Judging from the minutes of the Fed's meeting on interest rates in June, 5438+ 10, the Fed officials at that time changed the dovish tendency of the Fed to raise interest rates in the past, revealing the strongest signal that they would raise interest rates again as soon as March, and pointed out that they would raise interest rates again "soon". In addition, since the last meeting, many Fed officials have become more hawkish about raising interest rates in March. This reflects the increasing probability that the Fed will raise interest rates in March. Moreover, when Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen gave a speech in the US Congress, she even stressed that raising interest rates late again is not good for the economy, which is a signal that the Fed is about to raise interest rates.

However, despite this, the market still believes that there is little chance for the Fed to raise interest rates in March. At that time, the data of Chicago federal funds interest rate futures showed that the probability of market investors expecting the Fed to raise interest rates in March was only 18%, and the probability of raising interest rates in May was expected to exceed 50%, and the probability of raising interest rates in June reached 70%. In other words, at that time, market investors basically thought that the earliest possible time for the Fed to raise interest rates this year was June.

However, in the past two days, the expectation of the US interest rate futures market for the Fed to raise interest rates has been fully warmed up. The probability of raising interest rates in March rose to 40% last Friday, about 30% before Bjellen's speech in Congress, an increase of 65,438+00 percentage points. However, entering this week, with US President Trump about to announce the implementation of the tax reform plan, the market seems to be increasingly convinced that the Fed will take corresponding actions, and the probability of raising interest rates in March has risen to 50% for two consecutive days. This just meets one of the conditions that the Fed needs to raise interest rates at present, and the market is psychologically prepared to raise interest rates.