Will the ten-year Treasury bond continue to rise in December?

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First understand the relationship between bond prices, bond yields, and interest rates.

Raising interest rates is an action by the central bank to raise some benchmark interest rates, which will include the yield to maturity of government bonds. Therefore, normally raising interest rates will increase the yield to maturity, but will lower bond prices. Raising interest rates will inhibit borrowing and reduce speculation, which will cause the price of bonds to fall in the secondary market in the short term. Generally speaking, bonds with better targets will not fall below their face value.

However, raising interest rates is a long-term behavior, and the impact is that the bond yield to maturity increases, but the price falls.

An interest rate cut will do the opposite, leading to a decrease in the long-term yield to maturity of bonds and an increase in short-term prices.

China is currently dealing with the inflation caused by the energy crisis, and most likely will not raise interest rates, because domestic inflation is still relatively stable, and due to the huge domestic debt and economic slowdown, it is not allowed to raise interest rates. Instead, it will expand investment. . However, large-scale interest rate increases will lead to inflation. The answer is unclear whether China will follow the world into this stagflation.

So according to the question, there is a high probability that China’s government bond yields will not increase in 2022, but will slowly decrease. Because compared to other countries, we have relatively sufficient currency and fiscal tools to expand investment, and have a strong ability to maintain stable inflation. < /p>

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China's ten-year government bond yield in 2022

In March 2022, the ten-year government bond yield was 2.81%; the year-on-year growth rate was -11.79%, and the growth rate was lower than the following The average value in the report is -2.461%, and the growth rate is under pressure. Data last updated: 2022-03-07 18:22:48. The Treasury yield refers to the ratio of the income earned from investing in Treasury bonds to the total amount invested each year. The rate calculated over one year is the annual rate of return. Bond yields are usually expressed in terms of annual yield "%". The yield curve is for treasury bond analysis just like the K-line chart is for stock analysis. It seems simple and intuitive, but it contains endless mysteries. With the continuous development of international financial innovation since the 1970s, the importance of the yield curve has gone far beyond the field of national debt analysis and has become one of the cornerstones of the entire financial analysis. There is a clear correlation between the rate of return on savings (that is, the interest rate on savings) and the maturity time. The longer the term, the higher the interest rate. Therefore, if you do not consider the problem of capital occupation, you should choose a savings variety with a longer term to obtain higher returns. In order to easily display the relationship between the yield and the maturity period, you can use the maturity period as the abscissa and the yield as the ordinate, draw the yields in different periods on a graph, and use a smooth curve to connect these points Connected. This is the yield curve for bank savings. Similarly, as an investment tool, Treasury bonds have a similar relationship between their yield and maturity. Generally speaking, the longer the term, the higher the yield. In order to accurately grasp this changing relationship and thus correctly select investment types among short-term, medium-term and long-term government bonds, people invented the important analysis tool of the government bond yield curve. For investors, the more important yield indicators are as follows: 1. Direct income. The calculation of the direct yield is very straightforward. Just divide the annual interest by the market price of the government bond, that is, i=C/P0. 2. Maturity income. Yield to maturity refers to the rate of return that enables the sum of the present values ??of future cash flows of Treasury bonds to equal the market price. Yield to maturity is one of the most important yield indicators.

There are several important assumptions in calculating the yield to maturity of treasury bonds: (1) The treasury bonds are held until maturity; (2) The interest income is reinvested and the investment yield is equal to the yield to maturity. 3. Holding period income. Investors are usually more concerned about the yield on holding government bonds within a certain period of time, that is, the holding period yield. The calculation formula for the holding period yield is: i=(P2-P1+I)/P1. Among them, P1 is the price at which investors buy government bonds, P2 is the price at which investors sell government bonds, and I is the investment during the holding period. The interest income earned by the investor.

Financial Cuckoo

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The 2022 ten-year Treasury bond yield will rise unilaterally in December

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The ten-year Treasury bond yield

The recent ten-year Treasury bond interest rate is 3.050%- The range is 3.400%, the coupon rate is 3.25%, and the maturity date is November 22, 2028. The ten-year government bond interest rate can reflect changes in the macroeconomic development cycle to a certain extent and can also predict the future economy. The country can then make policy adjustments based on the yield curve to help the economy continue to grow. In the domestic market, the ten-year government bond yield is the basis for RMB asset pricing. Because the yield on the ten-year government bond is a long-term bond guaranteed by the national credit, it is usually regarded as the risk-free rate of return. Not only the stock market, but also the asset prices of the futures market and the real estate market also depend on the risk-free rate of return in the market. (Ten-Year Treasury Bond Yield).

Extended information: The ten-year Treasury bond interest rate is introduced as follows: The price, interest rate, maturity and credit of the bond determine the price trajectory of the entire financial market asset. For the A-share market, if the ten-year government bond yield rises rapidly, it can provide very high returns. Then, a large amount of market funds may enter the bond market, which will lead to a lack of funds in the A-share market, increase the pressure on market funds, and may cause the market to fall. Moreover, if the ten-year government bond yield rises rapidly, market consumption and corporate borrowing will face higher costs, which will inhibit market consumption and corporate development.

Lawyer Chen Yixuan

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