The trend is divided into upward trend and downward trend, and there is a sideways oscillation trend between the two trends. Trends are divided into long-term trends, medium-term trends and short-term trends. The best grasp of the trend is the long-term trend, especially the long-term upward trend, which is what we call a bull market. The operation is relatively simple and the benefits are great. A shares are in a bear market and a volatile market for a long time, and the long-term trend is very weak. Judging from the long-term trend of A-share market, it is not suitable for stock trading, and people often can't control their own hands and are very enthusiastic about the construction of the country. Therefore, it is boring to do the long-term trend of A-share market, and few people will follow suit. When the long-term trend is not good, the mid-line trend is also difficult to grasp, and the increase is not large. In good times, it is three ups and two downs. It can be seen from the bad habits of A shares that the medium-term trend is meaningless, so few people will follow suit. The most important operation in the A-share market is the short-term trend, which is generally 60 minutes and 30 minutes. The short-term trend of SMS changes greatly, which is quite difficult to control. Short-term generally needs long-term trends to cooperate. It is normal to find that the short-term trend is good when the long-term trend is good. Under the long-term bad trend of A shares, it will be more difficult to capture good short-term opportunities in accidental opportunities. Sometimes it is better to listen to the news according to the trend and operate according to your own feelings.
Everyone knows to follow suit, but everyone wants to follow suit and make money when they enter the stock market. However, the A-share market has been in a long-term downturn, and this opportunity is rare. Less opportunities, less training. With fewer opportunities, it is difficult to grasp them. If there are fewer opportunities, people will follow suit and not achieve much. Gradually, people will rarely follow suit. Only when A shares cheer up and let everyone realize the power of taking advantage of the trend will more and more people take advantage of the trend.
Why can't most ordinary traders follow suit?
The main reasons are as follows.
Subjective transaction:
What is subjective trading, that is, you think it will be like this, but often the market is self-centered, rather than following the market, or when the market trend reverses, it will not change the original trading strategy and expect the market to go in its own way. This is one of the reasons why ordinary traders can't follow suit.
Trying to buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point:
A trader can't always follow the trend. He always wants to buy at the lowest price and sell at the highest price. He doesn't know how to follow the trend. Those who copy the bottom often copy halfway up the mountain, and those who touch the top often touch the top. Finding the bottom is a big taboo in trading, and it often doesn't follow suit. So a trader likes to buy at the lowest point or sell at the highest point, which means instability and it is difficult to follow suit.
There is no set of methods to judge the trend:
When you don't have a standard to judge the trend or a method to identify it, why not follow suit? First of all, you must have a set of methods to judge the trend, in order to talk about following the trend. For example: trend line, bollinger band, moving average and other technologies to judge the trend. When there is a way to judge the trend, you can follow it as long as you recognize it and then follow it. Otherwise, it is impossible to follow the trend.
Therefore, as an ordinary trader, if you want to follow the trend, you can follow the trend by doing the above three points. The rest is execution.
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Because there are too many uncertainties in actual combat, when you are in a constantly changing market, you will constantly change your strategy.
Therefore, following the trend requires not only looking at the trend, but more importantly, doing it right.
For example, in the upward trend, there will always be a retreat, and you will also be affected by various external factors. When you are not sure about the effectiveness of the trend, you will naturally change your strategy.
Similarly, even if there is a downward trend, there will be a short-term rebound, and sometimes even a new high. But soon you will find that the overall downward trend remains unchanged and will continue to fall in the end.
Here I want to talk about my personal experience. If you want to follow the trend, only if the position management is better can you really follow the trend.
Usually, if your position is too heavy at first, you are likely to be shaken out in the trend operation. In fact, this is human nature, so you can take advantage of the situation by controlling your position and gradually opening positions in batches.
There is wine and meat!
First of all, please clear your name. Why is it called an ordinary trader? How can you pretend to be an ordinary trader when you have invested more than 30% of your assets or your whole body in stock trading? Is there any reason for ordinary traders to lose money? Therefore, every transaction is a war, and we have to bear the price in exchange for valuable gains. This is our only goal. Therefore, every operation should be very cautious. It is better not to move than to start easily.
Why can't you follow suit?
1, megatrend misjudgment. 20 19 what will happen in the world by 2020? War, virus, locust plague, fire, oil price war, Sino-US trade war. These all affect the macro-economy. The stock market is not much better. How many people profited from stock trading during this period? Even asset management, investment companies and listed companies are deeply involved.
2. luck. Knowing that the world is not peaceful, some people were reluctant to cut meat before, expecting a turn for the better. Some people take part in running even though they know that the world is not peaceful. They think they have experience and they must earn some money.
3. The psychology of bargain hunting is serious, ignoring the technical analysis of individual stocks. In fact, the signal given by the technical indicators is very clear, that is, I can't help but make a deal. Knowing that the bargain-hunting failed, the downward trend continued and refused to cut meat.
4. The situation of individual stocks has obviously changed, and they still refuse to let go. Even if the bargain-hunting is successful, the stock price has risen to the top and started to fall, but it still refuses to let go, leading to the previous profit taking.
There is an old saying that "the wind blows the grass on the wall, and the wind blows the grass there", and the ancients also said that "those who know the times are heroes". That is, they are telling us that when faced with difficult choices, we must choose the side that is more beneficial to us and avoid the side that is more harmful to us. Therefore, in the process of this choice, this so-called advantage is the "potential" that follows the trend here. And the process of this choice is "shun" or "reverse". So "following the trend" is the best choice. Being a man is the same as doing things, and so is our transaction-we must follow the trend.
Follow the trend of the market
From the market point of view, especially for A shares, due to the late development of domestic capital market, its own stock market structure is not mature enough. The structural characteristics of the stock market are short bulls and long bears, and there is a bull market and a bear market cycle every 7-8 years, during which the stock market fluctuates greatly. So once the market has experienced a short bull market, the market overdraws all the rising ranges. The stock price began to fall sharply in the bull market, and after a short-term rebound, the market continued its downward trend and slowly bottomed out. Therefore, if the transactions under the inflation structure except the bull market are homeopathic, the transactions under other structures are not homeopathic.
Follow the "trend" of individual stocks
The trend of bulls and bears only determines the general trend of the market, but under any market structure, individual stocks will rise and fall. It's just that most of the stocks under the bull market structure are rising, which is only a high probability of rising, and it doesn't mean that there are no stocks that have fallen. Moreover, we finally choose to operate a certain stock, so when we choose to buy, the trend of the stock will also rise. Otherwise, even if the bull market is structural, if the "potential" of individual stocks is not smooth, it is still easy to lose money.
The main reason for the stock price rise (the stock price rise is driven by the purchase of funds)
The power of the stock price rise itself comes from the continuous buying of funds. Therefore, since there are funds to continue to buy and the stock price is also rising, this kind of stock will definitely not end its rising structure in the short term. Because if this fund that continues to buy is not raised later, how can it make a profit, in order to help retail investors lift their sedan chairs? This is obviously unrealistic. Since the main capital of this position has been bought substantially, then one day in the future, the stock price will definitely be raised to a certain high level, at least higher than the current price.
Inertia principle of trend motion
There is a word in physics called "inertia", which means that an object is in a certain state of motion under the action of external force. If the external force disappears, the object will continue its own motion for a period of time and then change its state of motion. The movement of objects is like this, and so is the running trend of stock prices. Even if the supply exceeds demand in the rising stage and the transaction is unbalanced, the short-term stock price will continue to rise for some time.
I like trading on the left and buying at the bottom.
There are two kinds of traders in the trading process, one is risk-averse and prefers to buy after the trend is formed. This kind of trader is called right-handed trader. Another kind of bold and radical likes to buy down in the process of operation, that is, although stocks can make money by buying up, they choose to buy at the bottom without reversing the downward trend. This kind of person is called a left trader. Therefore, for the bargain-hunting situation of the traders on the left, because the downward trend has not changed at this time, or it only belongs to the downward relay, in this case, if you buy, the stock price will easily continue the downward trend.
Follow the small "potential" but carry the big "potential"
Some investors said that I chose to buy it after watching the stock price go up. But why didn't I make any money soon after I bought it, and the stock price continued to fall, and it fell more than a little, thinking that it was not the result of the callback at all, and it was not a loss in the end. So now I want to ask you which "potential" you are following. Let's take a look at the following case: As can be seen from the upper part of the figure, the stock obviously formed an upward trend, but it didn't take long for it to continue to fall. Let's go back to the big structure of the stock, and the position of the stock at that time was only a temporary rebound formed by the down relay. This is the so-called "small potential" but against the big "potential" structure.
Going up is afraid of heights, and going down is mean.
Some investors always have this mentality. For many stocks that have gone up, I always hope to fall down and not buy them, because in his view, the stock price has already gone up very high, and it must fall sharply to continue to rise. However, the stock price has never plummeted, and it continues to rise after a short-term callback every time, hitting record highs. However, after suddenly rising to a high level and plunging, investors are not only not afraid, but also happy, thinking that the chips are cheaper after the plunge, which gives them a chance to get on the bus. But investors don't know that the power system of the car that just got on the bus is damaged and has been going backwards.
Following the trend is not an empty talk. What potential does this potential represent? Is it weekly trend or daily trend? Or the 30-minute trend? Or a five-minute trend? If there is no level, it is useless to say that the trend is rogue. Why? Ordinary investors can't follow the trend because they don't understand the trend. A stock that is obviously bought according to the daily trend will be sold if it can't stand a 30-minute decline. Then the subsequent rise has nothing to do with her. If the daily downward trend is bought after five minutes of rising, then the subsequent decline is a loss. So ordinary investors. If you must follow suit, you must buy at what price and sell at what price. This is the trend.
Homeopathic trading is simple to say, but difficult to do, Ben.
The trend of the level is to follow the trend itself, that is, to follow the trend in the true sense, to follow the impermanent trend. Furthermore, it is not a question of what level to follow, but what level of trend you choose to follow. It is not difficult to understand why we should look at the picture in this way in large, medium and small cycles or levels, and finally implement the operation in this cycle or level. If we leave this understanding and look at the picture from three levels, there will often be conflicts. For example, children follow levels, and levels follow advanced levels. Then if you don't operate at the secondary level, you may face the dilemma of falling at the secondary level, rising at the current level and falling at the senior level. In the case of adjacent levels, there is no need to pay attention to the trend of high positions, and vice versa.
However, when the trend structure of this level develops at the trading point, we go to the low-level trend structure to grasp the development of this level segment, and then determine the process of this level trend structure. The trend structure of this level is a high-level segment, and the trend structure of the second level is still based on the current trading point. This is a trend synthesis and trend tracking, and it doesn't matter who you go with. After synthesis, which direction is which direction. This direction is not the so-called up and down, but an angular trajectory movement.
Here, you can not only follow the trend by looking at the trading chart, but also because the bread here contains material resources, financial resources and your own cognitive power, so to put it bluntly, this trend is that you will follow what level you reach.
I'm glad to answer this question. I entered the China A-share market in 2003. Most people can't follow the trend because they trade too frequently and don't know how to wait for short positions. Because the real trend can't exist every day, price changes and long-term movement in one direction need a lot of money to promote it, so it is difficult for ordinary investors to really follow suit.
In addition, as an ordinary trader, subjective emotions and opinions are usually subjective judgments on the market, rather than objective actions based on the information fed back by the market, so it is easy to act against the trend.
The above two points are the main reasons why ordinary investors cannot follow suit.
Why can't many investors follow suit?
We should look at this problem dialectically. Some investors don't know what homeopathy is. This is a cognitive problem. Some investors already know that they are going against the trend, but they can't control themselves. This is a behavior problem.
On the road of investment, homeopathy is divided into cycles. For example, it will fall for a whole year, but it will rise for several months. At this time, are you going to follow the market for a whole year without operation? Or seize the opportunity of structural rise in those months. Many people are stunned by this problem! Simply comb it.
First, let's set a standard for homeopathy. Everyone has a different definition of homeopathy, so we might as well define it from a technical point of view. Suppose that when an index or stock stands on the 20-day line, the large and small moving averages begin to bond and diverge upwards. Our operation is called following suit. On the contrary, it is against the trend. At this time, our homeopathic basis is "daily level +20-day line", so that we can know when it is homeopathic, when it is contrarian, when it can be operated, and when it should be light or short, so that it can be justified. With standards, we can only rely on implementation. Of course, the standards should be set by ourselves, combining the market and their own real situation.
In addition, let's talk about the second point. We already know that we are going against the trend, but we have been slow to change. We are always lucky and want to play small probability events. This is a test of human nature, belonging to the category of behavioral risk, and it is impossible to combine knowledge with action. So how to overcome it? There are many ways. In the final analysis, it is your own experience to overcome your greed, ignorance and doubt. A concrete way is to write a reflection diary every day, record and repeatedly read out your behaviors that you can't do with the trend, motivate yourself through behavioral hints and psychological hints, and make the trend become your habit and blend into your blood.
This is a great question. I hope more people can see this question and everyone's answer. If you are still confused in the futures market and don't know where the road is, I really hope that by answering the landlord's questions, more people will understand the true meaning of homeopathic trading.
First, let's define homeopathic trading. Homeopathic trading contains two core elements, namely "shun" and "potential", where "shun" represents trading behavior and "potential" represents market characteristics.
Shun's biggest opponent in the transaction is Inverse; The biggest trick is "prediction"; The most self-righteous performance is "guessing". "Shun" means to follow the original trajectory. For example, if you quickly roll down a stone from the top of the mountain, the thorns on the road will be crushed by the stone, but if you hit it against the direction of the stone rolling, you will either be seriously injured or die (big damage or explosion). Therefore, the ultimate behavior of taking advantage of the trend is to follow.
"Potential" can only be defined as the "potential" after the price form appears, so "potential" is mostly generated on the right side. Therefore, price-sensitive people are very resistant to "potential", and the accurate/perfect entry point is not something that "potential" can give.
To sum up, pigs can fly when they fly, no matter whether they are heavy or light.
Secondly, ordinary retail investors' well-intentioned lies or excuses for not taking advantage of the trend lead to the cognition of inaction. You will hear what many ordinary retail investors say most about the trend: I know the trend trading is good, but I can't judge the trend. But in reality, this is not the reason why people don't do trends. The root cause is actually the "prejudice" against the price. Too high to chase, too low to empty.
From the psychological point of view, such trading behavior is "love takes advantage", "lack of pattern" and "ignorance of trial and error". Any price is an intraday high, but the daily line is the second highest and the weekly line is the low. Daily concentration in trading: the trend comes, follow suit, the callback is swept away, stop chasing up, and then fly. Or the trend comes, follow the trend, make money, pull it back, and take profits quickly. The fish head was eaten and the fish body was gone.
Thirdly, homeopathic trading is too simple and anyone can do it, but it makes more retail investors doubt its correctness. Everyone is born with the nature of pursuing uniqueness. They don't believe that simple things are valuable, but they firmly believe that mysterious and complicated methods are spiritual. If a system is so difficult for you to learn and sounds, will it be easy for you to use it? Definitely not. The correct direction is to take the road of simplicity, give up looking for the "holy grail" and improve continuous implementation.
Finally, to borrow a word from a master trader: the trend is like a path in a dense fog, and you may not see it clearly ten meters away. What does it matter? As long as you can see the way clearly. As long as you keep your feet on the ground and move forward step by step, you will definitely reach your destination.