Situation 1:20 12 At the beginning of September, the market's expectation of launching QE3 in the United States continued to heat up. On September 6th, the closing price of silver futures was $32.67 per ounce, and the call option price of silver futures with exercise price of $33 was $65,438+$0.702 per ounce. Assuming that investors are optimistic about the future trend of silver, they have two speculative schemes: one is to buy. 2. Buy 1 hand 65438+February Comex silver futures option (to simplify the calculation, the Comex margin ratio is calculated as 10%, the option bulls do not pay the margin, and the option bears pay the margin of the same amount as the corresponding futures).
Since then, the Federal Reserve has launched QE3, and the price of precious metals has risen sharply. The closing price of silver futures on June 65438+1October 65438+1October 0 is $34.95/oz, and the price of call option with exercise price of $33 is 2.5 1 1 USD/oz. Under the two schemes, the return of investors is long futures, (34.95-33) * 5000/(33 * 5000 *10%) = 59%. Long options, if investors choose to close their positions, (2.51-1.70) * 5000/(1.70 * 5000) = 47.53%; If the investor chooses to exercise the right, immediately liquidate future positions, (34.95-33-1.702)/1.702 =14.57% (giving up the right).
From this point of view, although the yield of option bulls is not as good as that of futures bulls, the capital of option bulls (1.702*5000) is only far less than that of futures bulls, which is about half of that of futures bulls, so option investors need not worry about insufficient margin during their positions.
Scenario 2: After the launch of QE3, investors think that the price of silver will go out of an M-head in September and 10, and the price is near the neckline. Under the background of QE3, the European debt crisis and the US fiscal cliff, the price of silver with certain hedging properties will not fall sharply, but the short-term upward momentum is insufficient, and the possibility of future shocks is greater. Therefore, it is decided to sell long-span options and earn royalties.