Analysts said that the future trend of soybean prices is not optimistic, and soybean growers are advised not to store soybeans in large quantities.
Following the price drop1October last year 165438+, domestic soybean oil ushered in a new trend. Up to now, the purchase price of northeast soybean has risen to 4720 yuan/ton, but in the case of high price, the transaction is not good and the market is valuable.
Analysts said that the future trend of soybean prices is not optimistic, and soybean growers are advised not to store soybeans in large quantities.
Following the price drop of 165438+ 10 last June, domestic soybean oil ushered in a new wave of price reduction.
As of May 14 and 10, the year-on-year decrease was 1 1.0%, the lowest level since May 20 10 and 165438.
With the continuous increase of soybean imports, what is the future trend of domestic soybean market? For farmers, how can farmers who have just planted soybeans ensure their income?
Voice of China's Agriculture and Rural China reported that the May Day holiday has passed, but the demand in the domestic soybean oil market has not changed much, but it is getting lighter and lighter.
Port first-grade soybean oil fell to the lowest price in nearly four years.
Zhao Xue, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang soybean oil market, said: "At present, the average spot price of domestic first-class soybean oil is 6760 yuan/ton, which is 2.55% lower than 6937 yuan/ton before the May Day holiday.
Among them, the price of first-class soybean oil in North China is 6720 yuan/ton, that in East China is 6930 yuan/ton and that in South China is 6850 yuan/ton.
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According to the monitoring data, in 20 13 years, the global consumption of soybeans was 269.4 million tons, including 63.37 million tons of soybeans imported from China and 75.57 million tons of domestic soybeans12.2 million tons, accounting for 28.05% of the total global soybean consumption.
Wu Yuanjin, a senior researcher of China International Futures Agricultural Products, admitted that the continuous increase in soybean imports and the decline in prices directly led to the decline in the domestic soybean oil market price.
Wu Yuanjin: "The reason for the decline is mainly the impact of international prices. This week, CBOT soybean oil futures fell under pressure due to sufficient oil supply and weak demand from end users.
In May, the domestic soybean crushing capacity will remain high, and the operating rate of enterprises will be high.
The import cost decreased slightly. On May 9, 20 14, the cost of imported crude soybean oil continued to fall, and the spot price of oil fell in tandem, which also constituted a certain upward resistance to the oil futures market.
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Wu Yuanjin predicted that the domestic soybean oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly in the case of high-yield soybeans listed in South America, rising domestic soybean imports and light consumption.
Wu Yuanjin: "The main factor affecting the oil market trend in the short term is the weather. We need to pay attention to weather factors such as El Nino and soybean sowing speculation in North America.
Under the background of abundant international oil supply, it is expected that the domestic and foreign oil markets will continue to maintain a weak and volatile situation in the short term.
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The price of soybean oil continues to fall, while the domestic soybean market is still hovering at a low price.
According to the data provided by Zhuo Chuang Information, the domestic soybean market as a whole has maintained a weak and sluggish operation since the soybean was listed at the end of September 2003 from 2065438.
Zhang, Soybean Market Analyst of Zhuo Chuang Information:
Zhang: "As of mid-February, the purchase price of Heilongjiang soybeans fluctuated from 4,600 yuan/ton at the beginning of listing to 4,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.6%.
Later, due to the shortage of soybeans in Northeast China, traders' quotations gradually rose. Up to now, the purchase price of soybeans in Northeast China has risen to 4720 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.4%. But in the case of high price, the transaction is not good and the market is valuable.
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At present, the effect of excessive domestic soybean imports continues.
It is reported that the auction of the State Reserve will start in the near future, and the country will sell 3 million tons of soybeans, with a starting price of 3,800 yuan/ton.
Since purchasing and storage in 2008, the current national reserve soybean inventory balance is 6.595 million tons.
This dumping will throw away nearly half of the national reserve stocks.
Zhang, a soybean market analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that due to the long storage time, the quality of auctioned soybeans has declined, and most of the dumped soybeans are used to crush oil dregs, and the soybean oil inventory will increase significantly in the later period.
Therefore, the national reserve auction will not bring too much fluctuation to the domestic soybean market.
What is the future trend of domestic soybean prices? Zhang said that the retail terminal soybean oil price may fall again due to the continued sluggish demand and excessive soybean imports.
Soybean growers are advised not to store large quantities of soybeans.
Zhang: "The demand of domestic soybean end users is not strong, and the shipment is not fast. On Tuesday, 300,000 tons of soybeans were auctioned in Northeast China, which had no obvious impact on the market for the time being. Market participants are watching.
As the temperature rises gradually, and summer is the off-season of demand for bean products, it is suggested that farmers should not store large quantities of soybeans and make use of the current high price as soon as possible.
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