As of the close of February 8th, Beijing time, the price of WTI crude oil futures for March delivery has fallen by 1.24%, while the price of Brent crude oil futures for April delivery has fallen by 0.84% to close at $54.47/barrel.
This is the fifth consecutive week that international oil prices have fallen. Compared with the height of 65438+1October 6, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have fallen by more than 20%.
JTC proposes to reduce the daily output by 600,000 barrels again. According to MohamedArkab, Algeria's oil minister, JTC proposed to postpone the production reduction until the end of the second quarter.
Russia's attitude towards this is vague. According to Reuters, on February 6th, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov expressed his support for OPEC's production reduction measures. However, on February 7th, Russian Energy Minister Novak said that COVID-19's popularity in China may reduce the global demand for crude oil by1.5,000-200,000 barrels per day, and Russia needs more time to assess the market situation.
Nowak believes that there is no obvious indication that China's demand for Russian energy is declining, and the world crude oil market remains stable due to the slow growth of US crude oil production.
On February 6, 20 19, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reached a new production reduction agreement. By the end of March 2020, the organization's production reduction rate reached 6,543.8+0.7 million barrels per day, and with an additional 400,000 barrels per day in Saudi Arabia, the final production reduction rate reached 2,654.38+0.8 million barrels per day, equivalent to the current world demand for crude oil.
According to Platts' statistics, in June 5438+ 10, the output of crude oil of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was 29.08 million barrels per day, about 470,000 barrels per day less than that of the previous month, about 1.
According to the agency's data, Saudi Arabia's production reduction plan continues to exceed Libya's crude oil supply, and the port blockade continues to decline. Iraq and Nigeria failed to fulfill the production reduction agreement, and crude oil production continued to exceed the quota requirements. Venezuela's crude oil output rose to 820,000 barrels per day, up 13.89% from the previous month.
OPEC's production cuts are still not enough to stabilize oil prices. After the COVID-19 outbreak, China's energy consumption changed, which affected the prospect of crude oil demand in the world market.
Wood Mackenzie, a market research organization, predicts that the world oil demand will decrease by about 900,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, which is close to the current world crude oil consumption 1%.
IHSMakit, an energy consulting company, predicts that the global demand for crude oil will decrease by about 500,000 barrels per day in 2020 compared with the same period of last year, the first time since 2009.
Major international oil companies also believe that the popularity of COVID-19 will reduce the international demand for crude oil.
Briangilvary, CEO of BP, said in an interview with Reuters that the world oil demand was reduced by 200,000-300,000 barrels per day due to the reduction of industrial activities and the cancellation of flights due to the epidemic.
He believes that the world economic growth has slowed down and the world demand for crude oil has decreased by about 0.5%.
On the conference call with analysts, the CEO of ConocoPhillips predicted that the increase of global crude oil demand in 2020 would be less than the predicted 1 10,000 barrels per day1-200,000 barrels per day.
In recent years, with the slowdown of global economic growth and the market situation of oversupply, international oil prices have been at a low level for a long time. OPEC production cuts and geopolitical crisis ultimately failed to raise oil prices.
At the beginning of June 5438+ 10 this year, the conflict between the United States and Iran escalated, which pushed up the oil price in a short time. Brent crude oil once stood at the $70/barrel mark, and WTI crude oil once exceeded $65/barrel. However, with the slow regional conflicts, international oil prices began to dive.