1, production and consumption
(1) international market
Production of aluminum ingot
The real industrialized production of aluminum industry in the world began at 1886. 1956, global aluminum production began to surpass copper, becoming the second largest metal after (steel) iron. In recent years, with the improvement of technology and equipment level of global aluminum processing industry, the global aluminum output has increased rapidly. According to the statistics of the Commodity Research Bureau of London (CRU), the global total output of primary aluminum in 20 12 years reached 47710.8 million tons. Aluminum ingot production is mainly concentrated in China, the United States, Russian, Canadian, Australian and other countries.
Consumption of aluminum ingot
With the increase of electrolytic aluminum production and the wide application of aluminum alloy, the consumption of aluminum increases rapidly. According to CRU's statistics, in 20 12, the total global demand for primary aluminum was 47.258 million tons, with an overall supply surplus of 460,000 tons.
(2) Domestic market
Production of aluminum ingot
China aluminum industry started in 1950s, and after more than 50 years' development, it has become the focus of global aluminum industry. According to statistics of Antaike, the national electrolytic aluminum output reached 22.3 million tons in 20 12.
Consumption of aluminum ingot
The sustained and rapid economic development in China has driven the growth of domestic aluminum consumption. In the three major fields of construction, electricity and packaging, aluminum has gradually become the main consumer. China is the largest aluminum consumer in the world. According to Antaike's statistics, the demand for electrolytic aluminum in China in 20 12 years is 21850,000 tons.
aluminium oxide
Alumina is the main raw material for electrolytic aluminum production. Because the international alumina market is highly concentrated, most alumina (80%~90%) in the world is sold through long-term contracts. Therefore, the fluctuation of alumina supply and price will affect the production cost of electrolytic aluminum.
electricity bill
The average power consumption per ton of aluminum in electrolytic aluminum plants at home and abroad is about1.4000 kW _ h/t, so a small fluctuation of electricity price will have a great impact on the production cost of electrolytic aluminum.
2. Global economic situation
Aluminum is a widely used non-ferrous metal variety, especially in developed countries or regions, aluminum consumption has been highly related to economic development. When the economy of a country or region develops rapidly, the consumption of aluminum will also increase simultaneously. Similarly, the economic recession will lead to a sharp decline in aluminum consumption. In addition, the price fluctuation of some metals related to aluminum, the fluctuation of international oil price and the change of industrial policies in various countries will all have an impact on the price of aluminum.
3. Import and export tariffs
The impact of import and export tariffs on aluminum prices is particularly prominent. For example, since June 2006 165438+ 10, domestic electrolytic aluminum exports no longer enjoy the export tax rebate of 15%, and an export tariff of 15% is added. Since July 20 1 1, the state has completely cancelled the tax refund for products such as non-alloy aluminum bars, rods, profiles and aluminum wires. The adjustment of import and export tariffs on aluminum-related products in China will not only change the supply and demand relationship of aluminum ingots in China, but also have a certain impact on the supply and demand relationship and price in the international market.
4. Industrial policy
When an industry is in urgent need of revitalization and development, the government will introduce a series of policies to vigorously support the development of the industry. When the supply of products in this industry exceeds demand or has a great impact on energy consumption and the environment, the government will introduce some policies to curb the large-scale expansion of production capacity in this industry. The change of industrial policy has obvious transmission to the output of aluminum industry, and then to the market price.
In February 2009, the State Council reviewed and approved the Plan for the Adjustment and Revitalization of Nonferrous Metals Industry, which clearly stated that "in principle, new construction, renovation and expansion of electrolytic aluminum projects will no longer be approved in the next three years"; 2011110. In October, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries and commissions issued the Plan for Promoting the Development of Renewable Nonferrous Metals Industry, which accelerated the utilization of renewable nonferrous metals. 20 12 1, the state formulated the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Development of Aluminum Industry" and continued to strictly control the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and completely eliminate backward production capacity.
5. Financial attributes
International aluminum trade is generally priced and settled in US dollars. Therefore, the trend of the US dollar and the exchange rate of the US dollar will have an impact on the aluminum price. In addition, the position and direction of commodity funds in the international market also have a great influence on aluminum prices.