Just experienced five consecutive declines in oil prices. On the first working day after the new window, as of February 28th, 65438, the change rate of crude oil was -3.66, and the expected reduction rate was 150 yuan/ton. At present, this data can not be used as a basis for forecasting, but the international crude oil price has fluctuated slightly recently. The trend of 20 19 crude oil actually depends on the will of the United States. From now on, although the US EIA inventory has declined for four consecutive weeks, the number of shale oil drilling in the United States has not decreased, but has increased by two. The domestic crude oil production in the United States has increased by 65,438+million barrels per day compared with the previous week. At the same time, according to the trend of the US dollar, the US dollar index in the foreign exchange market bottomed out last Friday, and it is predicted that the US dollar will be dominated by bulls at the beginning of 20 19, which will correspondingly curb the rise in crude oil prices.
According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a six-month production reduction cycle will begin in June at 5438+ 10, and the total production reduction scale will reach10.2 million barrels per day. However, the actual situation depends on the subsequent implementation. Judging from the reaction of futures market in June 2065438+08, investors have no confidence in OPEC's production reduction, and this scale is also in the initial stage of production reduction.
Personally, the influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on the trend of crude oil is indeed getting smaller and smaller, and the crude oil market is gradually ahead of the United States. Looking at the recent oil production in the United States, the international crude oil will still decline slightly in the short term, and it is expected to be upgraded to 6 yuan in the new year.
20 18 12.28, domestic oil prices ushered in a super rare five-day losing streak in history! Looking at the domestic oil price trend of 20 18, the first ten months really made you tremble and rise all the way, and it didn't stop until the end of 10, and suddenly fell below the oil price level at the beginning of the year.
Since it can usher in a five-day losing streak, many people are looking forward to whether 20 19 can continue to usher in a six-day losing streak and a seven-day losing streak. Even before the Spring Festival, whether the oil price can break six and return to the five-dollar era.
Oil price adjustment mechanism China oil price is adjusted every ten working days. This year's Spring Festival is on February 4th of the new calendar. So before the Spring Festival, our oil price will be adjusted twice (65438+ 10/4 and 65438+10.28). According to the domestic oil price adjustment rules, when the international oil price changes more than 50 yuan/ton, the domestic oil price will be adjusted, and it will not be adjusted if it is lower than 50 yuan/ton.
As of 65438+February 3 1, the international crude oil change rate is -3.9%, and it is expected to be lowered 170 yuan/ton. According to this trend, it is very likely that the oil price will fall for six consecutive days at 65438+ 10/4. Of course, due to the frequent and large fluctuation of crude oil, the price adjustment is subject to the final price adjustment date (. The key still depends on the future trend of international oil prices, so what will happen to the trend of 20 19 international crude oil?
The trend of 20 19 international crude oil depends on two factors: one is the attitude of the United States; The second is the influence of OPEC's production reduction, which is the two poles that have a decisive influence on international oil prices.
The attitude of the United States From the current point of view, the United States is still maintaining the trend of increasing crude oil supply and is still looking forward to continuing to suppress international oil prices. This can be seen from the continuous decline of EIA crude oil inventories in the United States, but the number of shale oil drilling has not decreased, but has increased.
At present, the crude oil production in the United States has reached a new high, with the crude oil production capacity of 1 1.7 million barrels per day. As the world's largest oil consumer, the United States has changed from an oil importer to an exporter. At present, the daily export volume has reached 3.2 million barrels, which has a far-reaching impact on the overall pattern of the international crude oil market!
Opec cut production by 2018 65438+February 6 -7, the organization of petroleum exporting countries held a meeting in Vienna, and announced that it would implement a six-month production reduction cycle from 201910.2 million barrels per day. This news only caused a small correction of international oil prices on the day and the next day. This also shows that the influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on the trend of crude oil is gradually decreasing. Since the advent of shale oil technology in the United States (the daily output of crude oil in the United States is1/kloc-0.7 million barrels, of which shale oil exceeds 8 million barrels), its influence on the international crude oil market has gradually increased. In addition, judging from the strong economic hegemony of the United States itself, the international oil price trend in 2065,438+09 was ultimately determined by the attitude of the United States.
To sum up, judging from the recent increasing oil production in the United States, it is predicted that the international crude oil price will still be lowered at the beginning of 20 19. If1October 28th +65438 international crude oil price drops by 400 yuan/ton, then we may expect to raise the long-lost oil price to 5 yuan during the Spring Festival, but this is also an extreme value and will not be lowered, because according to China's oil price adjustment mechanism,
Personally, I think the oil price of 20 19 is the trend of falling first and then rising. The fluctuation trend of domestic oil price has gone with the tide of international oil price, so we can't be immune to it. At present, oil prices are still falling, but they will not keep falling. In the past two years, crude oil has been falling and rising, falling and rising for a while. There is no stable trend and law to follow.
The main reasons for the decline in crude oil are as follows:
First, international crude oil overproduction. Although the United States imposed economic sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, the crude oil output of the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia increased significantly, offsetting the impact of sanctions on the two countries. For example, the average daily output of non-OPEC oil-producing countries is 6.5438+0.9 million barrels, 6.5438+0.9 million barrels more than expected. This year, the world economy is generally depressed, and the global demand for crude oil is only 6.5438+0.4 million barrels per day.
Second, the United States sanctioned Iran and embarked on the road of oil, but more than a dozen countries, led by China, can still import Iranian oil. Many countries follow the embargo policy of the United States, but China always does not follow the policy of a big country, preferring independence. Moreover, Iranian crude oil prices have been lowered a lot under the blockade of the United States, which is conducive to the downward trend of domestic oil prices in China.
Third, the continuous development of new energy sources has reduced the consumption of crude oil. China still supports the development of new energy sources, attracting investment, devoting great efforts to human and material resources, researching and applying new energy sources such as wind energy, solar energy and lithium batteries, and gradually replacing the role of non-renewable resources such as crude oil in the next stage.
Don't think that domestic oil prices have been falling and oil resources are in danger of drying up. The technical cost of shale oil exploitation in the United States is very high. Once the world economy recovers, oil prices will soon usher in the peak of price increase. It is estimated that the average price of 20 19 Brent crude oil is 54.47 USD/barrel, and the average price of 2065 438+09 WTI is 46.22 USD/barrel.
On February 28th, 65438, domestic refined oil prices formed a "five-day losing streak" pattern for the first time during the year! February 5, 20 19, the traditional Spring Festival is coming. Before this, it is worth looking forward to the trend of domestic oil prices and whether they can fall below the 6 yuan mark!
International crude oil prices continue to fall. If you want to know whether domestic oil prices can continue to fall, the key is to look at the trend of international crude oil prices! Since 12 and 14, the international crude oil price has been falling continuously! Although it rose by 8% in retaliation on Christmas Eve (25th), it could not change the overall trend of weak oil prices. In the future, at least in the short term, international crude oil prices will continue to fall!
Therefore, the bearish oil price factor still exists, and the international crude oil price is likely to fall mainly in the short term!
Domestic oil prices may continue to fall. After today, the domestic oil price "fell for five consecutive days", the gasoline supply price dropped by 370 yuan/ton, and the 92# oil price will drop to 6.42 yuan per liter. 20 1 9,65438+10, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window will be opened twice, namely1,14,28! According to the current international crude oil price trend, domestic gasoline will be lowered by more than 200 yuan/ton, and 92# oil price may fall by -0.20 yuan/liter again to 6.22 yuan/liter before the Spring Festival on 20 19!
In short, before the Spring Festival of 20 19, the domestic 92# oil price may fall to 6.22 yuan/liter! Let's look forward to the arrival of the era of low oil prices! This is the end of the calf, a guy lost billions of dollars. For a company that has been losing money, this is fatal. Let it add 5 yuan of oil and not go bankrupt.
Now people's attention to oil price fluctuations has been very weak. Price increase is inevitable, and price reduction is accidental! There is nothing you can do, you can only let nature take its course!
In February, the first domestic crude oil futures contract has fallen below 380 yuan/barrel, and it is likely to fluctuate or rebound slightly in the future. According to the national oil price pricing rules, if it fluctuates within 50 yuan, it will not be adjusted, so I personally think that the oil price before the Spring Festival will not change much after this drop.
About how the oil price is much longer, buy less cars and can't afford to burn oil
It's estimated that it's more than 8 yuan, and you can earn him a hand during the Chinese New Year.
1 ten thousand yuan. What about Sinopec? Such an excellent central enterprise, the top 500 ranking is still so high.
On Thursday, US time, major stock indexes of US stocks closed up across the board, with the Dow rising for the fifth consecutive day, led by technology stocks. Th