Smooth and orderly monetary policy
Since February, the central bank has invested a total of 28 trillion yuan in short-term funds in the open market. However, with the expiration of reverse repurchase, the excess liquidity of emergency investment has been basically recovered, and the open market operation will return to normal in the later period. On the other hand, it is necessary to rely on policy coordination to promote economic operation in a reasonable range, and the normal adjustment is "no sharp turn". On February 3rd, the central bank launched 12 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation in the open market to ensure sufficient liquidity supply, and the central bank passed the statutory RRR cut.
At the same time, the three companies, Silver, Minmin and Minmin, also made frequent gains. Two days after the opening of the market, the central bank released a total of 17 trillion yuan through open market operations, which fully demonstrated the determination of the central bank to stabilize market expectations and boost market confidence. China's Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2020 recently pointed out that a prudent monetary policy should be more flexible, moderate and accurate to better meet the needs of high-quality economic development. Pay more attention to the quality and efficiency of financial services to the real economy. Two days before the market opened, the central bank invested a total of 17 trillion yuan in liquidity, which kept the market liquidity supply sufficient after the holiday and boosted market confidence.
People in the industry generally believe that under the background of monetary policy shift, market liquidity from tight to loose, and poor credit transmission caused by loose money and tight credit, the role of credit in bill business has been fully brought into play, and 20 18 has been restored. Against the background of the COVID-19 epidemic and the increasing downward pressure on the economy, listed banks still maintained a good profit growth rate. On August 25th, President Yi Gang said at a regular policy meeting in the State Council. The orientation of prudent monetary policy remains unchanged, the requirements of flexible and moderate operation remain unchanged, and the determination to adhere to normal monetary policy remains unchanged, that is, "stability and order" will become the key words to help enterprises withdraw from the bail-out policy.
The currency is flexible and the liquidity is reasonable and abundant.
At the regular policy meeting in the State Council, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said that the withdrawal should be based on an accurate assessment of the economic situation and there should be no "policy cliff". It is understood that helping small and micro enterprises is an important task under the epidemic situation, and the central bank has a clear inclination in credit strength. Some local banks have also relaxed their application conditions, and macro policies have gradually returned to "neutrality". Economic recovery has promoted the unemployment rate to return to normal, and employment problems have weakened the constraints of macro policy withdrawal. Liang, a researcher at China Banking Research Institute, said,
Although abnormal policies will return to normal, the macro policy of 202 1 set by the Central Economic Conference is still sustained, stable and sustainable. I believe that the fiscal and monetary policy of "no sharp turn" will still support the market funds next year. Compared with last year's meeting, "prudent monetary policy should be flexible and moderate, and liquidity should be reasonable and abundant", this meeting put more emphasis on the precise orientation of monetary policy, focusing on strengthening scientific and technological innovation, financial support for small and micro enterprises, and monetary and fiscal policies.
It is necessary to ensure that the rhythm and intensity of policies cannot affect the judgment of various subjects on policy expectations. On the basis of keeping the main tone of policy regulation unchanged, pre-adjustment and fine-tuning should be carried out according to changes in the economic and financial situation to stabilize the production and operation expectations of enterprises.
A policy of housing rather than speculation
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that the economic operation of 20021should be stable, and the policy should avoid ups and downs. In order to continue to help market players who have been severely hit by the epidemic to resume their normal operations as soon as possible, some tax reduction and fee reduction policies and inclusive finance measures should be maintained at an appropriate level and cannot be abruptly withdrawn. "This year, we must deal with the phased increase in macro leverage caused by the epidemic, and we must handle the relationship between economic recovery and risk prevention next year.
According to Guo Lei, chief economist of GF Securities, three sensitive areas of traditional financial policy in 20021,such as real estate, local financing and shadow banking, will also be more cautious than in 2020. In the epidemic response period, the financial support policy will be phased, and the policy will gradually pay attention to issues such as incentive integration and moral hazard to prevent spillover effects, and consider the timely withdrawal of policy tools. The leverage ratio is expected to increase significantly in 2020, 202 1.
In addition, the leverage ratio is expected to increase significantly in 2020, and 202 1 will enter a stable leverage stage. First of all, RRR's comprehensive interest rate cut has released a lot of long-term liquidity; Secondly, the central bank's open market operations are exerted, and the possibility of achieving a net investment in September is not small; Finally, September is a big month for traditional fiscal expenditure, and the fiscal treasury will put in liquidity. Yif Wang, chief banking analyst of Everbright Securities, said that the 20021structural monetary policy is still the main force, and the investment decision-making power of investment targets is given to insurance institutions, which provides greater autonomy.
The implementation of credit policy will continue to be included in the macro-prudential assessment (MPA), and the central bank will still maintain a reasonable and sufficient market liquidity through policy tools such as open market operations. However, it is unlikely that RRR will cut interest rates in an all-round way, which does not rule out the possibility of lowering the deposit reserve ratio in a targeted manner and using liquidity to support small and medium-sized enterprises and manufacturing industries. Under the background of the central government's policy of "housing and not speculating", real estate in various places will remain stable and tight, the demand for interest rate cuts and RRR cuts will decrease, and the downward pressure on the economy will continue to increase.
Open market interest rate
On the other hand, global and domestic prices will be at a moderate level in 20021year, and the recovery of GDP growth will not lead to overheating of the economy, so there are no conditions for raising interest rates and standards and implementing large-scale monetary tightening policies. At the same time, the meeting reaffirmed that monetary policy will remain stable, flexible, moderate and accurately release liquidity. From this point of view, in the specific implementation process of monetary policy, there will be a high probability of seeing the central bank's comprehensive RRR cut and mlf and open market operating interest rates next year.