In the corn market, corn has ushered in new changes!
So, what specific changes have taken place in the domestic pig, corn, soybean meal and egg market? Today is165438+1October 10. Let's have a look!
First, the price of pigs fell under pressure 13.8%!
In the month of 1 1, the pig price continued to decline at the end of 1, especially in the first two days, the pig price showed a "big drop" trend, and the pig price rebounded, and the average price had dropped to the level before the National Day. Due to the continuation and superposition of the market's pessimism about the later demand, the supply side has gradually improved, and the pressure of weak market fluctuation still exists, and the pig price will remain under pressure in the short term.
The price quoted by slaughter enterprises shows that the average price of live pigs in China dropped to 24.43 yuan/kg on June 5,438+065,438+10, compared with 28.34 yuan/kg at the end of June 5,438+00, and the cumulative decline in this round of pig prices reached 3.9 1 yuan/kg.
At present, the price of pigs in Northeast and Northwest China has generally fallen below the "12 yuan era", and the market continues to decline. The price of pigs in southern producing areas also fell below 13 yuan/kg, and the prices of pigs in East China, Central China and Southwest China will soon bottom out 12 yuan/kg! The price of live pigs fell back to the level in late September, and the price increase of 10 was "spit" overnight!
Personally, this round of pig prices fell sharply and the demand was not smooth, which forced the downward performance of pig prices to be more prominent! In June 5438+ 10, the price of live pigs rose, which led to the rebound of pork prices in the market. However, the post-holiday consumption support is insufficient and the downstream resistance is great. The delivery pressure of white pigs in domestic mainstream slaughterhouses has increased sharply, and the order volume of slaughterhouses has continued to deteriorate!
In the short term, the spread of standard fertilizer dropped significantly. In June, the price of big pigs was strong at 5438+ 10, which pushed the standard pig market higher. However, due to poor demand, the big pigs just need the market to turn bad, the price continues to fall, the price difference between standard fertilizers narrows, the breeding end is depressed, and the sentiment of slaughter increases sharply, which also improves the supply pattern of pigs!
In addition, the pressure of stable masks in China has increased sharply recently, and the demand for pigs to be slaughtered, transported abroad and downstream is obviously limited. In particular, the demand for catering in many places has dropped sharply, and the pork in the wholesale market is not smooth, which has obvious restrictions on consumption!
However, from a rational point of view, in the month of 1 1, the pressure on pig prices dropped sharply, which also eased the pressure on the pig market at the end of the year. At the same time, the pig market is going down, and the downstream consumption level may heat up, which is conducive to the upcoming centralized pickling in the south! However, due to the large scale of slaughter at the end of the year, farmers are reminded to be cautious, avoid blindly pressing or selling, maintain a good rhythm of slaughter, and follow the trend!
Second, the prices of soybean meal and eggs fluctuate strongly!
In the domestic soybean meal market, the soybean meal market continued to fluctuate at a high level recently, but the fundamentals showed a strong fluctuation trend! According to statistics, at present, the average national soybean meal price is maintained at 57 18 yuan/ton, up by 37 yuan/ton from the previous day. The mainstream oil plants in Guangdong market offer 5580 yuan/ton, while the mainstream oil plants in Shandong offer 57 yuan10 yuan/ton! The soybean meal market continues to be stable and strong!
The high fluctuation of soybean meal market is rooted in the dual effects of low soybean inventory and low soybean import in domestic mainstream oil plants. Due to the shortage of soybean meal supply, oil plants are more motivated to raise prices, and the soybean meal market in mainstream areas in China has increased by 20~40 yuan/ton! According to institutional analysis, the stock of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil plants last week was only1740,000 tons, 20,000 tons less than the previous week and 376,000 tons less than the same period last year. The supply pressure of soybean meal is great, the raw materials of enterprises are insufficient, the operating rate remains low, and some oil plants stop working. However, due to the decline in the water level of the Mississippi River in the United States and the increase in transportation difficulties, the domestic soybean entry cycle may be delayed and will be supported in the short term.
In the egg market, this week, due to the poor follow-up of consumption, the demand in the downstream market has cooled down, and the price of eggs in domestic production and marketing areas has fallen sharply. The price of eggs in the mainstream wholesale market in Beijing dropped by 0.6 yuan/kg, and the price of eggs in the production and marketing market gradually dropped to about 5.56~5.72 yuan/kg!
However, with the sharp drop in the price of eggs, the market demand has gradually picked up, residents' enthusiasm for purchasing has been boosted, eggs in the downstream market have been accelerated, and traders' enthusiasm for getting goods has become stronger! However, due to the lack of egg inventory in the domestic production and marketing market at this stage, it is more difficult for traders to purchase smoothly, and the bullish sentiment in the market is heating up, and the domestic egg price shows a strong fluctuation trend!
At present, the average price of eggs in the sales area has risen to about 5.75 yuan/kg, while the delivery price of eggs in the production area has also rebounded to 5.63 yuan/kg, showing a weak increase in egg prices! Due to the downward trend of domestic laying hens this month, the newly opened laying hens in June 5438+065438+ 10 gradually decreased. Due to the weak performance of chicken seedlings in July, the number of newly opened laying hens this month is insufficient, and the laying capacity is still at a disadvantage. However, due to the high market price of soybean meal, the market price is quite firm. It is expected that the domestic egg price will be strongly supported at the bottom in the short term, and the price will remain high!
Third, corn has ushered in new changes!
The autumn corn harvest was completed in June 5438+065438+ 10, and the northeast region entered the final stage. However, in North China and Huanghuai areas, with the tide corn drying one after another, the quality of corn is high, grass-roots farmers are reluctant to sell it, and it is more difficult for traders to purchase food sources. The circulation of spot corn in the market is also affected by the mask problem, and the food sources of deep processing enterprises are in short supply. Recently, corn prices in Shandong and North China have been rising continuously, while lemons in Shandong.
At present, due to the poor quantity in Shandong market, the inventory of enterprises continues to be consumed, and the enthusiasm for replenishing inventory is strong. However, the problem of masks in many places has further weakened the sentiment of grain enterprises to lower prices. In Shandong, corn prices are still expected to rise! In the Northeast market, recently, many grain enterprises in Northeast China raised their prices substantially, and some factories raised their prices by 40~60 yuan/ton!
On the one hand, due to the deviation of the enthusiasm for selling grain at the grass-roots level, the cautious operation of traders and drying towers, the tight supply of grain in the market, the insufficient supply of grain for enterprises, the problem of masks in some areas, the strong enthusiasm of factories to build warehouses, and the obvious improvement in demand, which also led to the increase in market food prices; On the other hand, the corn price difference between Northeast China and Shandong and North China is increasing. The price of mainstream corn in Shandong hovers around 2830~3 120 yuan/ton, while the price of dry food in Northeast China remains around 2550~2700 yuan/ton. The regional price difference is getting bigger and bigger, and the support for the diversion of grain sources in Northeast China is getting stronger and stronger. Some local traders and deep processing enterprises in Northeast China are worried about the diversion of grain sources.
Therefore, under the long-short game, the new trend of domestic spot corn price is more and more obvious. Personally, due to the complex international environment and the improvement of domestic corn demand, this year, multi-party acquirers will focus on buying corn, which will further drive the spot corn market to strengthen! In addition, in terms of feed raw materials, the higher prices of soybean meal and bran also indirectly supported the strength of the corn market. The price of corn at the end of this year may make grain holders happy!
Warning! Pig prices fell under pressure 13.8%, soybean meal and egg prices fluctuated strongly, and corn ushered in new changes! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, the pictures are from the internet, and the content is for reference only!