China's arable land is short of potassium, and potassium salt used for potash production is a scarce mineral resource in China, which has long relied on imports to meet the needs of agricultural production. The demand for potash fertilizer in China has been increasing at a faster rate than that of nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer.

According to industry analysis, unlike other fertilizer raw materials, potash fertilizer is in short supply worldwide, and it is concentrated in Canada, Russia, Israel, Jordan and the Middle East, controlled by a few countries, and its price is basically in a monopoly position. In recent years, agriculture in South America, Southeast Asia and other regions has developed rapidly, and the demand for potash fertilizer is increasing every year.

It is reported that there are two main types of potash fertilizer in China: potassium sulfate and potassium chloride. Wanxiang Company is about to introduce potassium nitrate, which can be used to make both nitrogen and potassium. It is a chlorine-free potassium-nitrogen compound fertilizer. At present, this kind of potassium nitrate is rarely used in China, and this kind of "green potash fertilizer", which is called the world shortage, is more popular in European countries.

China is one of the largest potash consumers in the world, accounting for about 20% of the world's potash consumption. From the consumption situation over the years, the total input of potash fertilizer increased from 386,000 tons in 1980 to 7.2 million tons in 2005, and the average annual consumption growth rate reached 12%. Through hard work, the annual output of potash fertilizer in China has reached about 2.6 million tons (K2O), which can only meet about 30% of domestic demand for potash fertilizer. About 5 million to 6 million tons of potash fertilizer need to be imported every year. The demand for potash fertilizer in China will still maintain an average annual growth rate of 6.5438+0.5 million tons, but the output of potash fertilizer in China will only reach 3 million tons before 2065.438+0, and the import volume will further increase.

Seeing the continuous growth of potash import in China, international potash suppliers have formed a unanimous alliance to raise potash prices year by year. In 2005, the negotiation of potash fertilizer increased by USD 40 on the basis of RMB 65,438+0,000/ton, USD 25/ton in 2006, USD 5/ton in 2007 and USD 400/ton in 2008. This directly led to a sharp rise in the retail price of potash fertilizer in China, reaching 2,800 yuan/ton at the end of 2007, double that of three years ago, and continued to rise in 2008. Solving the supply and stabilizing the price of potash fertilizer has become a thorny issue for China.

At present, the measures to solve this problem are to increase the development of China's own potassium resources, constantly strengthen the utilization of potassium resources in neighboring countries, and strengthen the means of import negotiation between China and other international importers. However, China's own supply capacity of potassium salt can hardly exceed 3.5 million tons before 20 10, and the developing countries such as Thailand and Laos can't form a scale before 20 15, and the maximum substitution capacity can only reach 3 million tons. Therefore, it is difficult for China potash fertilizer to get rid of the shackles of imports for a long time. At present, influenced by the development of bioenergy, the global demand for potash fertilizer is increasing at a rate of more than 1 10,000 tons per year, which leads to the tightening of global potash supply. Potash suppliers have mastered this clue. Even if China reaches an offensive and defensive alliance with Brazil, India, Southeast Asia and other countries, it is difficult to reverse the trend of rising prices and fundamentally solve the passive situation of potash fertilizer imports.

At present, it is urgent to solve this problem from the agricultural field, which is also the common voice of the country and industry. Before 1980s, China mainly invested in organic fertilizer, and soil potassium was in short supply, with an annual deficit of about 6.5438+0.5 million tons. After 1980s, although fertilizer potassium was widely used, the sharp increase of crop yield further expanded the shortage of soil potassium to about 5 million tons, which promoted the further application of potassium fertilizer. In 2 1 century, China's crop output stopped, but the input of potassium fertilizer continued to increase, and the shortage of soil potassium decreased to about 1.2 million tons. Considering that the soil is rich in potassium, these shortages are allowed, and we do not pursue a large surplus of potassium. Therefore, at this stage, we should first give these information from the macro level, control the input of potassium fertilizer, and fully tap the potassium in the soil. On the other hand, we should develop the organic potassium resources in China. The total amount of organic potassium resources in China straw is about 7.5 million tons. Because the recycling rate is only 50%, the actual amount that can be returned to the field every year is less than 6 million tons, and 6.5438+0.5 million tons of resources are lost through incineration and straw waste, which is exactly equivalent to the shortage of potassium in farmland soil in China. Therefore, improving the direct return of straw to the field can maintain the balance of soil potassium at the current level of potassium input. However, if the existing soil potassium balance is maintained and the organic potassium resources are fully utilized, the potassium fertilizer import can be reduced 1/3.