Judging from the situation of upstream and downstream industrial chains, we believe that the recent rise of PTA is mainly driven by PX at the cost end, and PTA is passive. Because of the Russian-Ukrainian war, European and American countries imposed sanctions on Russia, which led to the rise of global crude oil, coal, natural gas and other commodities. In addition, the summer driving season in the United States is coming, and the price of gasoline in the United States has reached a record high.
The profit of oil products is high, but the production loss of PX is serious. Some refineries in the United States choose to reduce PX production and adjust oil, resulting in a decrease in PX production, and then purchase PX from Asia. Since May, the market began to speculate that PX is expected to have a tight supply and demand situation. PX has increased by about $300/ton in the last month, and the price difference between PX and naphtha has increased by about $400/ton. The strong rise of PX pushed PTA up, the increase was less than PX, and the profit of PTA production changed from break-even to loss of 500 yuan/ton.
Whether the PX market outlook can continue to push up PTA depends on the supply and demand of PX. From last year 10 to March this year, the production profit of PX has been kept at a low level, and March-April is the peak season for maintenance every year. Under the influence of low profit, the PX factory stopped production or reduced load this year, and the operating rate of PX in Asia and China both dropped to a lower level in the same period of last year. The sharp contraction of the supply side also provides an opportunity for the speculation of oil adjustment demand.
At present, with the substantial increase of PX production profit, PX production load has also been significantly improved. As of last Friday, the domestic PX operating rate has increased to 85.6%, and the PX load in Asia has increased to 77. 1%, and the load has all risen to a high level. In addition, Jiujiang Petrochemical's 900,000-ton plant was put into production in May and the products were delivered in early June. The new factory will also provide new PX production. With the improvement of PX supply, the supply and demand of PX in Asian market tend to be loose under the premise of limited increase of PTA start-up load.
Can the PX import demand in the US market change the pattern of loose supply and demand of PX in Asia? The monthly demand for PX in the United States is about 6.5438+0.8 million tons, while the monthly demand for PX in China is about 3 million tons. Even if the United States imports all PX from Asia, the impact will be too small to change the supply and demand pattern in Asia.
Both supply and demand sides are not optimistic.
The upstream raw material PX analysis is finished, and then look at PTA. In the past two years, PTA production capacity has continued to increase and industry competition has intensified. High inventory and low profit are the normal state of the industry, and high-cost equipment has been forced to stop production for a long time. Since the beginning of this year, PTA production profits have been low, and the operating rate has been falling all the way. The average operating rate of the industry gradually decreased from 80% in June 5438+ 10 to about 73% in May. With the contraction of the supply side, PTA supply and demand continued to improve after the Spring Festival. However, because the upstream crude oil and PX were too strong and the downstream was suppressed by the epidemic, the absolute price of PTA rose with the upstream, and the profit was not repaired.
Looking forward to the market outlook, in the long run, PTA production peak will continue, but the output will be concentrated after the end of this year, and the production pressure of new devices has a weak impact on the year. In the short and medium term, PTA plant maintenance is too concentrated in the first half of the year, and PTA plant maintenance may be reduced in the second half of the year, and the industry operating rate is expected to gradually increase.
On the demand side, polyester enterprises generally fall into the predicament of high inventory and production loss. Recently, some polyester enterprises began to reduce production and load, so it is difficult for PTA to greatly increase the demand for polyester. Therefore, from PTA's own situation, it is difficult for industry profits to increase substantially, and the industry downturn may continue.
This article is from Futures Daily.
Related Q&A: What is pta220 1 Futures? Pta220 1 is the pta futures number. At present, PTA is ready to break the market trend. PTA can enter the market in batches around 5030, with a take profit of 50-70 points and a stop loss of 5050. PTA futures, that is, the dominant trading variety with phthalic acid as the subject matter, is a futures variety listed on Zhengzhou Commodity Futures Exchange. PTA is the abbreviation of pure terephthalic acid, and it is one of the important bulk organic raw materials. Its main use is to produce polyester fiber (polyester), polyester bottle chips and polyester films, which are widely used in chemical fiber, light industry, electronics, construction and other aspects of the national economy and are closely related to people's living standards. The use of PTA is relatively concentrated. More than 90% of PTA in the world is used to produce polyethylene terephthalate (PET), and the rest is used as raw materials for polypropylene terephthalate (PTT), polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) and other products. PTA production process can be divided into two parts: oxidation unit and hydrofining unit. The raw material PX is oxidized into crude terephthalic acid by air with acetic acid as solvent under the action of catalyst, and then the crude product is obtained by crystallization, filtration and drying in turn. Crude terephthalic acid is hydrogenated to remove impurities, then crystallized, centrifugally separated and dried to obtain PTA finished products. Domestic PTA production technology and equipment are imported, and the products of different manufacturers, whether state-owned enterprises, private enterprises or imported, are very consistent in quality. In 2005, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document recommending the enterprise standard 1995 from the national level. Purified terephthalic acid for industrial use (SH/T1612.5438+0-2005). Inspection rule 1. The items specified in Table 2. 1 of this standard are all type test items, except that the chromaticity is 5g/ 100mLDMF, all other items are ex-factory inspection items. During normal production, type inspection shall be conducted at least once a month. 2.PTA products are grouped by batches with the same quality and uniformity, and can be grouped by production cycle, production shift or product storage warehouse.