Huangshuyang

Wandering on the edge of investment

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A brokerage firm said: "6.5438+million yuan offline to play New Year's greetings can have an absolute income of 6 million yuan" (which was later proved by itself to be a nonsense figure, and brokers are all nonsense), and there is no risk, which can not be surpassed by any other financial management. What kind of charm is there? Let's introduce it in detail below.

The broker's nonsense began:

First, high returns.

The following are the statistics of new share subscription in February (Class C investors). According to the calculation in the table, the average profit of each new share is 395,000/6 = 79,000. As of March 30th, there are 2,065,438+06 new shares, and the annual income will be 7.9x65,438+09x4 = 600.4 (ten thousand). Considering the accelerated issuance of new shares, it is one of them.

There are two main reasons why the benefits of offline innovation are so high.

1. High probability allotment, effective inquiry (similar to online subscription of new shares), 100% allotment.

Second, the number of rights issues is large.

The general distribution ratio is one tenth of the total number of shares issued offline. For example, if the total number of shares issued is 50 million shares and the number of shares issued offline is 30 million shares, then the number of shares distributed is 3,000 shares. This is something that online innovation cannot surpass. (This is not how the allocation is calculated. If the total number of shares issued is 50 million shares, and the online subscription exceeds 150 times, then the offline placement is only 10% at most, that is, 5 million shares, and the placement probability is determined not according to the number of online issuance lines, but according to the subscription amount. )

I secretly thought:

They finally got that bullshit rate of return, 65.438+million participated in offline innovation, earning 6 million a year and 60% a year. All kinds of brokers nowadays are really shameless. Small business departments cheat retail investors to open accounts and speculate in intraday trading, while big business departments cheat institutions to hedge arbitrage programming. In order to attract customers, they make up a high rate of return by any means, calculate why there is such a high rate of return, and let you transfer all the assets of100000 to their sales department (to attract customers to cheat and make you feel the urge to go). In fact, they all know that they are cheating. If you end up poor and lose money anyway, he doesn't care and has no money to sweep you out. Here, all kinds of small and medium-sized investors who are encouraged to buy stocks by brokers with high indexes are also very wronged. This kind of secret encouragement and deception through information asymmetry is more terrible than stealing and stealing. We need to see which brokers and account managers always speak with their conscience, and which know that, like Putian Department, advertising is loud and killing pigs is blacker than anyone else.

Actual inspection begins:

(Oriental Fortune Online IPO Inquiry) IPO subscription and lottery inquiry, click for details:

Enter this page to check the actual winning rate of offline typing.

Sifang cold chain prospectus:

603339: Sifang cold chain IPO prospectus

Actual inspection:

From the beginning of 20 16 to May of 20 17, 20 16 participated in the IPO innovation in Shanghai stock market, with a cumulative profit of 550,000 shares and an overall position of130,000 Shanghai stock market value. (65438+ new regulation 10 is implemented from the end of May to the end of May, totally 4 months) 55/1300 *12/4 = (1year is converted into April 3rd) The annualized rate of return is about 20%, which is less than/kloc-0.

Detailed solutions to other problems:

Second, the classification of various participants.

Class A investors: Public Offering of Fund, Social Security Fund.

Type B investors: enterprise annuity and insurance.

Class C investors: individuals, private placements and others.

Matching rate: A & gtB& gt；; C allocated quantity = declared quantity x allocation ratio

At present, the distribution ratio is about ten thousandths 1. With more and more new offline users, it will inevitably lead to a decrease in the distribution ratio, a decrease in the distribution quantity, and a decrease in the yield, so the earlier you apply, the greater the income.

Third, the conditions for offline subscription of new shares.

Financial institutional investors

(1) It is established in accordance with the law, has been in business for more than 2 years (inclusive), and has been engaged in A-share investment business for more than 2 years (inclusive).

(2) Having a good credit record. He has not been subjected to criminal punishment in recent 12 months, and has not been given administrative punishment or taken regulatory measures by the relevant regulatory authorities for major violations of laws and regulations.

(three) to meet the market value requirements of the association for offline inquiry objects;

(4) Having the necessary pricing power. Should have the corresponding research strength, effective valuation and pricing model, scientific pricing decision-making system and perfect compliance control;

(5) Its sources of funds are legal and compliant.

Individual investor

(a) can invest in stocks according to law, and have more than 5 years of experience in A-share investment;

(2) Having a good credit record. He has not been subjected to criminal punishment in recent 12 months, and has not been given administrative punishment or taken regulatory measures by the relevant regulatory authorities for major violations of laws and regulations;

(3) Having the necessary pricing power;

(four) in line with the market value requirements of the association for offline inquiry objects;

(5) Its sources of funds are legal and compliant.

(6) At that time, the total assets were at least 6,543,800+million (including cash stocks and wealth management).

Question 1: market value calculation?

A: The market value of online subscription is calculated in the same way as online subscription. According to the corresponding market, the average market value of 20 trading days before the inquiry date100000 can be used to subscribe for new shares issued in the corresponding market. The market value is calculated by combining multiple accounts, including the market value of margin financing and securities lending accounts.

Opening an account requires net assets of100000, while opening a new account only requires per capita total assets of100000 (including the debt position of margin financing and securities lending).

Fourth, start the process of playing new permissions.

Investors submitted application materials to the business department, the business department submitted materials to the investment bank, the investment bank filed with the securities industry association, and the investment bank applied to the stock exchange for a CA certificate, which was successfully opened. Among them, the CA certificate fee of Shanghai Stock Exchange is 800 yuan, and that of Shenzhen Stock Exchange is free.

V. offline subscription process

T-5, publish the prospectus.

Apply to the lead underwriter before noon on T-4 12.

T-3, online roadshow, offline subscription and inquiry on electronic platform.

On T- 1 day, an announcement will be issued to determine the issue price and finalist results.

T-day online subscription electronic platform subscription new shares.

T+2 days, announce the placement results and pay.

Note: Subscription qualification requires holding 6,543,800 A shares with unlimited sale conditions 20 trading days before T-5, and some companies will set higher requirements. Please refer to the prospectus for details.

Intransitive verb query element

Declare the price, judge according to your own knowledge, and fill in the report independently. The quotation must be accurate, otherwise it will become an invalid declaration, be eliminated, and can no longer participate in online subscription.

For investors who do not have the inquiry ability, they can contact the corresponding business department to calculate the inquiry price, and the accuracy is generally high.

The number of declarations, the highest is the total amount of offline issuance, not less than the minimum number of declarations, and the number of declarations must be an integer multiple of 654.38 million shares. See the prospectus for details. Those that do not meet the requirements are invalid declarations.

Note: Each investor can make multiple declarations, with the last declaration as the final declaration. The earlier the declaration time is, the more the declaration quantity is, and the greater the probability of being allocated.

Question 2: Can a securities firm subscribe for new shares underwritten by other securities firms after opening the authority?

A: Yes, you need to apply to the lead underwriter in advance for every purchase. The application method is generally to send an email, which will be specified in the announcement. Since the subscription system is an electronic platform for the exchange to subscribe, it has nothing to do with brokers, and the lead underwriter cannot refuse because he has not opened an account there.

Question 3: What is the relationship between the declared quantity and the market value?

A: The market value of a single market is more than 6.5438+million, so you can participate in offline inquiry. There is no necessary connection between the amount of offline declaration and the holding market value. The market value of 654.38+million is only related to whether you have the right to participate in offline inquiry.

Seventh, the callback mechanism.

When the online subscription reaches a certain number, some new shares will be sold online from offline. That is, reduce offline circulation and increase online circulation. Generally speaking, if the effective subscription multiple of online investors exceeds 50 times and is lower than 100 times (inclusive), the callback ratio is 20% of the public offering; If it is more than 100 times and less than 150 times (inclusive), the callback ratio shall be 40% of the issued quantity; If it exceeds 150 times, the offline circulation shall not exceed 10% of the total circulation. (Effective online subscription multiple = total effective online subscription/total online issuance)

Purchase and payment

Eight. Procurement arrangement and payment

The time for offline subscription of new shares is the same as online subscription, and the subscription price is the same. It is the price generated during the inquiry period, and it is subscribed according to the number of shares at the time of inquiry.

The winning bid will be announced on T+2, and the payment will be made before four o'clock, which is the same as the online subscription process.

If payment is made by transfer, the other party's account will be announced in the announcement.

Question 4: Is there a three-month lock-up period for offline innovation?

A: No, there was a three-month lock-up period before, but this rule has been cancelled.

Question 5: For investors who usually hold less than 6.5438+million shares, how to ensure the capital safety of A shares?

A: You can hedge with cash and options.

Option hedging method: buy 6,543,800,000 shares with market value according to the proportion of 50ETF shares, and at the same time buy a corresponding number of put options, redeem 50ETF shares with shares before the expiration date, then exercise the put options and sell 50 ETF at a specific price. So as to achieve the purpose of preserving value.

Playing the new offline is no longer mysterious, continue to observe in practice!

Off-topic association: What are our strategic considerations for determining the new rate of return offline? For example, holding CCB H and CCB A, due to different valuations, H shares cannot participate in innovation. Therefore, the valuation gap between the two will lead to different thresholds for moving bricks because of my extra new rate of return. Imagine that if the construction bank H 0.65PB and the construction bank A0.8PB, the risk-free income for one year can reach 20%. Will I buy H shares or A shares? Obviously, it seems that everyone is trying to improve their internal strength (understanding the quality of banking stocks). If you don't practice your external skills well, you won't consider them comprehensively enough. If we study both inside and outside (including the most advanced valuation method of bank stocks (Yunmeng currently represents one of the most advanced investors in the internal valuation of bank stocks, and we are absorbing its advantages to supplement our evaluation system), we can find other comprehensive additional considerations, including transaction costs and financing interest rates. ), let's get closer to science investment! Value investment has a long way to go.

Edited on 2016/07/20