Recently, the PTA processing fee has continued to strengthen, rising from negative value in the year to the highest 1000 yuan/ton.
In this regard, Shen Yinjiao, senior analyst of Huarui Information, explained that the increase in PTA processing fee was mainly due to the continuous low PTA operating rate and the increase in PTA clearance since the end of July. In addition, the production and sales of polyester improved and the load increased in stages. PTA cleared 240,000 tons in August, and it is expected to clear more than 300,000 tons in September. However, the liquidity of PTA spot market continues to be tight, which drives the PTA spot basis to rise to 1000 yuan.
"Since the end of July, PTA processing fees have started to rise from below 300 yuan/ton, and the highest in early September was above 1000 yuan/ton, mainly due to the tight spot, which led to firm prices." In her view, the change of PTA processing fee mainly reflects the supply and demand pattern of spot market. High processing fees often mean that the spot is tight, and low processing fees often mean that the spot supply is sufficient.
In Pang's view, PTA processing fee is only the gross profit that PTA production can get at the current PX price. However, there is a time difference of about half a month between overseas purchasing PX and entering the factory production process. At the same time, if there are factories in stock, there is still a difference between the purchase price of raw materials in stock and the current price of raw materials. In fact, the operating conditions of different manufacturers are different. "Overall, industry profits are low first and then high, and the benefits of different enterprises are different." Pang said to him:
"For the polyester industry chain, the repair of processing fees usually indicates that the supply and demand pattern of PTA has improved and it is in the destocking channel." Liu Siqi, an analyst of Zijin Tianfeng Futures, said that overall, PTA processing fees were at a high level in the same period of last year. According to the processing fee of about 700-800, domestic PTA plants are basically in a profitable state.
The profit PTA load has not improved.
According to Shen Yinjiao, the production progress of PX is relatively slow this year. In addition to a 900,000-ton PX plant in Jiujiang Petrochemical Company, the PX plants in Hongsheng and Shandong Fuhai are expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and the contribution of new devices to PX increment is low. Due to the comprehensive benefits of refineries and unplanned maintenance, the operating rate of PX is not high, and the domestic operating rate fluctuates around 70%-80%. In addition, the import volume of PX has also shrunk dramatically since this year, from10.2 million tons in October to 610.5 million tons in July. Therefore, since the beginning of the year, the supply and demand of PX are mostly in the destocking stage (except in March), and the raw material inventories of many PTA plants have fallen sharply.
Affected by weather factors in a short time, such as dock operation and ship docking. At present, when the PX inventory is low, once the storage is delayed, the raw material inventory will become more and more tense. "Judging from the current tracking situation of PTA devices, some devices do operate in negative mode." Shen Yinjiao said that at present, the overall starting load of PTA is below 70%.
Fig. 3 part of PTA plant dynamics
According to Zhu, an analyst of Zheshang Futures, it is very rare for all existing PTA devices, especially for large-scale production cycles, to have such a high processing fee. However, due to the strong economy of oil adjustment before, the supply of aromatic hydrocarbons did not really return. "The PX load in China, including other Asian countries, is not very high, and the logistics imported from Europe and the United States has not fully recovered, which leads to the actual shortage of PX supply and limits the load level of PTA."
Or PTA faces the pressure of processing fee compression.
"As long as the problem of PX supply side can be effectively solved, the follow-up PTA supply side is enough." Zhu said that with the end of the adjustment logic of aromatic oil, the load of PX equipment in its own inventory is slowly increasing, the price difference between the United States and Asia is repaired, and the subsequent imports from Europe and the United States will gradually increase. At present, the new PX devices of Hongsheng and Shandong William Chemical are expected to be put into operation in June+10, 5438. By then, with the realization of the production capacity of the new device, PX supply will return faster, which is expected to alleviate the shortage of raw material M.
In Liu Siqi's view, the high processing cost of PTA depends on the tight supply of raw materials. In the short term, the maintenance of domestic PX devices remains high, and the import reflux is slow. Before the new PX plant was put into operation from September to June, 65438+ 10, the supply was still tight, PTA plant began to recover slowly, PTA supply and demand were tight, and the processing cost could be maintained in a short time.
Shen Yinjiao believes that short-term PTA supply and demand are still in a state of destocking, but with the completion of warehouse receipt delivery, spot liquidity has improved, and the support for processing fees may not be as good as in the previous period, but it still remains at a high level during the year.
"In the context of PTA overcapacity, maintaining a low operating rate is also a helpless move for enterprises. PTA production will accelerate again in the fourth quarter, when the optimization in the industry will continue, and some devices with weak competitiveness or lack of industrial supporting facilities will gradually withdraw from the market. " Shen Yinzhen said.
This article is from Futures Daily.
Related question and answer: What is PTA? PTA is the abbreviation of purified terephthalic acid, so PTA is a device for producing purified terephthalic acid.