Faced with depressed pig prices and excess market capacity, the pace of capacity expansion of listed pig enterprises may slow down.
The industry generally believes that the price of live pigs may rebound in the second half of 2022.
Production and marketing differentiation of pig enterprises
Li Ming, a live pig analyst in the Agricultural Products Division of Shanghai Steel Union, told China Business Daily that the pace of development and support of some enterprises slowed down in the second half of 200212002, resulting in no obvious improvement in the live pig production capacity in the first half of 2022.
Secondly, winter is an era of seasonal high incidence of pig diseases, which affects the breeding performance of recent slaughter batches. In addition, due to the holidays in June and February, the number of effective sales days and sales volume of 65438 is low, which magnifies the differentiation of slaughter quantity of group enterprises.
It is understood that although the slaughter volume of head pig enterprises such as Wen's shares and New Hope has not decreased, there is also a trend of slowing down the expansion of production capacity.
In March 2022, Shi Wen Co., Ltd. adjusted the implementation progress of ten investment projects with raised funds, and the production time was delayed to 65438+February 2023.
According to the performance of Wen's shares, before the pig price rebounded sharply, the company implemented the strategy of retaining strength to tide over the difficulties, controlling production capacity, investment and expenditure, reducing large-scale capital expenditure, and slowing down the progress of the above-mentioned fund-raising targets. It was originally expected that the support period needed to be extended.
New hope also said that it will not invest in farms on a large scale and will not start new projects.
An important reason for the increase in capital pressure or the slowdown in the production capacity of pig enterprises.
Financial pressure is still an important problem faced by pig enterprises.
Since 2022, the feed price has increased more than five times, with an average increase of 150 yuan/ton in 80 yuan. The growth cycle of pigs is about six months, so the average feed price is raised in the process of breeding, which also challenges the productivity structure of pig-raising enterprises and maintains normal production.
At present, the important contradiction in the period of low pig price response is the relative oversupply.
Li Ming shows.
Accelerate the pace of capacity elimination
It is worth noting that the industry believes that the capacity expansion of pig enterprises has slowed down and unexpectedly reduced production. The level of industrial capacity depends on the withdrawal of small and medium-sized aquaculture retail investors.
Li Ming believes that the slowdown in the release of production capacity of pig enterprises is only a business situation.
According to the preliminary judgment of the future market, enterprises can adjust the stock of fertile sows by maneuver.
For small and medium-sized farmers, they are facing great pressure to withdraw funds, and they have to bear the helplessness of falling prices. Their psychological expectations have been broken again and again, their operations have been constantly adjusted, and even they have withdrawn from the industry, and the production capacity of various industries has been shrinking.
It is estimated that at present, the free-range enterprises with an annual output of more than 500 heads account for about 60% of the market, and the output of the top 20 leading enterprises accounts for about 20% of the market.
Zhu Zengyong, chief analyst of the whole pork industry chain monitoring and early warning of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and researcher of the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that at present, large-scale aquaculture enterprises occupy an important market, and leading enterprises lead the market development, which has become a new industry form.
Open source securities also showed in the research report that in February, the number of fertile sows in the sample size monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture still insisted on a downward trend.
In February, the industrial capacity was in the range of 0%- 1%.
Since the beginning of the year, departmental farmers have gradually formed a rebound expectation for the price of live pigs in the second half of the year, which will definitely limit the recent monthly production capacity.
However, in view of the downward trend of live pig prices and the amplification of single-head losses, we are optimistic about the de-capacity range in March and May 2022.
The single loss of aquaculture will also show an enlarged trend, and the continuous loss will aggravate the cost pressure of pig enterprises and accelerate the clearing of pig production capacity in the industry.
The pig industry continues to suffer losses.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of live pigs in the third week of March was 12.62 yuan/kg, down 2% from the previous week and 55.7% from the same period last year.
The data shows that as of the third week of March, the average price of live pigs in China has been falling continuously 15 weeks.
The pig industry has lost money 1 1 week.
According to the data of Shanghai Steel Refining-My Agricultural Products Network, the pig industry continues to lose money under the self-supporting mode, and the current loss is 584 yuan/head; Under the mode of outsourcing piglets, piglets continued to lose money from late April of 202 1 to late April of 10/0, and reached the maximum loss 1676 yuan/head at 10, and recovered at the end of the year.
Because of the continuous losses in the pig industry, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments will start the third batch of central frozen pork storage and storage during the year.
According to the national development and reform commission, the price of pig food has entered the first-class oversold warning range for five consecutive weeks.
As of March 23rd, the national live pig price was 13.06 yuan/kg, which was 1.28% lower than that in March. The price of pig food was 4.53, down from March 16 1.3 1%.
Has the price of live pigs fallen to the bottom?
In the case of policy assistance and accelerated pace of de-capacity in the industry, departmental investment institutions are optimistic about the rebound in pig prices.
CICC believes that the current pig cycle will stop at the end of the second quarter, but the rebound of pig prices may be limited.
The price of live pigs is likely to remain at a low level, but the depth of exploration depends on the pace of de-capacity, and negative profits may continue to appear in the near future.
Another concept is that although the price of live pigs may rebound in the second half of 2022, it does not mean that the inflection point of the live pig market has emerged.
From mid-August to the end of September, the productivity of 202 1 is the peak. According to the breeding cycle, the supply of live pigs will decrease in June and August 2022.
Li Ming shows that pig enterprises can reduce the unlucky fluctuation of price risk to a certain extent by manipulating the futures of feed and pigs, and their enthusiasm for reducing production will be reduced.
Small and medium-sized breeding retail investors can also extend their operations and reduce the financial pressure by selling departmental piglets.
However, from the perspective of the industry, the price of live pigs has reached the bottom of the cycle, and the market's feeling of the rebound of live pig prices is increasing.
According to the relationship between market supply and demand, it is expected that the price of live pigs will remain above the average cost of industry breeding in the second half of this year.
But this cannot be regarded as a turning point in the market, and it is more appropriate to regard it as a timely adjustment.
Zhu Zengyong's performance: At present, it can only be said that the price of live pigs has reached the bottom.
In the first half of 2022, the obvious characteristics of oversupply appeared. However, from June 5438+ 10 and February, the supply of piglets decreased month-on-month, which means that the intermittent supply of commercial pigs will be improved from July, and the overall situation of the pig market will be improved in the second half of the year.
However, the supply side has basically not changed, so the pig cycle reversal in 2022 may not be mentioned.
There is still a gap of 1 yuan between the current price of live pigs and the low price of 202 1 week 1 .51yuan/kg.
In April 2022, the price of live pigs may fall slightly, but there is not much room for it to fall back.
At present, the price of live pigs is lower than the low level of 20 19 and higher than the low level of 20 18 10.3 yuan/kg. However, the gap between the two cycles is in 3 yuan/Jin 4 yuan/Jin, and there is little room for the price of live pigs to fall in the future.
In April 2022, the price of live pigs was still at a low level or slightly lowered.
Zhu Zengyong performed.