20 1 1 The contract price of international coking coal was basically adjusted in the first quarter. According to media reports, steel mills have agreed to accept BHP Billiton's request for an 8% increase in the agreed price of coking coal in the first quarter of 201/kloc-0, that is, the international coking coal price will return to the high price of $225/ton in the third quarter of 20 10 in the next three months. This price increase is basically similar to the iron ore price increase of 7.6% in the first quarter of 201/kloc-0.

In the past six months, due to the serious slowdown of crude steel production in China, supported by the rising steel consumption demand in Europe and America, the proportion of Asian crude steel production in global crude steel production continued to decline, and the international coking coal price remained at a high level (209 USD/ton in the fourth quarter). From 20 10 to 10, although the proportion of crude steel production in Asia decreased to 6 1.66%, the global steel production began to rebound obviously, indicating that the demand for coking coal in other regions is still strong.

With the recovery of the operating rate of domestic steel industry, the domestic coking coal price is expected to rise sharply with the international market. At present, the destocking of domestic steel industry has basically ended. With the gradual withdrawal of the production restriction mechanism, the domestic steel industry has continued to resume production since 65438+February. According to our steel industry monitoring report, the operating rate has reached 85%. For the whole year, judging from the growth rate of fixed assets investment of 20 1 1 23%, the growth rate of crude steel output of 20 1 1 7% is guaranteed. In the short term, the rebound of domestic steel production growth rate and the rise of international coking coal price will drive the domestic coking coal price to have a strong expectation of rising.

Since June 20 10,10, coke prices in various places have begun to show an obvious warming trend, but there is still 56%-70% room for coke prices to peak in 2008. The increase of coke price can obviously boost the short-term performance of coke listed companies; After the introduction of coke futures, listed companies can avoid large fluctuations in coke prices through hedging, and the valuation level of the sector is expected to be improved. Coke futures officially tested 20 1 1 in March.

It is conducive to mastering the international pricing power: China's coke products occupy an important position in the international market and have become the largest coke exporter in the world, with an annual coke export volume of about140,000 tons, accounting for nearly 60% of the international coke trade volume, of which Shanxi Province alone accounts for more than 50% of the international coke trade market. Tianjin Port is the largest coke export port in China, and its price has become the weather vane of the international coke market. After the global financial crisis broke out, due to shrinking foreign demand and China's strategic protection of coke resources, tariffs as high as 40% were imposed and the export quota system was implemented, resulting in a sharp drop of more than 95% in coke exports in 2009. After entering the 20 10 year, exports resumed. In the first half of the year, Shanxi Province exported 708,000 tons of coke, up 6.2 times year-on-year, accounting for 50.6% of the national total coke export of 6.5438+0.4 million tons. It shows that China coke still occupies a large proportion in the international market, and the establishment of coke futures varieties will be more beneficial for China to grasp the international pricing power of coke.

It is beneficial to protect the interests of the industry: Liu Tailai, deputy secretary-general of Shanxi Coking Industry Association, believes that with the arrival of China's heavy chemical industry era, the demand for steel in the whole society is increasing day by day, which has driven the strong demand for coke. For the coking industry accustomed to the simple profit model of purchasing coking coal, refining coke and selling it to steel mills, coke futures trading is not only conducive to promoting the structural adjustment of the coking industry, but also to improving the industrialization development and risk resistance. Moreover, after the introduction of coke futures, a pricing center can be established, and hedging with futures can also help enterprises avoid the risk of price fluctuations and protect the interests of the industry.

It is beneficial for enterprises to avoid risks: the self-sufficiency rate of coke in China iron and steel enterprises is only about 30%, and about 70% of coke demand must be solved through market channels. China's coking industry is located in the downstream of the coal industry and the upstream of the steel industry, squeezed by the high cost of upstream coal and the low price of downstream steel, and the profit space is narrow. 20 10 is affected by the fluctuation of steel market price, and the coke price also fluctuates. The price of coke fluctuated from165438+ 1900 yuan (ton price, the same below) in late October to the current 1700 ~ 1800 yuan. However, the price of coking coal is still high. The price of grade 9 coking coal in Linfen is as high as 1630 yuan. However, the downstream steel industry was affected by the previous energy saving and emission reduction, and the demand for coke declined, and the price of coke was greatly affected by the price of steel. 20 1 1, coking enterprises even trade with steel mills at a coke price lower than the cost price 100 yuan, and the coking industry suffers serious losses. Domestic coking enterprises generally take measures to limit production, and most coking plants in Hebei and Shanxi are in the process of limiting production, with a range of 30% ~ 50%. China's coking enterprises are facing huge business risks, and it is urgent to find effective means to avoid risks and market-oriented management mechanism. The listing of coke futures varieties is beneficial to the healthy and stable operation of domestic coke production enterprises and domestic coking industry.