According to the statistics of American futures management institutions, a successful trader generally needs five years and a tuition fee of 50,000 dollars, and even if you pay time and money, the probability of success is less than 1%.
A common novice trap is the perfect trading syndrome. For example, a trader made money with Method A once, and then lost money with Method A several times in a row, so he found a better method after careful study and observation, and then gave up because of the loss. Over and over again, his trading career is not a trading career, but a career of finding the perfect method. There should be many such people among futures traders.
First, the psychology of trend traders
There are corresponding psychological barriers behind every transaction method. For trend traders, they must have the following psychological preparations:
Profit taking is a common thing. Let profits run is the motto of trend traders, and profit-taking is inevitable. After several profit-taking, novices often predict high or low points, thus losing their positions and rare profit opportunities in the general trend. There is no need to regret the retreat of floating profits. Obviously, this is an afterthought.
Accustomed to continuous small losses. Patience and persistence are the most important qualities of trend traders. After continuous losses, you must wait patiently for the trend to come and stick to your own principles to trade, otherwise it will be like you just spent money to decorate a luxury restaurant, but gave up the business.
Willing to buy high and sell low. The winning rate of trend traders is less than 50%, because there are few trends and the market is trendless most of the time. 95% of the profits come from 5% of the transactions.
Second, the psychology of ordinary traders.
Average trading includes arbitrage trading and hedging trading, and traders use swing indicators, such as KDJ and RSI. They all use the extreme value of market fluctuations or deviate from the average to place orders and close their positions when the market returns to the average.
Willing to endure a big loss and offset several gains. For example, shorting when the market is overbought, but in extreme cases, there may be a big loss caused by a sharp gap rise, or the spread caused by arbitrage and forced liquidation exceeds the maximum amplitude of historical fluctuations.
The average trader has a high winning rate.
Compared with trend traders, the average trader has more free time, and he can go on vacation. Trend traders must insist on trading and wait for the big trend to appear after experiencing continuous losses.
Average trading does not grasp the top and bottom of the market, they always try to grasp the unstable part of the market. But if the trend continues to develop, the assumption of instability is wrong, and we must immediately close our positions and admit our mistakes. Low profit-loss ratio must be tolerated.
Third, the psychology of day trading.
Futures day traders provide sufficient liquidity for the market.
There are many kinds of intraday trading methods, such as fixed trading, momentum trading, program trading, high-frequency trading, intraday arbitrage, intraday hedging and so on.
Decisiveness is the most important quality of day traders. An indecisive trader often turns losses into overnight losses and then dies, resulting in heavy losses.
Be sure to understand that a good deal can't make you, and a bad deal may ruin your account or life.
The choice of intraday trading varieties is particularly important, and it must have sufficient liquidity and volatility. Not all varieties can be cooked in one day, just as not all ponds have fish.
Don't overdo intraday trading in one day? This sentence is obviously subjective. If there are many opportunities, why not trade more? In other words, as long as you insist on trading, you will make a profit. Of course, on the premise of observing the trading principles and discipline.
If your commission rate is not low enough, please give up day trading.
Discipline is the guarantee for the success of day traders. Day trading is manual work, and the combination of work and rest is the most important. Smart day traders look at the big picture and start small.
Intraday flexibility is the most important. Don't think that day traders can't stay overnight. For example, in a bull market, low prices tend to go up. At this time, if a successful buying position is profitable, why not overnight?
Novices often flinch in order to get back their money after losing a few dollars that day, or to keep the fruits of victory after making profits, give up the greater profit opportunities that day, and go against their own trading principles to do intraday trading.
Smart day traders never check the rights and interests of customers when trading, nor will they let profit and loss affect their mentality and principles. Maybe they don't care about profit and loss, they only care about whether they obey discipline.
Most day traders have more than one computer, and their keen eyes allow them to find more opportunities.
Fourth, the psychology of form trading.
Formal transactions rely on their own judgment and experience, which is contrary to programmed transactions that give buying and selling signals to computers.
It requires a lot of after-hours analysis, even learning from fundamentals, and requires patient quality.
Trend programmed trading will not miss any big market, and morphological traders may miss the market. They need strong self-repair psychology. It can be said that the psychological pressure they bear is far greater than that of programmed traders.
The flexibility of trading allows them to use loose fund management methods, which may make huge profits. For example, the variety of programmed trading orders uses 20% of the funds at a time. If it suddenly swells to 40%, the inconsistency of trading may lead to the collapse of the system, but the morphological traders may fight under certain conditions, such as shrinking the day and adding positions.
Morphological transactions include persistent mode and reverse mode.
Fifth, the fundamental trading psychology.
With the goal of judging the future trend of the financial market, the economy and some data are thoroughly analyzed. Data is the biggest analysis basis here, but it is often impossible to make the final investment decision with data. If the data can solve the problem, the computer would have replaced the human brain to complete the fundamental analysis. In fact, in addition to data, it also includes many things that cannot be measured by data.
The fundamental analysis is the relationship between supply and demand of goods, and things are rare. Fundamental analysis has no formula and can be said to be very subjective.
Value investment depends largely on fundamental analysis, while traditional value investment depends entirely on fundamental analysis. The traditional value investment is generally like a daughter getting married, running with a' commitment' attitude and advocating long-term holding after buying.
Most fundamental analysts focus on buying, because the price of goods will not reach zero, but it will not be capped.
Fundamental analysts focus on long-term investments. Fundamental traders are confident and firm.
Sixth, the trading psychology of losers.
Traders who don't stop loss can't afford to get hurt. They have no discipline and often give orders according to the news.
Often injured by the trend of the outer disk. For example, the external disk has fallen, and the downward gap has digested the influence of the external disk. It is not advisable to blindly chase the empty space. If the trend is upward, it is an opportunity to buy. In fact, more than 60% of the time in the day is contrary to the overnight trend of the external market the day before.
I can't afford to lose money, let alone confidence. I always want to find a way to make money. Be bearish or bullish on a variety.
Seven, the correct management of funds
(A) two simple methods of fund management
1, fixed proportion rule (suitable for programmed trading)
Investor A used 500,000 yuan for futures, three varieties, and each variety opened a position of 10%, totaling 30%, and spent 15000 yuan. After trading for a period of time, the fund reached 600,000 yuan, which was still 10% of each variety, totaling 30%, and the used fund reached180,000 yuan. If you trade, you have to recalculate every time you open a position.
2, 2% gold bar rule (applicable to form trading, day trading, etc. )
Each loss shall not exceed 2% of the total funds. If a trader invests 500,000 yuan in futures, then 2% is 6,543,800 yuan, and the loss of each transaction should be controlled within 6,543,800 yuan. Let's look at an example of zinc:
We plan to buy at 18 135 and stop at 17930, so if there is a loss, the loss of a transaction is:
(18135 ——17930) * 5 =1025 yuan.
Divide 10000 yuan by 1025 yuan to get 9.3, then we can only place 9 orders in this transaction, so as to ensure that we only lose 2% of the total funds when we lose money.
Then, even if you lose money 20 times in a row, you still have 340 thousand, but this possibility is almost impossible, because the so-called fixed transaction is to trade with a high probability formula.
(2) Mysterious and mysterious heavy trading
Let's look at an example first:
Take the four-week regular program trading as an example, that is, buy at the highest point in the first 20 days, close the position at the lowest point in the first 10 days, and vice versa.
The principal is 500,000 yuan. From April 1994 to now, the profit of 10% rubber warehouse is 24 16%, and the profit of 20% rubber warehouse is 27649%.
We can see that after the opening ratio doubled, the income increased by 1 1 times.
This is the magic of compound interest. The ratio of 10% means that after making money, 10% of the profitable part will be invested additionally.
However, if there is another trader with a principal of 500,000 yuan, he adopts the following fund management:
That is, 65,438+00% of the investment is 50,000 yuan (the remaining 450,000 yuan is used as a reserve fund), and 65,438+000% of the money earned by Man Cang is reused every transaction.
Advantages: huge income and high capital utilization rate.
Disadvantages: large retreat, need a chance to intervene.
Eight, the correct trading concept
Trade in a way that suits your personality and keep trading.
Discipline is the premise of success. There is no perfect trading method, and every method has fatal psychological obstacles and difficult times.
The market is dynamic and the trading system has timeliness.
Variety is not eternal, and liquidity and trend come from the intervention of funds.
Winners do not use special trading methods, but are reborn, which is a high degree of unity of personality and methods.