Fundamentals is a method of analysis from the perspective of the impact of the actual supply and demand of commodities on commodity prices. This analysis method focuses on studying the implementation of the country's relevant political, economic, and financial policies, laws, and regulations, as well as the direct or indirect impact of commodity production, consumption, import and export volume, inventory and other factors on the supply and demand of commodities.

The fluctuation of commodity prices is mainly affected by basic factors such as market supply and demand, that is, any economic factors that reduce supply or increase consumption will lead to changes in price increases; conversely, any increase in supply or reduction of commodities will Consumption factors will lead to increased inventories and falling prices. However, with the development of modern economy, some non-supply and demand factors also play an increasing role in changes in futures prices, which makes the futures market more complex and unpredictable. The basic factors affecting price changes can be summarized in the following eight aspects:

(1) Supply and demand relationship. Futures trading is a product of the market economy and developed on the basis of commodity spot trading. The futures price of a commodity is an expected reflection of the supply and demand relationship of the commodity. Therefore, changes in commodity futures prices are affected by the market supply and demand relationship of the commodity. When the supply of a commodity exceeds demand, its corresponding futures price falls; on the contrary, the futures price rises. Therefore, attention should be paid to the carryover inventory, output, production reports, climate, economic conditions, other supply and demand conditions of substitutes, global competitive factors, etc. of the relevant commodities being traded.

(2) Economic cycle. In the futures market, price changes are also affected by the economic cycle. At each stage of the economic cycle, there will be fluctuations in price increases and decreases.

(3) Seasonal factors. Many futures commodities, especially agricultural products, have obvious seasonality, and prices fluctuate with seasonal changes.

(4) Financial market changes. In the process of world economic development, fluctuations in inflation, currency exchange rates, and interest rates in various countries have become common phenomena in economic life, which have an increasingly obvious impact on futures markets and commodity futures.

(5) Government policy. Certain policies and measures formulated by governments of various countries will have varying degrees of impact on futures market prices.

(6) Political factors. The futures market is very sensitive to changes in the political climate, and the occurrence of various political events often affects prices to varying degrees.

(7) Social factors. Social factors refer to public perceptions, social psychological trends, and the information influence of communication media.

(8) Psychological factors. The so-called psychological factor refers to the degree of confidence of traders in the market, commonly known as "popularity". For example, when you are optimistic about a certain commodity, the price of the commodity will rise even if there are no obvious positive factors; and when you are negative, even if there is no obvious negative news, the price will fall. Another example is that some market leaders and bookmakers often take advantage of people's psychological factors to spread certain news and artificially carry out speculative large-scale buying or selling in order to seek speculative profits.