Results After the Spring Festival, the price of urea rose sharply, and this wavelength trend hit a new high in recent years.
So, what is the reason for the increase in urea prices? What is the price trend of urea? Let's have a look.
The reasons for the increase in urea price are 1 and industrial demand, mainly in the plate industry. Due to the continuous smog weather in June 5438+February, mainstream areas such as Shandong and Henan have different degrees of environmental protection and limited production. The end of production restriction after February 28-29, 2020, the buffer of New Year's Day holiday and the recovery of industrial demand after New Year's Day will promote the initial rise of the market.
2. Agricultural demand, starting from 65438 at the end of February, due to the demand for topdressing in some areas before and after the Spring Festival and the demand for the first wave of returning green fertilizer after the holiday, agriculture in mainstream areas has been in reserve one after another.
However, after the Hebei epidemic, based on the possible logistics shipments in the later period and the control of various regions. The intention to prepare agricultural fertilizers has increased greatly, which is one of the main driving forces for the subsequent market surge.
3. Since the start of the industry, the daily production level of urea industry has been slowly improving. It is estimated that the daily output will increase to more than120,000 tons with the end of Jincheng's limited production in early October. However, due to the continuous closure of enterprises, the daily output has been fluctuating at the level of11.5-120,000 tons, which is obviously lower than the same period12.
In addition, in terms of gas head policy, although the shutdown time of gas head enterprises is later than 20 17 in winter of 2020, the final gas head daily output level has dropped to below 10000 tons, second only to the gas head daily output level of 0.9 million tons in the most serious gas shortage period of 20 17. At present, the news of gas head start-up is unknown, and some enterprises may resume production one after another before the Spring Festival, but for the decline of total output in the first quarter,
Then the possibility of releasing new capacity in the first quarter is limited, so the expectation of tight supply has always existed, supporting the market to run at a high level.
4. International market: After New Year's Day, the international market rose sharply. On the one hand, due to the seasonal demand of the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, Europe and other countries in the first quarter, on the other hand, the supply in Asia is tight. China mainly sells domestically, and Indonesian and Malaysian exports are limited, which leads to the overall tight price increase in the international market.
At present, the latest domestic FOB transaction exceeds FOB3 10 USD/ton, which is 30 USD/ton higher than the original 280 USD/ton, bringing confidence and bottom support to the domestic market.
5. Low inventory. Due to the demand for agricultural reserves in the winter of 2020 and the spring of 20021year, and the continuous low daily output of the industry, the level of factory and warehouse in urea enterprises has remained at a low level. By the end of June, 5438+ 10/4, the total number of factories and warehouses was 252,800 tons, which decreased by nearly half compared with 496 10 tons in the same period.
6. the cost has risen. Due to the tight supply of thermal coal, the coal price rose by about 100 yuan per ton from June 5438+02 to June 5438+00, and the total cost line of enterprises rose by 50- 100 yuan per ton. It is estimated that the total cost line of fixed bed process is per ton 1600- 1700 yuan.
The price of natural gas in Southwest China has been raised from June 1 1.53 yuan/m3, and now it is about 1.83 yuan/m3, corresponding to the full cost level of 2 10 yuan/ton.
However, at present, the profit margin of enterprises is large, and the impact of rising costs is limited.
7. Urea futures, the post-holiday futures market rose significantly.
The domestic spot rose, the international market rose obviously, and internal and external factors exerted a double force. 1 gas head resumed production at the end of the month, and other negative factors were hard to find in a short time. The bullish sentiment in the market is gradually rising, and the bullish trend is gradually obvious from 65438+1October 7. By 14, it is difficult to be bearish on the technical side, and the disk breakthrough pattern is obvious. The closing price exceeded 2000 yuan/ton for the first time, and there is still room for improvement.
At present, short positions are difficult to come out, and there may be short positions in the later period; Bulls go first, lose first, and are reluctant to go.
Urea price trend Recently, the domestic urea market has been stable and local prices have risen slightly, and new orders from manufacturers have followed suit. Some enterprises have shipped orders in Hong Kong one after another, and the inventory pressure has gradually eased. At present, most manufacturers have got enough orders in advance, and most of them have a very high price mentality.
On the supply side, the start-up load of urea enterprises remains high, and the daily output of urea is about 6.5438+0.6 million tons, and the supply end is sufficient.
On the demand side, except for the fertilizer used for wheat and corn in Northeast China, the rest areas mainly purchase from sporadic sources, and the start-up load of industrial compound fertilizer enterprises increases slightly, and most of them purchase according to their own conditions.