1. The international oil cartel, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, was close to monopoly in the world oil supply market from 65438 to 0972. What kind of demand factors will lead to this monopoly pattern being broken? What factors exist on the supply side that can break this monopoly pattern?

Answer: (1) Understand that international oil cartels are close to monopoly.

Cartel is an oligopoly organization formed by open collusion among oligarchs, which is unique to collusion. Within the monopoly organization, oligopolistic manufacturers coordinate their actions and determine the price according to the principle of maximizing the profit of the monopoly organization. In this way, cartels are like monopoly manufacturers. As long as the market demand is quite inelastic, it can raise the price to a level far higher than competition. Cartel is actually a trade union organization. The purpose is to raise prices and control the output of such products. Cartels are illegal in some countries, but they already exist internationally, such as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Cartel organization is very similar to multi-factory monopoly, the only difference is that the manufacturers in cartel organization are not owned by a single owner, so the output prices of each manufacturer are not easy to control. However, there is only one owner in the multi-factory monopoly, who can properly control the output and market price of each factory to achieve the best interests of the whole.

The main task of cartel is to determine the price and divide the market. In determining the price, several manufacturers first form a cartel, then a management team is formed and a unified product sales or service price is determined, thus forming a monopoly price. Regarding the division of the market, through internal negotiations and consultations, the total output or sales volume of the cartel is allocated to the member manufacturers in a certain proportion, and the market is finally divided. The first condition is that a stable cartel must be formed on the basis that its members reach an agreement on prices and production levels and abide by it. Because different members have different costs, different market demands and even different goals, they may want different price levels. Or each member may cheat other manufacturers by slightly lowering the price, that is, win a larger market share than allocated to it, thus causing the disintegration of the cartel organization. Only the long-term threat of competitive prices can stop this deception, and if the profits of the cartel are large enough, this threat is effective. The second condition is the potential existence of monopoly power. Even if cartels can solve organizational problems, if they are faced with a highly flexible demand curve, there is little room for them to raise prices, so the benefits of forming cartels are very small.

Since the 1960s, the cyclical fluctuation of oil prices has become more obvious. From trough to trough, the world oil price has experienced eight periodic fluctuations. The cyclical fluctuation of world oil prices mainly has the following characteristics:

First, the rise in oil prices is often violent and often affected by sudden emergencies or crises. The duration of the oil price rise depends on the nature of the event.

Second, oil prices are mainly affected by demand in the short term, especially by the growth rate of the world economy. In recent years, with the sharp increase in demand for oil in Asian emerging market economies, the impact on international oil prices has also increased significantly.

Third, changes in the supply situation in the world oil market have a special impact on oil prices. Since the second oil crisis, although the influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on international oil prices has obviously weakened, its role cannot be underestimated, and the implementation of the supply restriction agreement reached among OPEC members still has an important impact on oil prices.

Fourth, market speculation is also an important factor affecting oil price fluctuations. International oil prices fluctuate frequently. On the one hand, traders need to engage in futures trading and hedging, but on the other hand, more and more institutional investors such as hedge funds are involved, which encourages the fluctuation of oil prices and has a great impact on the spot market. Speculation in the international oil market is more obvious when the international oil supply and demand situation is uncertain and the international capital market is not performing well. In addition, international oil prices are also affected by changes in oil inventories in major developed countries and some psychological expectations.

It can be seen that an important reason for the periodic fluctuation of oil prices is the monopolistic behavior of OPEC countries, which jointly control and limit production, resulting in short-term oil supply shortage and soaring oil prices. However, the actual oil reserves and production capacity have exceeded the demand.

(2) the factors to break the monopoly of supply and demand.

Therefore, when breaking this monopoly situation, we should combine the supply and demand factors with the above two conditions for cartel establishment.

First of all, from the demand side, countries should expand the sources of oil resources and reduce their dependence on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries; Increase the production of related alternative energy sources; Improve the technical level and strengthen the substitution of oil resources; Form a diversified energy system and form a stable relationship between supply and demand with relevant oil exporting countries; Strengthen reserve management and reduce the crisis caused by fluctuations.

Second, from the perspective of energy, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is engaged in non-renewable resources "oil". Before the emergence of new energy products superior to oil, the position of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will not be fundamentally shaken.

The main reason for the rise in global oil prices is the supply side. The reserve limitation of oil supply can be hedged by drilling technology, energy substitution and energy-saving technology. The crux lies in the monopoly of the global oil market. In order to maintain high oil prices, oil cartels deliberately limit production and invest at a low level. The real oil problem is the short-sighted behavior of the OPEC oil cartel, and it is difficult for oil importing countries to find a way to hedge. Effective global market and technological progress can continuously absorb new oil demand. The diversification of the oil supply market has weakened the monopoly power of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, but it is still enough to control the global oil price. In this regard, there is no other good way except multilateral negotiations.

From the supply side, the first is the degree of compliance with the agreement and the punishment system brought about by violation of the agreement; Different members have different costs, different market demands and even different goals, so they may want different price levels, which is the instability of monopoly itself; The country is influenced by its own political culture and other factors; If the profit level decreases, countries will inevitably take measures to reduce prices to obtain profits. Tel: 0 10-59796680

2. What are the sources, advantages and disadvantages of economic growth?

A: Economic growth refers to the long-term growth of real output (or real income) of an economy and society, that is, the increase of full employment output measured by constant price level. Usually measured by the increase of GNP (or GNP per capita), the increase of GNP describes the expansion of a country's overall production capacity, and the increase of GNP per capita indicates the improvement of material living standards. The theory of economic growth mainly studies the problems of developed countries.

The factors that lead to economic growth are the source of economic growth. It mainly includes the increase of production factors and the progress of technical level: production factors are composed of labor force and capital stock. Among them, the increase of labor includes not only the increase of quantity, but also the improvement of quality (the quality and age of workers, etc.) Technical progress includes inventing and applying new technologies to reduce production costs and increase production. Technological progress promotes economic growth by improving the efficiency of the use of production factors.

(1) the source of economic growth

On the source of economic growth, macroeconomics is usually studied by means of production function. Macro-production function links the output of an economy with the input of production factors and the technical situation. Let the macro production function be expressed as:

Among them,, and are the total output, labor input and capital input in turn, representing the technical situation in T period, and an equation describing the relationship between the growth rate of input factors, the growth rate of output and the growth rate of technological progress can be obtained, which is called the decomposition formula of growth rate, namely:

= + +

Among them is the growth rate of output; The growth rate of technological progress; And the growth rate of labor and capital. As parameters, they are the output elasticity of labor and capital respectively.

From the decomposition formula of growth rate, the increase of output can be explained by three forces (or factors), namely, labor, capital and technological progress. In other words, the source of economic growth can be attributed to the growth of labor and capital and technological progress.

The source of economic growth is the progress of capital, labor and technology.

First, capital.

The concept of capital is divided into material capital and human capital. Physical capital, also known as tangible capital, refers to the stock of equipment, factories and inventories. Human capital, also known as intangible capital, refers to the investment embodied in workers, such as their cultural and technical level and health status. Generally refers to material capital.

Second, the labor force.

Labor refers to the increase of labor force, which can be divided into the increase of labor force quantity and the improvement of labor force quality. These two aspects are very important for economic growth.

There are three sources for the increase of labor force, one is the increase of population, the other is the increase of employment rate among the population, and the third is the increase of working hours. The improvement of labor quality is the improvement of cultural and technical level and health level. Labor force is the unity of quantity and quality. A high-quality labor force can be equal to several low-quality laborers. The shortage of labor force can be made up by improving the quality.

Third, technological progress.

The effect of technological progress on economic growth is reflected in the improvement of productivity, that is, the same input of production factors can provide more products. Technological progress mainly includes the improvement of resource allocation, economies of scale and the progress of knowledge.

Sometimes, in order to emphasize the potential contribution of education and training to economic growth, human capital is written into the production function as a separate input.