Will gold fall or rise in the second half of 2022?
Whether gold will rise or fall in 2022 is still uncertain.
This is the biggest drop since 20 15. 202 1, the global economy is in the process of recovery, which greatly weakens the safe-haven function of gold. In addition, the global economy is still in the process of recovery in 2022. In addition, the Fed has a core button, which is to raise interest rates. It is predicted that the interest rate hike will be as early as the end of 2022. The inflation rate in the United States is very high now. Some people speculate that the Fed may raise interest rates in the first half of this year, and the rate hike may last several times, which puts great pressure on the price of gold. It is difficult to predict whether it will go up or down.
It is reported that, influenced by the international situation, the price of gold broke through 500 yuan/gram on February 2, 20221day, among which Lao Fengxiang had the biggest increase, and 6 yuan was the first. The highest price is the old temple gold, the insured price is 505 yuan per gram. The lowest price of vegetable gold is 495 yuan per gram. Now the price difference of gold is per gram 10 yuan, which is relatively large. The spot gold market fell on Friday. Although gold rebounded sharply and finally closed at 1.897 USD/oz, today, spot gold rose again, reaching 1.908.34 USD/oz, and then fell, hovering around 1.895 USD.
Forecast of gold trend in the second half of 2022
It should not rise sharply and be in a stable state.
As a precious metal, gold has not only general commodity attributes, but also financial and monetary attributes. It has three functions: hedging, fighting inflation and investing.
Since the beginning of this year, driven by the global low interest rate environment and risk aversion, due to the continuous impact of the global epidemic, the price of gold has risen rapidly and hit record highs. Wind data shows that as of August 4th, the spot price of gold in London closed at 20 18.8 USD/oz, and the futures price of gold in the New York Mercantile Exchange rose above 2037. 1 USD/oz, and the spot and futures prices of gold once again hit a record high. The author believes that there are seven major factors for the rise of gold this year: first, sudden natural and man-made disasters lead to the risk aversion in troubled times, which leads to the increase of gold holdings and the rise of gold prices; Second, the global ultra-loose monetary policy has pushed up the price of gold; Third, the dollar index continued to fall rapidly, pushing up the price of gold. Fourth, the novel coronavirus crisis and local conflicts pushed up the price of gold. Fifth, inflation risk has pushed up the price of gold. Sixth, increased geopolitical risks pushed up the price of gold. Seventh, the supply and demand fundamentals that are in short supply have pushed up the price of gold.
Influencing factors of gold price
1, US economic data
As we all know, gold is denominated in dollars, so what factors will affect the price of gold? The first answer is the economic data of the US market. The quality of American economic data will directly stimulate the trend of the dollar, thus affecting the price of gold, which is usually inversely proportional. For example, if the US economic data performs well, the dollar will appreciate in the short term. On the contrary, the price of gold will be under pressure. Therefore, we should pay more attention to the news and information columns of high-quality platforms.
2. Global monetary policy
In addition to economic data, gold prices are also very sensitive to the adjustment of global monetary policy. Of course, American policy is particularly important. Raising interest rates will increase the cost of holding gold, so it usually depresses the price of gold. On the contrary, lowering interest rates will have a positive impact on the price of gold. Therefore, whenever the Fed makes important decisions, the price of gold will fluctuate greatly. If you want to trade at this time, you must use the price limit platform to control and protect risks.
3. Risk aversion
As an investment product with high risk aversion value in the financial market, the price trend of gold is also closely related to the risk aversion of the market, which is also one of the key factors affecting the price of gold, because it is an uncontrollable factor. Risk avoidance is mainly related to geopolitics, public health events, economic crisis and other factors. When the market risk increases, investors will choose to hold gold to avoid the risk, and the price of gold will naturally rise.
Tip:
In fact, there are many factors that affect the price of gold. In addition to the above three points, it also includes material demand, inflation environment and technical form. Therefore, if you want to make a profit in gold trading, you must constantly improve your analytical skills and study systematically through the column of Daejeon Global Gold Research Institute.