(I) Status of Nickel Resources in the World
According to the statistics of the US Geological Survey, since 10, the world's nickel resources reserves have shown a steady growth trend, and the supply guarantee capacity has been improved. 1999 ~ 2009, although the annual output of nickel ore in the world increased significantly, the resource reserves continued to increase. In 2009, the world nickel mine reserves were 7 1 10,000 tons, increasing by 1.4% year-on-year. Based on the output in 2009, the static guarantee period of global nickel resources is 49 years. In terms of types, nickel resources in the world mainly include laterite minerals and sulfide minerals, of which laterite minerals account for about 60% of the total, mainly distributed in Cuba, New Caledonia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brazil, Colombia and Dominica near the equator. Sulfide minerals account for 40%, mainly distributed in Canadian, Russian, Australian, China, South African and other countries. In addition, manganese nodules in the deep sea, especially in the Pacific Ocean, are also rich in nickel.
With the discovery of new nickel mines, the distribution pattern of nickel resources in the world has changed. Australia's nickel resource reserves have been ranked first in the world since 2002, and still ranked first in the world with 26 million tons of reserves in 2009, which is the core area of nickel resources in the world; New Caledonia, Russia, Cuba, Brazil and Canada, although their nickel reserves remain in the top five in the world, their share in the world has dropped below 10%. The status of Greece, Philippines and Venezuela has improved, especially Venezuela has been one of the largest nickel resource countries in the world since 2002 (table 1).
It is noteworthy that the world nickel reserves in 2009 were 7 1 10,000 tons, an increase of 1 10,000 tons over the previous year. The newly-increased reserves mainly come from Colombia. In 2008, Colombia's reserves were 830,000 tons, and in 2009, it soared to 6,543.8+700,000 tons, an increase of 870,000 tons. At the same time, in addition to the world's major nickel distribution abroad, other countries have also discovered new nickel deposits, and the total nickel reserves have increased from 2.2 million tons in 2008 to 4 1.99 million tons in 2009, an increase of1.99 million tons.
Table1Distribution of Nickel Resources and Reserves in Major Countries in 2009
Source: Abstract of Mineral Commodities, 20 10.
(II) Status of Nickel Resources in China
Nickel mines in China are mainly divided into copper-nickel sulfide mines and lateritic nickel mines, but copper-nickel sulfide deposits account for about 90% of the national total, and there are many associated minerals with high comprehensive utilization value, and lateritic nickel mines account for about 10% of the total.
By the end of 2009, the proven resource reserve of nickel mine was 8.442 million tons, with a net increase of 6.5438+0.60 million tons over the previous year, with an increase of 6.5438+0.9%, of which 2.65438+0.7 million tons were newly added for exploration. The mining areas with the highest growth of nickel resources in China in 2009 include 83,000 tons of exploration line 22-27 in Huangshan South copper-nickel mine area, Hami City, Xinjiang; 70,000 tons of hilly copper-nickel ore in Hami, Xinjiang; Silver Hu Shuo Nickel Mine in Xiwuzhumuqin Banner, Inner Mongolia, 38,000 tons; The Zhuerhenggou nickel mine in Xiwuzhumuqin Banner of Inner Mongolia is 23,000 tons. By the end of 2009, there were 35 nickel mines with proven resource reserves, with the basic reserves of 28 1.8 million tons, the reserves of 2.429 million tons, the resource reserves of 5.624 million tons and the proven resource reserves of 8.442 million tons, an increase of 1.9% over the previous year.
Compared with foreign resources, China's nickel resources have two remarkable characteristics: first, the ore grade is high, and the nickel-rich sulfide ore with an average nickel grade of more than 1% accounts for about 40% of the country; Second, the distribution of nickel resources in China is highly concentrated. According to the National Bulletin of Mineral Resources Reserves issued by the Ministry of Land and Resources, in 2009, nickel resources in China were mainly distributed in Gansu, Shaanxi, Jilin and Xinjiang, especially in Gansu, accounting for about 85.4% of the country (Table 2).
Table 2 Distribution of Nickel Resources and Reserves in China in 2009
Second, the production situation at home and abroad
(A) the world nickel production situation
1. Mining nickel
In 2009, due to the impact of the financial turmoil, the output of stainless steel industry continued to decrease on the basis of 2008, so that the output of nickel in mines continued to decline. According to the data of World Metal Statistics, the global nickel mine output in 2009 was 6.5438+0.37 million tons, a decrease of 7.7% over the previous year.
Russia is still the world's largest producer of nickel ore, with its output reaching 275,000 tons in 2009, accounting for 20. 1% of the world's total output, down 4.2% from the previous year. Followed by Indonesia (the output is 19. 1, accounting for 13.9% of the global total), Australia (168,000 tons), Philippines (155,000 tons) and Canada (/kloc-0). In addition, China, Cuba, Colombia and South Africa are also major producers of nickel ore.
Table 3 World Nickel Production from 2003 to 2009
Source: World Statistical Yearbook of Metals, 2009 ~ 20 10.
According to the statistics of World Metals Statistics, the global output of nickel ore has been increasing steadily in recent 10 years. In 2007, the world nickel output was15.69 million tons, which was 8.5% higher than that in 2006 and 197 tons in 2008. Affected by the financial crisis in 2008, the output of nickel in mines decreased compared with that in 2007, and continued to decline in 2009.
2. Refining nickel
Affected by the financial crisis, the global refined nickel output in 2009 was 6.5438+0.32 million tons, down 2.5% from the previous year. China has become the world's largest producer of refined nickel with an output of 247,000 tons this year. The output of refined nickel in Russia, Japan, Australia and Canada all exceeded 654.38 million tons. In 2009, among the major nickel producers in the world, the refined nickel output of China increased by 44.4%, Colombian 2 1.4%, Australian 17.6% and South African 6.3%. In addition, the output of other countries has declined to varying degrees, of which Canada has the largest decline, accounting for 30.4% (Table 4).
Table 4 World refined nickel output in 2003-2009
Source: World Statistical Yearbook of Metals, 2009 ~ 20 10.
(2) Domestic production and supply situation
The production of nickel products in China is relatively concentrated, mainly in Gansu, Jilin, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Yunnan and other regions. The main producers are Jinchuan Group Co., Ltd., Jilin Ji 'en Nickel Industry Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Nonferrous Metals Company, Fukang Smelter and Yunnan Tin Industry Yuanjiang Nickel Industry Co., Ltd.
Despite the huge impact of the US financial crisis, the nickel output in China continued to increase in 2009, reaching1650,000 tons, up by 28.0% year-on-year (Table 5). Especially in Guangxi, Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces, the growth rates are 155. 1%, 67.6% and 39.8% respectively. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, a major nickel producing province, saw a decrease of 33.3%.
Table 5 Output of Nickel Products in China Provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) from 2004 to 2009
Source: Statistical Compilation of Nonferrous Metals Industry from 2004 to 2009; Statistics of Nonferrous Metals, 2010 (1) (data in 2009)
Third, the domestic and international consumption situation
(A) the world nickel consumption situation
Since the mid-1960s, the world consumption of nickel has grown faster than all other basic metals, including copper and aluminum. According to the data of World Metal Statistics, the world nickel consumption reached13.56 million tons in 2007. In 2008, the growth rate of global nickel demand slowed down, and the global nickel consumption was 1.293 million tons. In 2009, it rose to 1.3 1.5 million tons.
The world's major consumer countries and regions of nickel are Chinese mainland, Japan, the United States, Germany, South Korea, Taiwan Province Province of China, South Africa and Italy. Among them, China has the fastest growth rate of nickel consumption in the world, with an average annual growth rate of 25.6% in the past 10 (1998 ~ 2007). Since 2005, China has surpassed Japan in nickel consumption, ranking first in the world. The main areas of nickel consumption in the world have shifted from western developed countries and regions to emerging Asian economies such as China, South Korea and Taiwan Province Province of China.
In 2008, affected by the global financial crisis, China's nickel consumption decreased by 7.0% compared with 2007. In 2009, it rose to 54 1 10,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 77.4%. Belgium is the country with the largest decline in consumption, with a decrease of 66.0% in 2009. In addition, consumption in Finland decreased by 665,438+0.0%, Germany by 365,438+0.1%,Italy by 36.8% and Spain by 36.6% (Table 6).
Table 6 Consumption of major countries and regions consuming refined nickel in the world from 2003 to 2009
Source: World Metal Statistics, 20 10/0,2.
(B) Nickel consumption situation in China
For a long time, nickel in China has been mainly used in metallurgical industry, followed by light industry and other fields, with little fluctuation in consumption and basically in dynamic balance with output. However, with the rapid development of national economy, automobile and construction industries, as well as the national policy of strongly supporting the development of stainless steel industry, China's stainless steel consumption has increased by more than 25% every year, which has effectively promoted the growth of nickel consumption demand in China's stainless steel industry. At the same time, with the global manufacturing center gradually moving to China, the matching nickel-consuming production technology has also begun to move to China (for example, there were more than 4,000 electroplating plants in Taiwan Province Province, half of which have moved to the mainland), which directly led to a substantial increase in the nickel consumption of the corresponding industries in China. Especially after 2000, the consumption of nickel in China has obviously expanded. The apparent consumption of refined nickel was 305,000 tons in 2008 and 54 1 10,000 tons in 2009, an increase of 77.4% over the previous year (Table 6). According to the relevant data of World Metal Statistics, the consumption of refined nickel in China accounted for 4 1.2% of the world's total consumption in 2009, ranking first in the world since 2003.
Four. Domestic and international trade situation
(A) the status of international nickel trade
Because large mining companies (Russian Novo Roske) and multinational companies (Yingqiao and International Nickel Company) control most of the nickel mines in the world, nickel concentrate, the primary product of nickel, and nickel matte, the intermediate product of nickel, are mostly used by their refineries, and the market trade volume is very small.
The United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea, China, Taiwan Province Province of China and Western Europe are the main importing countries and regions of nickel in the world today, and there are almost no mines producing nickel (Table 7). In 2008, China was the largest importer of nickel metal in the world, with an import volume of 1 1.7 million tons, and the United States ranked second with 1.7 million tons. In 2009, China remained the largest nickel importer in the world, with an import volume of 247,000 tons, up11.1%year-on-year; 86,000 tons in the United States, the import volume decreased 19.6%. In 2009, except for China, South Korea and Taiwan Province Province of China, the import volume of other nickel importing countries and regions declined, with Belgium having the largest decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 66.7%.
Table 7 Imports of major nickel metal importers/importers and regions in the world from 2004 to 2009
Source: World Metal Statistics, 20 10/0,2.
As far as exports are concerned, Russia, Canada, Norway, Finland and Britain are the main exporters of nickel metal in the world (Table 8). Affected by the financial crisis in 2008, except for a few countries, the export volume of nickel in most countries dropped significantly. Among them, Russian exports of nickel metal reached 248,000 tons in 2008, up 6.0% year-on-year, while China's exports dropped the most, reaching 6,000 tons in 2008, down 64.7% year-on-year. In 2009, Russia remained the world's largest exporter of nickel, with an export volume of 1.57 million tons, down 36.7% year-on-year; China exported 33,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 450.0%.
Table 8 Export situation of major nickel metal exporting countries in the world from 2004 to 2009
Source: World Metal Statistics, 20 10/0,2.
(II) Domestic nickel import and export trade status
With the rapid growth of stainless steel production in China, the consumption of nickel is also increasing substantially, especially the commissioning of stainless steel expansion projects in Shanxi Taigang and Shanghai Baosteel, which directly promoted the leap-forward growth of stainless steel production in China. The growth rate of nickel resource consumption in China is much faster than that of nickel concentrate production, which makes the shortage of nickel raw material production and supply a key factor restricting the development of nickel industry in China. In order to alleviate the shortage of domestic nickel raw materials, major domestic nickel producers began to import various nickel raw materials to meet the domestic consumption demand for nickel resources. Although the macro-economy has been hit hard by the financial crisis, the consumption of nickel in China is still growing strongly. Coupled with the restriction of resource endowment and the expansion of stainless steel industry, the gap between supply and demand of nickel raw materials must be made up by the international market. In 2009, the import of nickel ore was16431kloc-0/ton, up 33.6% year-on-year, and the import value was 10557 1000 USD, down 48.5% year-on-year (Table 9).
Table 9 Nickel imports in China from 2006 to 2009
Source: China Customs Statistical Yearbook, 20 10.
From a regional perspective, China's nickel imports are mainly concentrated in the Philippines, Australia and Spain, and the imports from these three countries currently account for half of the national total. The Philippines, in particular, imported 8719.85 million tons from the country in 2009, accounting for 53. 1% of the total import price. Other importing countries include the United States, Canada and New Caledonia.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) nickel price trend
1986 ~ 1987, the price of nickel metal is about $2,500/ton, 1988, and the price rises sharply, exceeding14,000 $/ton. After that, it showed a gradual downward trend until 1993, falling to 5282.7 USD/ton. Although it rose slightly in the next two years, the price of nickel metal still showed a downward trend after 1995, and the price of 1998 was even lower than that of 1993. With the recovery of the world economy, the price of nickel has been rising since 1998. In 2000, the price of spot nickel metal with 99.8% purity in London Metal Exchange was 864 1.43 USD/ton, and in 2006 it was 5438+0, which fell to 59484 1 USD/ton, and then it began to rise sharply. In 2005, the price of spot nickel with purity of 99.8% reached 14737. In 2008, affected by the financial tsunami triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the global nickel market was in turmoil and the nickel price plummeted. The annual average spot price of LME is USD 265,438+USD 065,438+USD 020/ton, with a decrease of 43.3% (Figure 1). Some small and medium-sized nickel enterprises could not bear the rapid decline of nickel price, and stopped production on June 5438+ 10 after struggling for a period of time, while large nickel enterprises could still support because of their strong financial and technical strength. However, with the passage of time, nickel prices continued to fall, corporate profits fell sharply, and some nickel giants began to fidget, and then took measures to close some mines and smelters in order to stabilize the market. According to the data of International Nickel Research Group (INSG), in 2008, nickel enterprises reduced production by 6.5438+0.55 million tons. The recovery of global stainless steel industry in 2009 laid the foundation for the rise of nickel price, and the trend of LME nickel price showed an upward trend. In 2009, the average price of LME nickel futures in March was 14690 USD/ton, down 36% year-on-year, and the average spot price was 14662 USD/ton, down 3 1% year-on-year. Nickel stocks showed an unprecedented rapid growth. At the end of the year, LME inventory was158,000 tons, which doubled from the end of 2008 and was the highest since 1994.
Figure 1 Average annual price change curve of spot nickel metal in London Metal Exchange from 2000 to 2009.
Looking back at the LME nickel price in 2009, the nickel price showed a trend of first rising and then falling at the beginning of the year. At the beginning of February, it rose due to the news that China increased its metal strategy and the ten major industrial revitalization plans. However, by the end of February and the beginning of March, as the global stainless steel industry was still in a downturn, the news of steel mills' production reduction came one after another, and the nickel price began to decline again, falling to a minimum of $9,000/ton. In the second and third quarters of that year, the US dollar index plummeted, and the price of LME nickel began to rise, exceeding $20,000/ton. In September, the US dollar index rose and LME metal prices fell across the board. At the end of the year, the price of nickel began to rise, returning to 1.9 million USD/ton. If non-ferrous metals with strong financial properties are more sensitive to the global economy than other industries, nickel is an indicator variety of non-ferrous metals.
Conclusion of intransitive verbs
Internationally, since 2008, the global economic growth has slowed down and the demand for stainless steel industry has been sluggish. The depression of stainless steel industry is the key factor leading to the decline of nickel consumption. Stainless steel production accounts for about half of global nickel demand. In 2009, the global nickel market was still in excess of supply and demand. According to the latest data of INSG, in 2009, the global refined nickel output was 6.5438+0.32 million tons, and the consumption was 6.5438+0.365438+0.5 million tons, so the supply and demand were relatively balanced.
Domestically, the stainless steel market in China is very prominent. According to the data of American Commodity Research Institute (CRU), the global crude stainless steel output in 2009 was 24.83 million tons, down 6. 1% year-on-year. China's stainless steel production has been growing rapidly. In 2009, the output of Chinese mainland reached 9 million tons, up by 29%, and that of Taiwan Province area of China was 654.38+490,000 tons, up by 1.5%. China's stainless steel production increased from 26% in 2008 to 37% in 2009. At the same time, the price of nickel rose, with the spot price of 80,000-90,000 yuan/ton in the first quarter, reaching 6,543,802,800 yuan/ton in April, reaching the highest value of 6,543,805 yuan/ton in the third quarter, and maintaining the price of 6,543,804 yuan/ton at the end of the year. In recent ten years, China's nickel reserves have hardly increased. Due to the lack of new mines that can be developed in the future, it is almost impossible to greatly increase the supply of domestic raw materials. China will inevitably face a long-term shortage of nickel supply.
(Feng Dandan)