For example, Britain has always been a coal exporter in the historical period when it grew into a world hegemonic country. The historical period when the United States grew into a hegemonic country is the "Gulf of Mexico era" in the world energy landscape. Although the United States is no longer the world's major oil exporter today, it maintains strong control over the world's oil resources.
First of all, the "unshakable agreement" reached with Saudi Arabia in1970s established the US dollar as the only pricing currency for oil. It has become a world knowledge that the US dollar is about equal to oil. Any country that wants to trade oil has to use the US dollar as a reserve. At present, a basket of seven crude oils regulated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with average price is denominated in US dollars, covering almost the most important oil spot trading market in the world.
Second, the international oil exchanges in the New York Mercantile Exchange and London, the world's top two oil futures markets, use US dollars as the unit of pricing and settlement. Thereby ensuring the international pricing power of the United States for oil commodities. In recent years, although the dollar has been falling, Iran has switched to the euro, and Russia has set up an oil exchange denominated in rubles, but it is insignificant in the global oil trade. It was with the help of the strong control over the oil exports of allies and even the oil sources in the Middle East during World War II and the pricing power of the international oil futures market that the US dollar was able to continue to monopolize the trading medium position of bulk oil trade, thus consolidating the US dollar standard system of the international monetary structure under the Jamaican system.
The rise of "coal-pound" and "oil-dollar" shows a simple and clear way for the evolution of the status of key currencies. If a country's currency wants to become an international currency or even a key currency, it is often necessary to start with pricing and settlement currencies. Following this law, it is not difficult to find that in the future when low-carbon economy becomes the target mode of economic growth in all countries, the rise of new energy will surpass the old mode dominated by single energy in the past and be replaced by a series of new energy combinations and new energy utilization modes characterized by low carbon. New energy transaction-carbon credit transaction is the core of connecting new energy combination and new energy utilization mode. We might as well boldly assume that in the future evolution of the monetary pattern, the degree of binding with carbon trading targets will become an important condition for national currencies or regional currencies to stand out as national currencies or even key currencies, and the starting point of binding is still the right to bid, which will be called the hegemony of "carbon trading targets-key currencies".
After the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, the global carbon trading market experienced explosive growth. In 2007, the carbon trading volume jumped from 65.438+0.6 billion tons in 2006 to 2.7 billion tons, an increase of 68.75%. The growth of turnover is faster. In 2007, the global carbon trading market value reached 40 billion euros, an increase of 865,438+0.8% compared with 22 billion euros in 2006. In the first half of 2008, the total value of the global carbon trading market was even the same as that of the whole year of 2007. According to the forecast of Carbon Point Company, the trading volume of carbon dioxide will reach 4.2 billion tons in 2008, an increase of 56% over 2007. If the carbon trading price is 15 Euro/ton, the trading volume is equivalent to 63 billion Euro.
After several years of development, the carbon trading market has gradually matured, the geographical scope of participating countries has been expanding, the market structure has deepened to multiple levels, and the financial complexity is not the same. Even in the case of the global economic recession and financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the global carbon trading market has maintained a strong growth trend. 2008 is the first year of the first phase of Kyoto Protocol (2008-20 12). Annex 1 countries began to fulfill their emission reduction commitments, which coincides with the EU's second phase emission plan. The next five years will be the beginning of the truly vigorous development of the global carbon trading market. According to the prediction of the United Nations and the World Bank, the global carbon trading market will reach $60 billion per year in 2008-20 12, and the global carbon trading market will reach $150 billion in 20 12, which is expected to surpass the oil market and become the largest market in the world with bright prospects. If we look further, the international carbon trading system after 20 12 is also worth looking forward to. At the Bali Summit of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the end of 2007, all UNFCCC members, including the United States, agreed to start negotiations on the post-Kyoto agreement, with the goal of signing the agreement at the Copenhagen conference in 2009. Although there is uncertainty about whether an agreement can be reached in the end, the potential positive factors greatly stimulate the possibility of establishing a global unified carbon trading market. When low-carbon emissions become the boundary agreement of global economic growth, the connotation value of carbon credit line is increasingly prominent, and carbon trading has become the largest commodity in the world. The binding force of the mark currency of carbon trading target and its derived monetary function will have an impact on breaking the unilateral dollar hegemony and promoting the diversification of the international monetary pattern.
If the WTO has established a world trade system for tangible goods, then the Kyoto Protocol has established a global trade system for intangible products with carbon credit as the goal. As an intangible commodity with intrinsic value based on international rules, the pricing and settlement currency selection of carbon credit transactions are also applicable to the classical theory and general law of pricing and settlement currency selection in tangible goods trade.
There are many suppliers in the carbon trading market, including developed countries, transition countries and developing countries. Unlike the high dependence on the oil supply of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, it is difficult to agree on a single currency. Objectively, it is possible to diversify the currency of carbon trading.
At present, the euro is the main pricing and settlement currency for carbon spot and carbon derivatives on-site transactions. Since the UK has always been the most determined implementer of carbon emission reduction, although the UK Emissions Trading System (UK ETS) has been merged into the EU ETS, London's position as a global carbon trading center has been established, and the space for the pound as a carbon trading pricing and settlement currency has been maintained. Japan Carbon Exchange will be denominated in Japanese yen. Because the Japanese yen has occupied a certain position in the world currency, with the development of carbon trading system and Japan's absolute leading export space of carbon emission reduction technology, the Japanese yen will become the third currency for carbon trading pricing and settlement. Although Australia has not yet joined the Kyoto Protocol, GGAS New South Wales' greenhouse gas emission reduction system is one of the earliest mandatory emission reduction systems in the world. Australia's greenhouse gas emissions trading system will be officially implemented in 20 10, and will be denominated in Australian dollars. As a continuation of GGAS, the Australian dollar will still occupy a certain proportion in the global carbon trading settlement currency.
In addition, some emerging environmental exchanges have emerged around the world. In July 2006, the Montreal Climate Exchange in Canada was established. Singapore Exchange was established in early July 2008, and plans to launch CER trading. HKEx is considering launching CER futures trading in mid-2009. Since 2008, China has established three environmental exchanges, namely Shanghai Environmental Energy Exchange, Beijing Environmental Exchange and Tianjin Emissions Exchange. However, at present, the three exchanges are only limited to the transfer of energy-saving and environmental protection technologies, and there is still a long way to go before the launch of carbon dioxide emission trading. South Korea and the United Arab Emirates also have this motion. In addition, there is the Brazilian Commodity Futures Exchange (BM & amp； Singapore Asian Carbon Exchange (ACX). The carbon exchanges in these emerging markets will all be denominated in local currencies, and the competition is fierce.
The rise of carbon trading and the huge market prospect of low-carbon energy related to it will be an excellent opportunity to boost the pattern of currency diversification. At present, it seems that the euro is ahead and the dollar is slightly inferior in the settlement currency of carbon trading. According to our calculation, there were 58 global carbon funds in 2007, with a capital scale of 7 billion euros (9.5 billion US dollars). It is estimated that it will increase to 67 in 2008, with a capital scale of 9.4 billion euros (654.38+03.8 billion US dollars). Among the 58 carbon funds in 2007, 93.3% of the funds from government investors (including government agencies, development banks and the private sector) were euros; 84.7% of the funds of mixed buyers (including the World Bank, other development banks, private sector and government agencies) are euros. 60. 19% of private investors (including the private sector, development banks and public * * */private partnerships) have funds in euros. The rest are dollars and few Swiss francs and pounds. It can be seen that the demand for international carbon transactions to be settled in euros has been increasing in recent years. In addition, the yen will gradually develop with the development of the domestic trading system. Both the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar have room for growth. With the increase of countries' participation in the carbon trading market, more and more countries will take the carbon trading express train to enhance the status of their currencies in the international monetary system and accelerate to become the leading international currency in the world. If we don't catch up, China and other developing countries will probably miss this historic opportunity by losing the right to bid.