Crude oil inventories are divided into commercial inventories and strategic reserves. The main purpose of trading inventory is to ensure that companies can operate efficiently despite seasonal fluctuations in crude oil demand, while preventing possible shortages in crude oil supply; the main purpose of the national strategic reserve is to respond to the crude oil crisis. Crude oil inventories in various countries play a regulating role in the supply and demand balance of the international crude oil market, and changes in their quantities are directly related to changes in the supply and demand balance of the global crude oil market. In the international crude oil market, weekly crude oil inventory and demand data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) have become the basis for many crude oil traders to judge international supply and demand. Short-term crude oil market demand situation and practical operations.

2. Crude oil inventories and oil prices

After the release of crude oil inventory and demand data, WTI oil prices fluctuated, which directly affected the direction of Brent crude oil in London and Singapore, causing oil prices to rise and fall. fluctuation. The impact of crude oil inventories on oil prices is complex. When futures prices are much higher than spot prices, crude oil companies tend to increase trading inventories and reduce current supply, thereby stimulating spot prices to rise and reducing the spot spread of futures contracts; when futures prices are lower than spot prices: crude oil companies tend to reduce trading Inventories, increasing current supply, result in lower spot prices and a reasonable spread over futures prices. As of the end of November 2009, commercial crude oil inventories in OECD countries had reached 2.738 billion barrels, an increase of 51 million barrels over the same period last year, which can meet the crude oil demand of OECD countries for 60 days, with the highest excess rate. Average limits over the past five years. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, commercial crude oil inventories in OECD countries will remain relatively abundant in 2010, and high inventories will restrain oil price increases to a certain extent.

(3) The U.S. dollar exchange rate factor? Affects the actual level of oil prices

Since international crude oil transactions are mainly priced in U.S. dollars, the U.S. dollar exchange rate is also one of the important factors affecting the rise and fall of crude oil prices. When the U.S. dollar appreciates, there will be downward pressure on international raw material prices for commodities such as gold, crude oil, and copper; conversely, when the U.S. dollar depreciates, the prices of these commodities will rise. From 2002 to July 2010, crude oil prices rose steadily due to the sharp depreciation of the U.S. dollar against the world's major currencies. The interest rate adjustments and exchange rate policies adopted by the United States to alleviate the subprime mortgage crisis directly led to the influx of liquidity, triggered global inflation and continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and pushed up commodity prices. Includes crude oil and U.S. oil prices. Driven by this policy, oil prices fell to new highs, hitting a record high of $147 in July 2008. In the context of the financial crisis impacting the real economy, oil prices quickly fell to $35. Therefore, there is a typical negative correlation between the U.S. dollar and oil prices, and a weak U.S. dollar will support oil prices.

However, the impact of the US dollar exchange rate on oil prices is only temporary and not significant enough. Statistical analysis shows that the correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil futures prices and the U.S. dollar index is -0.22, indicating that in oil price fluctuations, the U.S. dollar exchange rate plays a very small role in the supply and demand relationship. Crude oil relationship.