What caused the pig price to continue to fall in the first half of 20 12? Why has there been a steady increase since the third quarter? Let's briefly analyze it.
First, the main reasons for the decline of the live pig market in the first half of the year:
1, the stock of sows increased rapidly in the second half of last year, which led to an increase in the stock this year.
20 1 1 In the second half of the year, the pig market was good and soared. Breeding profits have stimulated the enthusiasm of farmers to fill the column to a certain extent, and the state has also increased its support for raising pigs. In addition, according to the requirements of their own development strategic objectives, large-scale pig-raising enterprises continue to expand their scale and increase the number of fertile sows. According to analysis and statistics, compared with the first half of the year, the number of sows that can breed in the second half of the year increased by 10.
20 1 1 During the favorable market in the second half of the year, the feed cost required to obtain a catty of meat was much lower than the selling price. Therefore, from the second half of 20 1 1, the average slaughter weight of pigs in most parts of the country has increased to varying degrees, and the normal slaughter weight of pigs is 105- 165438. Therefore, the increase of single pig pork supply also led to the continuous decline of pig price in the first half of 20 12.
2. The influence of domestic and international economic situation.
From the macro-economic point of view at home and abroad, the existence of factors such as poor export, weak economic growth, persistent inflationary pressure, declining corporate profits, and difficulties in increasing residents' income led to greater instability of economic growth in the first half of 20 12, which further affected the desire and ability of domestic pork consumption.
In order to stabilize the rising price of meat and slow down the rising pressure of CPI, China imported a large number of frozen pork and pig offal from abroad in 20 1 1 year. From June to May of 5438+0, according to customs statistics, the imported foreign pork exceeded 1 10,000 tons, and China also signed an import agreement with the British government on frozen meat. A large number of imported frozen pork and frozen pig offal increased the supply of pork to a certain extent, but also lowered the domestic pork price.
3. The influence of off-season consumption.
After the Spring Festival of 20 12, pork consumption entered the traditional off-season, coupled with warmer weather, consumption decreased, and the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent. The pig price fluctuated at a low level with the increase of temperature (14 yuan/kg).
Reasons for the steady growth in the third quarter
In view of the serious drop in the price of live pigs in 1-2 quarter, the state started a three-level response mechanism to prevent the excessive drop in the price of live pigs, and started pork storage and storage in the whole province at the beginning of June, and the regulation effect of frozen meat storage and storage appeared, which promoted the rebound of live pig prices to some extent.
From the end of August to September, with the decrease of weather and temperature and the opening of colleges and universities, the number of "champion banquets" increased and the demand for pork increased significantly. In addition, August and September are the "off-season" of pigs, and the amount of slaughter is relatively reduced, which is affected by the relationship between supply and demand, leading to an increase in pig prices. Since September, the price of live pigs has been basically stable, and the average purchase price of live pigs has remained at around 14.60- 15.00 yuan/kg for four consecutive weeks. Because the overall supply of pigs this year has increased significantly compared with last year, the price of pigs has risen steadily.
In the fourth quarter, the live pig market maintained a steady upward trend.
In the fourth quarter, especially during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, the weather turned cold. During the traditional bacon season from June to February in 5438, the demand for live pigs increased and the price rose steadily. However, due to the increase of pig slaughter in the early stage, sufficient slaughter, pig selling and stable fluctuation of pig price, the price basically remained at 16 yuan/kg.
Second, forecast the price trend of 20 13 live pigs.
20 13, affected by the periodicity of the live pig market, domestic large-scale pig-raising enterprises expanded rapidly, and the number of live pigs on hand and the number of live pigs on sale increased; We predict that the benefit of raising pigs in 20 13 years will not be better than that in 20 12 years; The overall trend of live pig price is similar to 20 12, showing a "V" trend. In the new year, affected by the increase in consumption during the Spring Festival, the price will rebound to some extent before and after the Spring Festival, but it will fall back after the Spring Festival, and it will officially enter the downward channel at the end of the first quarter, and it is expected to reach the lowest price in the whole year in May and June. It may rise steadily in the third and fourth quarters. It is estimated that the overall price of live pigs in 20 13 years will not be higher than that in 20 12 years. If there is no major epidemic, no changes in national regulatory policies, no major natural disasters and emergencies, it is expected that the pig price will fluctuate around 14- 17 yuan/kg.