(1) Macroeconomy
Experience shows that steel consumption is obviously different in different countries at different stages of development and different industrial structures. Generally speaking, the change of steel consumption intensity is divided into the following four stages:
As far as domestic macro-economy is concerned, steel production and sales have a strong correlation with GDP and investment in fixed assets. A country's steel consumption is closely related to its national economic development and industrialization process. Generally speaking, steel production and consumption are positively correlated with GDP.
(b) cost factor
1, iron ore
Iron ore is the most important raw material for steel production. China's iron ore resources are insufficient and unevenly distributed. Among the proven iron ore reserves, the availability is limited, the grade is low and the mining conditions are poor, forcing domestic steel producers to import ore from Brazil, Australia and India. In the international iron ore market dominated by the buyer's market, iron ore giants control pricing power by this. At present, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto Mining and Brazil's Vale World monopolize 74% of the world's iron ore trade, while China's iron and steel enterprises have more than 50% dependence on imported iron ore.
Iron ore pricing includes two systems: spot (domestic iron ore and imported iron ore from India and other countries) and long-term contract (imported iron ore from the international big three)
2. Coke
Coking coal resources are also one of the important raw materials for iron and steel enterprises, and the stable supply of coking coal is a necessary condition for normal production of iron and steel enterprises. The regional distribution of coking coal in China is uneven. The proven recoverable reserves of coking coal are nearly 40 billion tons, including 8.4 billion tons of main coking coal and 5,654.38+tons of fat coal, mainly concentrated in Shanxi, while the coastal provinces with rapid iron and steel industry development have less resources. Coking coal, especially main coking coal and fat coal, is insufficient and needs to be imported to meet the needs of ironmaking. In order to protect their own environment, western countries cut coal production greatly, thus intensifying the competition for coke resources in the world market.
3, scrap steel
Scrap steel is one of the important raw materials for iron and steel production, and there are three main sources. First, the scrap steel produced by iron and steel enterprises in the production process; The second is the processing scrap steel produced in the production process of industrial and mining enterprises; Three, scrap depreciation from social production, life, national defense and other waste materials. Due to the small amount of scrap steel resources accumulated in China, the iron and steel industry has developed rapidly, and the scrap steel resources per ton of steel output are very low, making China a big importer of scrap steel in the world. With the rapid development, structural adjustment and product upgrading of China iron and steel industry, the demand for scrap steel will increase year by year. However, the current supply is seriously insufficient, and it is still difficult to alleviate the contradiction of the shortage of scrap steel resources in China in the short term.
4. Shipping rates
China needs to import a lot of iron ore by sea. China imports 46% of the world's iron ore, 50% of which depends on shipping, but China's iron ore shipping capacity only accounts for 4% of the world's iron ore. The passive situation of transportation capacity makes China steel enterprises have no pricing power in the pricing of shipping prices. In order to alleviate this situation, a large number of enterprises such as Angang, Shougang, WISCO, Baosteel and Tangshan Iron and Steel imported iron ore by sea in 2008, and most of them have locked in long-term contracts.
(3) supply and demand factors
1, supply factor
There are a large number of production enterprises in the low-end product market of China iron and steel industry, but there are relatively few production enterprises in the high value-added product market because of the high requirements for technology, capital and equipment. From the market as a whole, there is a slight overcapacity in China's steel industry at present, and the overcapacity of some varieties is more serious, and there is an inherent requirement for industry integration in the market.
2. Demand factors
Steel is widely used in construction, machinery, light industry, automobile, container, shipbuilding, railway, petrochemical and other industries. Among them, buildings occupy half of the country.
(d) international trade factors
1, import and export policy
China's steel export policy mainly embodies two intentions: one is to promote the development of steel enterprises, improve the international competitiveness of products, and promote the merger and reorganization of steel enterprises; The second is to improve the export structure of products and promote the adjustment of the industrial structure of the steel industry. Through the guidance of policies, change the growth mode of iron and steel industry, from focusing on quantity growth to improving quality, increasing high value-added products and reducing consumption; Optimize the structure of steel products and develop high-end plates and high-efficiency steel products.
2. Exchange rate
Most of the world's metal trading and futures trading are priced in dollars. The depreciation of the dollar makes the price of steel denominated in dollars rise relatively, which will affect the consumption and supply of steel in the world. Changes in international prices will affect the domestic market. At present, due to the sharp depreciation of the won and the ruble, the export competitiveness of its steel products has increased, which poses a great threat to the competitiveness of China's steel products in the international market.
3. Anti-dumping and countervailing investigations
Due to the deterioration of the global real economy and the serious decline of global trade, trade protectionism has recently risen. At present, one third of the anti-dumping cases in the world are against China. Unlike the anti-dumping investigation, which focuses on enterprises, the objects of countervailing investigation include the government and enterprises, mainly aiming at the government's economic policies and institutional arrangements. Anti-dumping and countervailing investigations of iron and steel products generally involve huge trade volume and numerous enterprises, which must be seriously dealt with.
(5) Environmental protection policy
The development of iron and steel industry in China is restricted by energy consumption and pollutant discharge management. During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, China's pollution control still adopts total control, and the environmental load of iron and steel industry is heavy. Generally related to these reasons. Once something goes wrong, there will be problems in the steel industry. If you know more, you will know the price increase.