According to the data of grain output published by the National Bureau of Statistics in June 5438+February 65438+February 0/kloc-0 in 2023, China's corn output reached 289 million tons, up 4.2% year-on-year. The main reason for the increase of corn yield in 2023 is the increase of planting area. Affected by the increase in domestic corn prices in 2022, China's corn planting area reached 44.2 million hectares in 2023, up 2.7% year-on-year, the highest since 20 15 years.
Considering the demand of feed and deep processing, it is estimated that the domestic corn consumption in 2023/24 will be 282,365,438+million tons, an increase of 4.5 million tons over last year. But the inventory pressure is still rising. According to Blake's data, the corn carry-over inventory in 2023/24 was 6.5438+0.8037 million tons, an increase of 27.69 million tons over the previous year. The inventory consumption rate was 63.89%, an increase of 8.93% over the previous year.
The overall pattern of domestic corn supply and demand tends to be loose, and the Futures Daily predicts that China's corn price will maintain a downward trend in 2024. Based on the above reasons, it is expected that the corn price trend will show a downward trend around the Spring Festival in 2024.
Factors affecting corn market
Climate is very important for the growth and harvest of agricultural products, and corn is no exception. Temperature, rainfall, sunshine time and other factors will affect the growth and yield of corn. Drought, flood, cold or hot weather conditions may lead to a decline in production, thus pushing up prices. Seasonal factors are also important, because corn is a seasonal crop, and the supply situation in different seasons will affect the market price.
Global supply and demand have a far-reaching impact on corn prices. The increase of global food demand, especially from population growth and aquaculture, will promote the increase of corn demand. At the same time, the supply is affected by international trade policy, agricultural policy of the national government and the fluctuation of corn production. Therefore, the global supply and demand balance is very important for corn prices.