my country's civil aviation transportation maintained a sustained growth trend in 2019 - the cargo and mail transportation volume exceeded 7.5 million tons in 2019

With the development of China's civil aviation industry, especially the progress of civil aviation freight, my country’s civil air cargo and mail transportation volume continues to increase. From 2012 to 2019, the compound annual growth rate of civil air cargo and mail transportation volume was approximately 4.7%. According to the Civil Aviation Administration of China Statistical Express, the entire industry completed 7.532 million tons of cargo and mail transportation in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%.

Not only the cargo and mail transportation volume of the civil aviation industry has continued to grow, but the cargo and mail turnover volume has also been increasing, and the growth rate is higher than the cargo and mail transportation volume. From 2012 to 2019, the cargo and mail turnover volume of my country's civil aviation industry increased steadily, and the growth rate showed a downward trend. In 2019, the entire industry completed cargo and mail turnover of 26.32 billion ton-kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%.

The cargo and mail business volume of airports has grown steadily - the cargo and mail throughput of airports in the eastern region still dominates

The cargo and mail throughput of my country's civil transport airports has increased year by year. From 2012 to 2019, cargo and mail throughput increased by 36.5% cumulatively. In 2019, the country's civil aviation transport airports completed a cargo and mail throughput of 17.096 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%.

Forecast of the development prospects of my country's aviation logistics industry - short-term pressure, long-term prospects are optimistic

At the end of 2019, China and the United States reached the first phase of the trade agreement, which will benefit my country's air cargo in 2020 development, but due to the outbreak of COVID-19 during the Chinese Spring Festival in 2020, it is expected to have an impact on the development of air cargo in the first quarter of 2020.

According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, throughout 2019, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) basically remained between 49% and 51%. In February 2020, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, China's purchasing managers' index dropped significantly, falling sharply to 35.7%, a decrease of 14.3 percentage points from January 2020. As the Party Central Committee and the State Council coordinate the promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the current resumption rate of enterprises has rebounded rapidly, and production and business activities are resuming in an orderly manner.

On March 9, 2020, international crude oil futures prices plummeted to US$31 per barrel, a drop of at least 30% from the previous day, the largest single-day decline since 1991. The Qianzhan Industry Research Institute predicts that in the first quarter of 2020, benefiting from the sharp drop in oil prices, air cargo companies' operating costs will drop significantly, which will partially offset the impact of the epidemic on my country's air logistics. It is expected that my country's air cargo and mail transportation growth rate may drop to 2 in 2020 %, that is, the air cargo and mail transportation volume in 2020 is expected to be approximately 7.68 million tons. With the epidemic under control and the shipping logistics industry picking up, by 2025, the cargo transportation volume in my country's air cargo market is expected to reach 9.35 million tons.

——The above data comes from the "China Aviation Logistics Industry Development Prospects and Investment Forecast Analysis Report" by the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.