I think the plunge in international oil prices is mainly affected by the following four factors:
The first is the weakening demand for crude oil. With the strong rise of new energy vehicles (Tesla, Li, Weilai), the audience buying gasoline vehicles has further decreased, which has also weakened the international demand for crude oil. When supply exceeds demand, it is inevitable that oil prices will fall.
Friends around me, on average, have 1 out of every four drivers driving trams. In the long run, trams may further replace fuel cars. Didn't the EU put forward a plan to stop selling fuel vehicles and increase the popularity of trams in 2035? Although unrealistic, it also indirectly shows that it may be only a matter of time before trams replace fuel vehicles.
The second is the increase of domestic oil production. As we said before, the demand for crude oil is decreasing year by year, and it stands to reason that the oil output of oil-producing countries should be reduced accordingly at this time. A big oil-producing country like Saudi Arabia broke the previous "production reduction agreement" in order to ensure its fiscal revenue. Instead of reducing production, it increased oil production.
In addition, because Russia is worried that oil production will decrease and the national economy will be difficult to maintain, the United States will make a profit (the United States is also a big oil producer) and will not cut production at all. Although sales in Europe were limited, he finally found a transit station and sold it through an "intermediary", and the sales volume increased instead of decreasing.
There is also a price bubble. The current international situation is extremely unstable, and social panic is spreading further. The Russian-Ukrainian war lasted for more than a year, the Middle East was constantly in war, and there was discord within the West. The unstable social environment has further reduced the price of oil. In order to ensure the further shrinkage of social operation, other payments are also reduced accordingly.
Finally, the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike. In order to alleviate the dangerous economic situation in the United States and consolidate the position of the dollar, the Federal Reserve further raised interest rates (the end of the interest rate hike has not yet been seen). The Fed's interest rate hike led to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank and signature bank Deng Bank, and the run triggered a liquidity crisis.
As a risky product, petroleum has been affected to some extent. The weakening of superimposed market demand led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices. At the same time, due to the uncertainty of whether the Fed will raise interest rates further, the market is generally in a wait-and-see state, investment and purchase sentiment are depressed, and it is unknown when oil prices will rebound.
Falling oil prices are a double-edged sword for our country, which can effectively reduce the cost of imported oil, and of course the cost of daily refueling is also reduced. However, falling oil prices will also lead to falling commodity prices in related industrial chains, especially for Sinopec and PetroChina.
At present, the decline in oil prices will continue, and it is not impossible to return to the 5 yuan era. Let's wait and see.