I. China Coking Coal Import Structure For a long time, China's coking coal import dependence has been around 10%. Before 2020, Mongolia and Australia are the main sources of coking coal imported from China. After 2020, China banned the import of Australian coal, and the import structure of coking coal changed. In the first seven months of this year, China imported 3210.6 million tons of coking coal, mainly from Mongolia, Russia, Canada and the United States. The coking coal imports of these four countries account for 97.4% of the total imports. Among them, Mongolian coal accounts for about 45% of imported coal, and Russian coal imports have increased substantially, and there is a trend of gradually replacing Australian coal, and its current proportion in imports has reached 32%.
Second, imported coking coal at Maodu Port in Ganqi. Mongolian coal mainly enters China through Ganqi Maodu, Ceke, Mandula and other ports. Among them, the vast majority of customs clearance at Maodu Port in Ganqi is coking coal, and coking coal clearance at other ports is less. Before 2020, the maximum number of daily customs clearance vehicles at Maodu Port in Ganqi reached 1.400, and then the mask incident occurred, and the number of daily customs clearance vehicles decreased significantly. In the first half of this year, it remained below 400 vehicles, and in July, more than 500 vehicles were cleared. Since the middle and high-level officials visited Mongolia on August 7-8, the number of customs clearance vehicles at Maodu Port in Ganqi has been fluctuating, staying above 570, sometimes exceeding 600, of which 627 vehicles were cleared on August 27, which is also the highest number of vehicles cleared in a single day since March 20021year. In the past week, the average number of vehicles passing through the customs reached 597, and the cumulative import of coal was 565,900 tons, an increase of 127 vehicles per day compared with the same period in July, with an increase of 27.02%. The number of vehicles increased by 425, an increase of 247.09%. Before 2020, Maodu Port in Ganqi will be transported by bulk trucks with a cargo capacity of 1 10- 120 tons. Based on prevention and control considerations, it is now transported in containers and unmanned vehicles are added. There are currently about 40 unmanned vehicles every day.
Iii. Possible impact of changes in Mongolia's coal imports It is expected that Mongolia's coal imports may increase significantly in the later period. The reasons are as follows: 1. The test of Maodu Port in Ganqi began to break through the 900-vehicle mark in September 1. If the test is successful, the number of Mongolian coal entering the port is expected to reach about 700, and the possibility of reaching 800 in some cases is not ruled out. 2. The customs clearance target of Maodu Port in Ganqi this year is170,000 tons of coal. By August 28th, 8,382,800 tons of coal had been imported, only 49.3 1% of the scheduled target was achieved, which means that a higher number of customs clearance is needed from September to February to achieve the annual target. At present, the cargo capacity of each vehicle in the port can reach 135- 140 tons. Excluding the influence of holidays, the average daily customs clearance vehicles at the port need at least 650 vehicles. Mongolia's coal imports are expected to continue to increase, domestic coal supply and price are stable, and the amount of coal imported from Russia will reach a new high. The downstream development and reform commission stressed that steel mills will continue to reduce crude steel production in the second half of the year, and the supply of coking coal tends to be loose, which has greatly suppressed futures prices. It is expected that the general trend of coking coal will be empty in the later period.