In 2005, a book called "One Dream in Ten Years-Confessions of a Trader" attracted the attention of people in the industry. This is not a book about the winning experience of successful people, but more about the experience of a trader going back and forth between heaven and hell, sharing the charm and hardship, joy and pain, success and failure of futures trading with investors.
It is such a book that has never been told, which has aroused the deep feeling of millions of readers. It is known as China's Memoirs of a Stock God, and almost all investors who have engaged in futures trading can find their own shadow in this book. In July, Cai Shang reporter of China Business News interviewed Qingze, the author of this book and the chairman of Shanghai Qingze Investment Management Co., Ltd. in Shanghai.
Kizawa 1985 was admitted to Northern Jiaotong University, and 1992 received a master's degree in philosophy from Beijing Normal University. After graduation, he gave up the opportunity to teach in a university in Beijing and chose the road of investment.
At the beginning of 1993, Kizawa became a professional trader in a state-owned enterprise and entered the stock market. Since 1994, he has been involved in treasury bond futures trading and is the earliest futures investor in China. Like many investors, when they first entered the market, they were high-spirited and ambitious and regarded the market as a place where they could easily make money.
During the three years from 1993 to 1995, Kizawa thought that his understanding of the market was relatively simple and his grasp of the transaction was relatively simple. He doesn't know much, but inadvertently conforms to the basic principles of market investment, and the transaction result is acceptable. It was the inexplicable success of the first battle that laid the foundation for the subsequent transaction failure.
After experiencing the "joy of victory" in the first three years, Qingze began to fully intervene in the commodity futures market.
He recalled that "ignorance and fearlessness" was the truest portrayal of those years. Once I made some money and mistakenly thought that I had mastered the rules of the futures market and the essentials of futures trading, so I began to get arrogant, just like a driver who has been driving for more than two years, thinking that he knows everything, and the threat of traffic accidents followed. From 1995 to 1999, Qingze's trading results fluctuated greatly, and he really realized the suffering of "wandering alone in heaven and hell".
Since 1999, the domestic commodity futures market has entered a stage of rectification, and transactions have gradually become deserted. After years of ups and downs, Kizawa began to reflect on himself: What is futures trading, and is there a successful way of speculation?
This is a difficult question to answer. Many professional investors have failed to sum up an absolute speculative road to success all their lives. Qingze once again felt awe of the market, sorted out his investment experience from 65438 to 0993 and carefully summarized it. Finally, in 2005, he fulfilled his dream of a decade.
In 2005, with the opening of the super bull market cycle of commodities, the futures market ushered in spring. With more than ten years' experience and lessons, Qingze's futures trading has entered a new stage-through a systematic study of its trading history, personality characteristics and market trading rules, a relatively complete trading idea and system has been gradually established.
Qingze attaches great importance to the construction of trading system, especially the integrity and consistency of trading logic. He believes that the failure of trading largely comes from the confusion of trading logic and the imprecision of trading system, and the fundamental reason is the trader's mind and personality.
In recent two years, China futures market has entered a real period of great development. With the gradual maturity of traders and the gradual rise of institutional investors, the market characteristics of futures market are also changing obviously. In the past two years, Qingze's investment mentality has gradually turned to peace, and his investment ideas have been constantly improved. From a futures trader who pursues high risks and high returns, he has gradually changed into a prudent and rational futures asset management expert.
Turn small money into big money.
Cai Shang: Many people list your book as one of the required reading materials for introducing futures. Do you have anything to say to investors who have just entered this market?
Kizawa: There are three words from Mr. nan huaijin that inspired me. He said that people should not make three kinds of mistakes: poor virtue and respect for status; See the big from the small; Strength is small and heavy. Looking back on my investment experience, I found that I encountered such a situation when I first entered the Tao.
After working as a trader in a state-owned enterprise in 1993, I went to Shanghai with the enterprise's 5 million funds in 1994. At that time, Shanghai Pudong was still a construction site, and Yangpu Bridge had just been built. The Shanghai Composite Index was around 400 points at that time. After I bought the stock, it fell to more than 320 points, and at most it was more than 20%. Although it rose again later, the investment at that time was immature.
Now, the financial market is a very competitive market, which requires very high investors. At that time, the domestic market was still in a relatively closed stage, and it was accidentally pushed to the forefront of the market. As a matter of fact, I was not qualified for that position at that time. This is irresponsible to oneself and the enterprise.
Therefore, for beginners, I suggest not to make a lot of money from the beginning, and pay a lot of unnecessary costs from "big money" to "small money", but to start with small funds, gradually accumulate experience, carefully summarize the trading history, and then build a trading system that suits you. After all aspects are relatively mature, we will consider expanding the scale of the fund according to conditions.
The root of failure lies in oneself.
Cai Shang: You mentioned that the competition in the trading field of traders is the key to winning or losing. Many investors believe that the key to the success or failure of trading lies in whether the market can be done correctly, so market research and trading technology are the key. What do you think of this?
Keizawa: This is a very complicated problem. Financial speculation is a fascinating game. In the history of stock and futures trading, many scientists and gamblers have been trying to create and invent various theoretical tools and technologies, hoping to explore the movement law of financial markets and find a successful investment path, thus producing various market trading methods or schools.
The fact is that less than 5% people in the futures market are making long-term profits. Why is this? In my opinion, the market price movement is a nonlinear and uncertain process, and it is difficult to capture and grasp the hidden regularity and inevitability. The scientific way of thinking is to regard the market as a purely objective research object, thinking that the market can be predicted and defeated through the statistics of market historical data, which is a misunderstanding.
By trading realm, I mean that speculators, after understanding the limitations of technology, have their own investment ideas and ideological systems, and give up their perfect, orderly and calm mentality in the trading world by constructing relatively reasonable trading strategies and risk management methods.
Cai Shang: What do you think are the problems of traders themselves?
Kizawa: Traders' own problems are often the root of most traders' failures. My book is actually about the problems of traders, including myself. The ancients in China said: Forty without confusion. Kant said: 40 years old is the beginning of a new life. Since then, people have a real character.
All these words mean that people are easily dominated by instinct and desire when they are young. And futures trading is exactly anti-human. Many traders can't resist the temptation of the market and their inner greed, trying to catch every price fluctuation. It seems smart, but it's actually stupid. There are also many traders who lost their money in an accident because of greed and wishful thinking. There are still many traders who are lucky enough to stop losses when they are quilted, and eventually they are defeated.
In addition, there is a common problem: arrogance and pride caused by making money. Making money can make people emotional and distort their views on reality. The more you earn, the better you feel about yourself, and you are easily controlled by arrogance. If this problem is not solved well, it is easy for people who have achieved great success before to go bankrupt.
Cai Shang: So, what do you think a good trader should have?
Kizawa: A friend of mine said that futures investment is more about art than technology. It is not so much gambling as fighting; It's not so much a dish as a person. Each one embodies the color of human nature and the dignity of personality. I think an excellent trader should have common sense, patience, courage and tenacity. Normal mind means that futures and money are just a part of life, and futures trading is just a game that needs to be relaxed. Patience refers to the patience of waiting for trading opportunities and positions. Courage refers to the courage to enter the market and hold positions. Perseverance refers to perseverance and self-confidence after repeated defeats and wars.
Gradually adapt to the market
Cai Shang: What is the most important issue for an investor who can survive in the futures market for a long time?
Kizawa: Indeed, futures investment belongs to the game of pursuing market rules. The difference between market law and natural law is that natural law can be repeated, and social law and market law will disappear once they are discovered. This is the difficulty of futures trading. I think the most important thing for an investor to survive in the futures market for a long time is to handle the relationship between himself and the market. Optimists believe that the market can be defeated and manipulated; Pessimists believe that the market is invincible.
The correct relationship should be: investors actively adapt to the market and constantly improve their life realm to adapt to complex and dynamic market changes. This is implemented in the trading concept, which is to actively adapt to the development and changes of market trends. The ancient wisdom of China expressed this very well: "The general trend of the world is beyond human power." . Mencius also said: although wise, it is better to guide the situation. Judging from my investment experience in the past 20 years, I have also experienced such a process of gradually knowing myself and gradually adapting to the market.
Cai Shang: You talked about adapting to the market many times. Can you explain it to investors more deeply?
Kiyozawa: It is a very real idea to conform to the market if it is implemented in trading operations. It can be compared with the 30-year battle of wits between the two parties. At the beginning, we were in a state of "the enemy was strong and we were weak" and adopted guerrilla warfare. The operation of "the enemy bothers me, the enemy is tired and I fight, the enemy advances and I retreat, and the enemy retreats and I chase" belongs to flexible short-term trading. Then he made the mistake of "Left" adventurism, lost his reason and misjudged the relationship between the enemy and ourselves, which led to the failure of the anti-encirclement campaign. This is a contrarian heavy trading. Then I started the Long March, went through hardships and was forced to save my strength. This belongs to active risk control. Later, Yan 'an base area was established: rest, recharge, reflection and summary. This is a light warehouse transaction. Finally, it enters the strategic offensive stage: the conditions are ripe, the strategic preparation is sufficient, and the trend is obvious. This is a homeopathic operation.
In the speculative market, even if some people make money in a short time, their inner world is fragile, their eyes are confused and they lack confidence in the future. However, even if some people don't do well in stages, they have clear thinking, clear goals, low-key speech, calm eyes, calm heart and full of confidence in the future. Different horizons and realms determine everyone's different future life.