Analysts pointed out that after entering 1 month, the focus of the market will gradually return to the main line of performance. At present, it is also the intensive disclosure period of annual report performance forecast. The difference between the predicted performance and the market expectation directly affects the liquidity of individual stocks. When a certain variety has sufficient liquidity, it will affect the market style preference.
The expected difference brings stock price fluctuation.
The recent continuous consolidation at the bottom of the policy has not brought about the rebound of the index, and there are many disturbing factors during this period, one of which is the concern about the profitability of listed companies.
"In the context of pessimistic economic data, the market is increasingly worried about the profitability of the annual report. The performance forecast that began to be disclosed in 5438+ 10 will be the focus of market attention." Ping an securities research pointed out.
"At present, the market's expectations for the performance of listed companies' annual reports are generally not high. In this case, there are often expected differences, and expected differences are the key factors of short-term stock price fluctuations. "A market participant told china securities journal that after the continuous adjustment of 20 18, some stocks fell sharply. If there is a positive expectation difference and the demand for oversold rebound is superimposed, there may be a wave of market in individual stocks in the short term.
The person further pointed out that if the performance of the annual report is pre-increased, the stock price has fallen sharply on the day of publication, indicating that the previous stock price has fully reflected the performance, indicating that the performance is not up to expectations.
Previously, based on poor performance expectations and industry prosperity, China Merchants Securities chose sub-industries with relatively good profits. "These companies are mainly concentrated in chemical industry (chemical industry), pharmaceutical biology (pharmacy), light industry manufacturing (packaging and printing), electronics (electronic manufacturing), textiles and clothing, computers (computer applications), food and beverage (food processing) and so on."
Ping An Securities also said that the downward trend of earnings in the A-share market is the consensus of the market, and the difference lies in the extent and time of the downward trend. "1 The GEM performance forecast released before the end is more important for the revision of market expectations, and it is recommended that the market pay close attention to it. The current market is still in the bottoming period, but the growth sector with high performance is still worth laying out. "
There are differences in the judgment of the spring market.
In addition to poor performance expectations, the spring market is also the focus of attention at present, especially when the first trading day of 20 19 failed to usher in a "good start".
"This spring ploughing will be a little late." The new era securities strategy analysis teacher said that the main time window of the 20 19 spring market may be February-March, and the catalyst may be MSCI's discussion on increasing the proportion of A shares, credit data at the beginning of the year, etc.
Historically, the spring market happens almost every year, the shortest month and the most common two months. However, the start time of the spring market is very accidental, generally distributed between 65438+February and 65438+ 10. The market will adjust before the spring market starts. There are two adjustments. If there is an upward trend (growth enterprise market at the end of 20 10, 20 13, 20 15, 20 16, 20 17), there may be obvious profit-making adjustments around the new year. If there is a downward trend (20 1 1 ends, 20 12 ends), before the spring market starts, there will generally be a compensatory increase in the previous strong sector.
Fan believes that the spring market of 20 19 will not be absent, but it may be a little late. At present, the valuation of A-shares is at a low level, but from the perspective of position structure, some funds of 20 18,11rebounded, and the game policy exceeded expectations, so it is necessary to wait for the rest of the trading funds to start moving forward in the spring market.
GF Securities holds a similar view. In June this year, the probability of "spring stir" is low at the beginning of 5438+ 10. The main reasons are: the broad liquidity expectation is still difficult to be greatly improved, the ability and willingness of public offering and insurance capital to increase their positions at the beginning of the year are not high, and the performance expectations of the main board and the Growth Enterprise Market annual report are not good, which restricts the market risk appetite.
However, some institutions said that it is expected that the market will fluctuate and rebound in 65438+ 10, and the spring market is worth looking forward to. The core fluctuation range is 2450-2650 points. Dongguan Securities believes that on the whole, the gradual repair and improvement of peripheral risk points will gradually ease the market risk appetite. In the face of the downward pressure on the economy, the policy is expected to continue to exert its strength, which will help stabilize the economy, especially the funds brought by the credit supply in June 5438+ 10 will be slightly loose, which will help improve the funds. After the market continues to experience repeated shocks and continuous shrinkage, it is expected to usher in a recovery opportunity.
Defend first and then attack.
20 18, the Shanghai composite index fell by 24.59%, the decline was second only to 2008, and the market did not have much trend opportunity. Then, in the face of 20 19, what investment opportunities are worthy of attention?
Fan said that before 20 19, there are three allocation ideas: first, growth varieties with little correlation between demand and economy. Second, the valuation was adjusted earlier and benefited from the stable growth policy. Third, the cost of raw materials is relatively large and the demand is relatively stable or the demand pricing is not market-oriented.
Guo Jin Securities said that at the current point, it is expected that the A-share market will change from "repeatedly bottoming out" to "structural bull market" in 20 19. Don't rush to attack at the beginning of the year, wait for the relevant rules of the science and technology innovation board to be promulgated, and wait for the annual profit report and quarterly profit report to be disclosed. Throughout the year, the current A shares are at a low historical valuation. When other risks are gradually released, opportunities will come quietly. On the whole, the opportunities of 20 19a shares far outweigh the risks. Judging from the rhythm of A-share operation, it is more optimistic about the structural opportunities of A-shares in the second half of the year, and brokers and emerging growth are better than the traditional blue-chip sector. In terms of industry configuration, there are impulsive opportunities in traditional cyclical industries, but it is difficult to have systematic investment opportunities; The establishment and pilot registration system in science and technology innovation board is of great significance, benefiting leading brokers and some venture capital stocks; Rejuvenating the country through science and technology is relatively more optimistic about "cloud computing, 5G, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, chips, etc." .
"The most pessimistic time in the market has passed and a new round of market is gestating." Huang Rencun, a strategist in fortune securities, said that from the index of 20 19, the market is expected to rise above 3,000 points. There are generally three main lines in the specific industry configuration: the first main line is low valuation, such as banking and transportation. The second main line is industries with new capital preference, such as foreign capital and bank financing, such as non-bank finance. Third, varieties with strong expectations for improving the profitability of listed companies, such as national defense, military industry and media. Combined with the valuation position and profitability, it is suggested that 20 19 should be super-allocated to banks, non-bank finance, transportation, non-ferrous metals, communications, machinery, national defense and military industry and media.
(Article Source: china securities journal)