Dear investors:
Hello!
2007 has passed, and time flies.
For pure-hearted investors, this year has been a difficult year. Compared with any relevant index, we are far behind. Here, we are deeply sorry.
Hong Kong's weighted rate of return this year is about 13%, which is 38.06% higher than the Hang Seng Index and 54.32% higher than the State-owned Enterprises Index. The cumulative increase in Hong Kong in recent five years is about 541%;
The annual weighted yield of SZITIC China Collective Fund Trust is about 48%, up 96.7% year-on-year. The cumulative increase in recent four years is about 371%;
The annual weighted return rate of SZITIC investment concept collective fund trust is 47.37%;
The cumulative weighted rate of return of the second-phase collective fund trust of SZITIC (China) is about 22.12%;
The cumulative weighted rate of return of Ping An Chunxin China Growth Phase I Collective Fund Trust is 49.25%;
The cumulative weighted rate of return of Ping An Chunxin China Growth Phase II Collective Fund Trust is 24.54%.
the year of 2008
Zhao Danyang, the godfather of private placement, published a letter to investors on Chunxin.com 20 10. At the beginning of each year, Zhao Danyang publishes a letter to investors on the website of "A Child's Heart", which generally contains his summary of the past year and his views on the market in the new year. However, this year, this email will no longer be released to the public, and only customers who have purchased private trust products with pure heart can see it. The following is the full text of Zhao Danyang's letter to investors. Dear investors:
Hello!
The year 2009 passed with hope and unexpected development. The trust plan management team prepared by this trust company wishes all investors a happy New Year! Good health! All the best!
In 2008, our return on investment was 4%. In 2009, the principal of our trust fund was 65,438+0.565,438+0, and the management account of the company increased by over 65,438+000%. During the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 50%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 50%. Overcoming the general trend makes us full of confidence in the investment philosophy we have always adhered to. Of course, compared with the outstanding private equity fund managers who are fund managers in the market, our investment and research team still needs to continue to learn and work hard. Back in the stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from the highest point of 6 124 in 2007 to the lowest point of 1664, down 72%. At the beginning of 2009, we asserted that this would be a year of substantial recovery, and this view was confirmed by the market. Historically, it is rare for the mainstream market to have such a huge shock within two years. As far as today's market is concerned, the stock market has returned to rationality, and the future trend of the stock market will depend on the expectation of future economy and the rational return of the value of listed companies. We will see the reconstruction of the value investment system and the spirit of in-depth market research. 20 10 will be a period when countries raise interest rates slowly and pay attention to controlling high global inflation, and the global economy will enter a period of high growth brought about by high inflation; Especially after entering the 2 1 century, the demand for clean energy and environmental protection will change the economic growth mode in the past few decades, and we expect this inevitable change to bring about the evolution of the leading trend in the field of securities investment.
In 2000, the American economy reached its peak, and the bursting of the Internet bubble plunged the United States into recession. In order to save the American economy, Greenspan cut interest rates sharply again after 0 1 and 9. 1, which made the American interest rate fall to the lowest point in 45 years in 2003 and lingered at 1% for a year and a half, which caused the real estate bubble in the United States and planted the seeds of the subprime mortgage crisis. The real problem in the United States today is that a large number of manufacturing and service industries have moved to China and India in the past 20 years. After the internet and communication bubbles, the innovation in the United States has not kept up, and no large emerging industries have been formed for the time being. However, real estate and finance can only prosper temporarily at low interest rates and cannot support the whole country as a leading industry for a long time. Nowadays, most of the balance sheets of the US government and households are over-indebted, which requires "deleveraging" to reduce the debt ratio; More importantly, the hollowing out of the industry has destroyed the regular profits and losses of enterprises and families. If the financial turmoil is a revision of the balance sheet, then the consumption recession is a revision of the income statement of enterprises and families. Unless the United States forms a new large-scale industry in a short time, this modification will be a long process. In retrospect, Greenspan was just unlucky. If the innovation of the United States had not kept up in recent years, the world would have been another evolution.
200 1 After China's accession to the WTO, the productivity has been greatly released, and the popularization of Internet communication technology has benefited China greatly in undertaking the global manufacturing transfer. Due to the quasi-linked form of RMB and USD [1], when the export industry accounts for a higher and higher proportion of GDP, according to the "Mundell Triangle" theory [2], the operation of China banks becomes more and more difficult.
After 2005, the expectation of RMB appreciation has gradually become a global knowledge. With Japanese history as a lesson, coupled with the low interest rate and depreciation pressure of the US dollar, global capital wants to enter China and share the growth of China. With the rapid growth of exports, more performance is the skyrocketing foreign exchange reserves. After so much money entered China, the main outlets were real estate and stock market, which formed a perfect bubble in China. If the above reasons bring about an increase in the amount of money, then the national self-confidence and pride brought by the Olympic Games will bring about the formation of a currency multiplier, and the result of multiplying the two is human madness. History is always strikingly similar. The pain of China today is a compulsory course in the process of moving towards a market economy, just as most Hong Kong people will no longer overdraw their houses and stocks after 1997. As the former governor of the Bank of Japan said, it is difficult to completely avoid the Japanese economic bubble of 1985- 1989 even if it is reinterpreted. Compared with the United States, China's fundamentals are much better. First of all, the debt ratio between the government and households is not high, especially the household part. The high savings rate makes a lot of cash on the balance sheet, and when winter comes, there will be cash for the winter. More importantly, China is still the most competitive manufacturing region in the world, which means that China's future income statement is still the strongest.
Back to A shares and H shares, last year we thought that China stock market would form an important bottom in 2009. 20 10 this year, our task today is to find the enterprises that China can represent China in global competition in the next ten to twenty years in the process of economic restructuring. The essence of investment is to allocate capital. We allocate capital to the most competitive and efficient enterprises, thus promoting social development. Nature's spring, summer, autumn and winter go hand in hand. Every severe winter will eliminate those unhealthy and unfit species, and more vigorous new seedlings will be born around every fallen tree-natural selection is the eternal driving force to promote natural and social progress. Who are the future Wal-Mart, Toyota, Microsoft and Procter & Gamble in China ... Peter Lynch has found many ten-fold income earners in his life, who will be the company that we can earn ten times in the future? Everyone will have several important opportunities and challenges in his life. How to deal with and face these important turning points will have a decisive impact on his life. Let's share Sir John Templeton's investment experience. Bull market was born because of pessimism, grew up because of doubt, matured because of optimism, and died because of excitement and ecstasy. When extreme pessimism pervades, it is the best time to buy; When you are extremely optimistic, it is the best time to sell. When the market is extremely depressed, don't waste time worrying about shrinking positions or increasing losses. Don't defend like everyone else in the market. Instead, you should attack and look for value stocks that have been shot by arrows. Rationality tells us that today's market is different from 2006 and 2007, and it will not appear in 2008 and 2009. It will never be completed in the form of general ups and downs. The development of the market will lead the macroeconomic data, the development of the industry will lead the Shenzhen-Shanghai index, and the company's share price will reflect the above two aspects in advance. In the space of 2400 to 4000 points, some stocks will continue to rise and some stocks will continue to fall. Since everyone has affirmed the certainty of the development of concepts such as clean energy, environmental protection, medicine, infrastructure, railway and electromechanical equipment, and consumption upgrading, coupled with the madness of the financial industry in the era of high interest rate spread, our company's research only needs to keep up with this rhythm. Finding the best company in the industry as the investment object, grasping the turning point of the company from quantitative change to qualitative change, and giving full play to the advantages of company research in a stable market are the investment methods we should be good at.
In 2009
One year after bidding farewell to A shares, Zhao Danyang published a letter to investors on the website of Heart of a Child on June 65438+1October 65438+June 2009.
Unlike a year ago, in this letter, Zhao Danyang showed unprecedented confidence in the China stock market. He believes that it is rare to see a huge decline in the A-share market this year, but the stock market bubble has basically been washed away.
Dear investors:
Hello!
Too many things happened in China in 2008, which has finally passed, and 2009 will be a hopeful year. Here, I wish all investors a happy new year! Good health! All the best!
In 2008, the return on investment of funds in Hong Kong was-18.84%, the Hang Seng Index fell by 48.3%, and the index of state-owned enterprises fell by 5 1%. In terms of absolute return, we apologize.
Back in the stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from the highest point of 6 124 in 2007 to the lowest point 1664, with a decrease of 72.83%, and the State-owned Enterprise Index fell from the highest point of 20609 in 2007 to the lowest point of 4792, with a decrease of 76.75%. Historically, it is rare for the mainstream market to see such a huge decline in more than a year. As far as today's market is concerned, the stock market bubble has been basically washed away, and the future trend of the stock market will depend on the expectation of the future economy.
At present, when Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker raised the interest rate to 20% on 1980, the global hyperinflation was finally put back into the magic bottle, and the global economy entered a period of low inflation and high growth for more than 20 years, especially after entering the 1990s, the Internet greatly improved the labor productivity of the global human society, allowing more people all over the world to share the growth of the global economy. The United States, Europe, Japan, China, Russia and India are no longer divided economies, and they interact with each other, so the global economy has entered an era of integration.
20 12
Dear investors:
Hello!
20 1 1 year has passed, and it is a new beginning of the year. I wish you all good health and good luck in the new year.
The poor performance of Chunxin 20 1 1 is the biggest book loss since the establishment of the fund. Pure heart value investment funds fell by 28.67%, and pure heart natural selection funds fell by 24.79%. We are deeply sorry for such a performance.
Who will be the center of the stage of human society in the next twenty years? Throughout the history of human society, it is the history of the rise and fall of different countries and nationalities in different periods. /kloc-Portugal in the 0/5th century,/kloc-Spain in the 0/6th century,/kloc-Holland in the 0/7th century,/kloc-Britain in the 0/8th century, and whose world is America in the 20th and 2nd centuries? We believe that the recession in Europe and Japan is inevitable. In the coming decades, China and India will be the most wonderful countries in the world. The United States will also perform well, but only in innovative industries. In the future, the naive heart will firmly grasp China and India, two large emerging economies, and look for the most monopolistic and high-growth offensive enterprises to share the rapid growth of China and India in the future.
There is an old saying in China that men are afraid of getting into the wrong business and women are afraid of marrying the wrong husband. I chatted with some IT friends in Taiwan Province Province the other day. He is an executive of a large IT company in Taiwan Province Province. He said with emotion: After a lifetime of hard work, it is better to sell instant noodles (Master Kong). He is the best graduate of National Taiwan University and has entered the most promising IT industry. However, decades have passed, the industry has been updated too quickly and changed too much, and the options offered have become a piece of waste paper. After choosing the right country, the choice of industry and industry is extremely important.
A pure heart has done a lot of addition in the past five years. We try to make macro prediction, research and investment on crude oil, gold, foreign exchange and other commodities. In terms of equity investment, we have invested in the stock markets of China, the United States, Canadian, Indian and Vietnamese. However, with the increase of experience and lessons, subtraction began from 20 1 1, mainly in China and India. In the investment industry, we will focus on consumption, medical care, education and finance, and we will be less involved in commodity industries-crude oil, gold, mining and manufacturing. We only do equity investment and share the growth of the country and industry by holding the equity of the company. We will also learn less about financial derivatives such as futures and foreign exchange. In the future, the innocent heart will become simpler and simpler. With the accumulation of experience, we find that what we know is really limited and the world is wonderful. You can only stay in industries and companies that you know and understand.
20 1 1, our losses mainly come from the exchange rate, and Indian Rupee fell by 16% last year. Secondly, part of the loss comes from corporate governance. The Indian enterprises we have invested in are all very good, with strong monopoly and excellent cash flow. However, with the deepening of our understanding of India, we find that corporate governance is a big problem in investing in India. For example, a liquor company occupies 54% of the Indian high-end liquor market, which is equivalent to Maotai+Wuliangye in China. However, the big shareholders are too ambitious and have done too many industries, and Indian laws and regulations do not protect investors enough. Major shareholders can legally misappropriate the cash of listed companies. In other words, the company's main business is very profitable, but other shareholders can't restrict the major shareholders from misappropriating cash. Recently, we gradually sold the company with poor governance structure. A good main business combined with a good governance structure is a company worth investing in, which is the biggest lesson we have learned from investing in India for two years.
China stock market reached a high point in June 2007. After the rebound in 2009, I walked slowly all the way. In 2007, the stock market bubble was too heavy, and now it is actually a process of defoaming.
In the next decade, China's economy will enter a transitional period, some industries have passed the period of rapid development, the turning point of demographic dividend has quietly appeared, and the era of easy money making has passed. At present, China's per capita GDP is only US$ 4,260, and there is still much room for growth compared with the United States. In the future, China will have new heroes in some emerging industries in its own country. With the decline of the stock market and the release of the bubble, our attention gradually returned to China and we found some companies to invest in. After selling Indian companies with poor governance structure, we gradually acquired these China companies.
At first glance, the child's heart has a history of 9 years. Thank you for accompanying us through all the ups and downs. We have our own limitations, we don't know enough about the world, we always try to pursue the perfect world, and we are complete idealists. In recent years, with the investment in overseas life, it is more rational and objective to look back at China. Every country has its own advantages and disadvantages. China, the United States and India all have their own advantages and disadvantages.
There is no perfect world (no perfect world).
At the beginning of 20 12
Zhao Danyang
China Growth Investment Fund
In 2002, Zhao Danyang began to organize the "China Growth Investment Fund", which was officially placed and put into operation in June 5438+1October 65438+June 2003. At present, Zhao Danyang is also the investment director of the Trust and Investment Consultant of Shenzhen International Investment Corporation (China).
Zhao Danyang is the founder of China Growth Investment Fund, and is known as "the godfather of private placement in China". In 2008, he won the opportunity to have lunch with Warren Buffett for $265,438+065,438+000. According to the Associated Press, Warren Buffett's 2008 charity lunch auction was won by Zhao Danyang, and the transaction price was the highest ever. However, in 20 10, the record was broken by a mysterious buyer who did not want to be named at that time at the price of 262.6110,000 USD. It has now been confirmed that this buyer is Weissler, the managing partner of investment management company Penumbra Capital Advisors, and is currently appointed as one of Buffett's successors to manage Berkshire Hathaway Inc' s huge investment portfolio.