developing countries such as Russia and Indonesia. This is because countries with a high degree of openness are more likely to import and export foreign capital. Banks, enterprises and residents in these countries are more convenient to hold American bonds and stocks. When the financial crisis comes, their losses will be more obvious, so the crisis will easily spread from the United States to these countries. However, the scope and sectors affected by the financial crisis will not be too large, for example, it is limited to the financial sector, domestic manufacturing and services related to foreign direct investment. Take Britain as an example. The financial services industry in Britain has always been a highly competitive industry. During the financial crisis, its layoffs and salary cuts were very strong. In addition, due to the blockage of financing channels, Britain's manufacturing industry will also be affected to some extent. But on the whole, British manufacturing industry is not a competitive industry, and its output value has been very small, accounting for only 10% of British GDP. Therefore, the impact of the financial crisis is more in the financial services industry in Britain. Departments have great influence, especially various commercial banks, investment banks, various fund companies and insurance companies.
The impact on China is similar to that of Britain, but there are differences and opportunities. China's assets in the United States will suffer losses, such as foreign stocks and bonds held by the China administration. This is the most important influence, and this part has little influence. One of the problems is that the financing channels of China companies in the United States and China are blocked, but the state has taken countermeasures. Secondly, industries related to foreign direct investment will be affected. Some multinational companies, such as Motorola, Morgan Stanley and Ford, may reduce their business in China, resulting in employment difficulties. Thirdly, manufacturing is a highly competitive industry in China. For China, this is an excellent opportunity to go abroad and acquire foreign companies.
Generally speaking, the world economic order will not change greatly after the crisis, but China's role as an important economy is becoming more and more obvious. China holds a large amount of US dollar foreign exchange and US bonds, which is an important link to ensure the stable operation of the world economy and a big card for China to participate in international negotiations. But at present, China's economy is still focused on solving domestic problems and achieving rapid, stable and healthy economic development.
In the United States, Japan and Europe, most enterprises are privately owned, which is different from the situation in China and should be distinguished. The vast majority of enterprises that have fallen rapidly in previous economic crises are small and medium-sized enterprises and financial services; Enterprises related to the national economy and people's livelihood, especially large enterprises, monopoly enterprises and public utilities, have little influence, such as commodity chain stores and telecommunications companies. Whether an enterprise or an industry can rise after the crisis is complicated and a long-term process. According to its different degrees, the recovery of the economic crisis to the real economy depends on government policies. However, generally speaking, investment and employment are the first issues that the government should consider. For example, after the 1929 Great Crisis, the government chose three strategies: revival, relief and reform. First of all, it revived banks, restricted wages, restricted monopoly, helped small enterprises and improved the level of employment. Therefore, if an industry or enterprise is conducive to increasing employment, then it should be the first industry to rise, and banks must also be the first to rise.
If an enterprise stands for a long time, it must be monopolistic, because only monopoly can set its own price and maintain its own profits. The big enterprises in China are all state-owned enterprises, and they will never fail.