In fact, if the economy itself is concerned, the impact is not too great. If there had been a trade war 1 years ago, we would have got down on the spot and we didn't have the strength to fight. Because 1 years ago, our national development strategy was an export-oriented economic growth mode. In 27, our dependence on exports was close to 7%.

but then something happened, which was the American economic crisis in 28. The American economic crisis is both good and bad for China. In fact, an important influence on China is that we finally found that it is obviously not enough for an economic entity as big as our country to rely on exports to grow.

after the economic crisis in p>28, China adjusted its strategy from export-oriented to domestic demand-driven, and adjusted it for 1 years. By the end of 217, our dependence on exports has dropped from 7% to around 1%. Last year, our total GDP was 82 trillion, and the contribution of exports was about 8 trillion, of which the United States contributed one third.

so, if the trade war goes to the end, we won't export any money to the United States, and the impact on our growth will be .2-.5 percentage points, with a maximum impact of .5. .5 We can still afford it. Assuming the growth rate is 6.5% this year, it will be reduced to 6% at most.

The reason why China has repeatedly said that we have confidence and confidence in the trade war is that our strategy has undergone major changes. From the export-oriented type 1 years ago to the domestic demand-driven type. Therefore, Trump always called their former president a pig, that is, you were too stupid. You should have attacked China 1 years ago, but now it is too late. As soon as you do it, (China) will fight you back.

although the economic impact of the trade war itself is not too great, the emotional impact is very great.

Extended information:

Once the U.S. 31 restrictive measures are implemented, Sino-U.S. trade friction will escalate in an all-round way. Although some local American producers competing with China may gain some profits, downstream enterprises will suffer more losses.

For example, in early 218, the United States announced a four-year restriction on global imports of photovoltaic products. This move has been strongly opposed by many local governments and related enterprises in the United States, because downstream enterprises such as installation are the demanders of photovoltaic products, and their profit margins will be severely squeezed. According to the estimation of the American Solar Energy Industry Association, 23, people in related industries in the United States will lose their jobs.

According to experts, under this circumstance, it is only wishful thinking for the Trump administration to revitalize the manufacturing industry and save jobs with trade protectionism.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics also pointed out that the escalation of US trade friction with China will lead to an increase of 2-3 percentage points in the unemployment rate.

a trade war is a process in which both sides take turns to punch. "If the United States continues to use unilateral trade protection measures, China will certainly strike back hard, American exporters will face higher tariffs, and the welfare of consumers, especially low-income people, will be directly damaged by the increase in commodity prices." Dong Yan, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of China Academy of Social Sciences, said.

In addition, close allies of the United States will also suffer from the escalation of trade friction. For example, considering the increasingly close production cooperation and economic and trade relations between Japan, South Korea and China, the United States will impose a high trade tax on China products, which will affect the value chain and production pattern between China, Japan and South Korea, and between the United States and Asia-Pacific countries and regions, and even destroy the value chain in the Asia-Pacific region.

? China. com Henan Ministry of Commerce —— The influence of current Sino-US trade friction on China's foreign trade.