According to Brazilian media reports, at the LAAD held in Brazil in 2023, the Brazilian army is in contact with China's weapons industry, preparing to import a batch of VT-4A main battle tanks and VN-20 heavy infantry fighting vehicles from China before 2040. The specific purchase volume is about 65 main battle tanks and 78 infantry fighting vehicles, and other details are not clear at present.
So, what is the story about the Brazilian Army's intention to import main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles from China? How reliable is it? What we are most concerned about is whether this transaction can finally take place?
Let's start with the first question. According to the information disclosed by the Brazilian media, at the end of 2022, the General Staff of the Brazilian Army approved Decree No.877, allowing the Brazilian Army to purchase tracked vehicles, namely 65 main battle tanks and 78 infantry fighting vehicles.
The reason is that the Brazilian Army thinks that the performance of its crawler-type combat equipment is extremely backward-at present, the main battle equipment is Leopard1A1A5 made in Germany and M60A3TTS made in the United States. Even in South America, the Chilean army next door to Brazil has received 140 Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks, while the Venezuelan army is equipped with 190 T-72B.
The Brazilian army believes that it is time to replace these tanks at hand. Therefore, the Brazilian Army actually began to consider replacing tanks and armored vehicles from 20 19. After three years of consideration, the relevant scheme was finally completed, and the technical indicators of new tracked vehicles such as main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles scheduled to be modified for the Brazilian Army were determined.
This is the origin of the Brazilian Army's Decree No.877 at the end of 2022, and it is also the origin of the rumor that the Brazilian Army will buy main battle tanks and heavy infantry fighting vehicles from northern industries.
The ins and outs of the matter have been clarified. How reliable is it? In fact, at least from the relevant information disclosed by the Brazilian media, this transaction is very reliable:
On the one hand, looking at the technical indicators put forward by the Brazilian army, the Brazilian army estimates that it is due to the requirements of technical inheritance, considering the objective situation that Brazil is full of tropical rainforests. The technical index of the main battle tank is that the total combat weight does not exceed 50 tons, and it can be transported by road with Leopard 1A5 and M60A3TTS, which has certain maneuverability in tropical rain forest areas.
Secondly, tanks are required to be equipped with 120mm main guns, which is the standard caliber of western tanks and requires tanks to have good fire control performance. This good fire control performance estimation refers to the dual-channel independent thermal imaging of the third-generation main battle tank, plus the hunting and killing ability of the gunner, which is the basic operation of the third-generation main battle tank.
For the requirements of infantry fighting vehicles, the Brazilian army put forward a wonderful requirement. Infantry fighting vehicles must share the chassis with the main battle tanks in order to achieve universality in maintenance. And the total combat weight does not exceed 45 tons. At the same time, it needs to be equipped with a cannon with a caliber of not less than 25 mm, and it has the ability to carry 7 infantry. This is a typical heavy-step battle based on tank chassis.
On the other hand, looking at the equipment availability of the Brazilian Army, in fact, these equipment indicators proposed by the Brazilian Army are naturally a bit inconsistent with the equipment that NATO Group can take out at present:
There are only two main battle tanks that NATO can take out, one is Leopard 2A7/A8 of Rheinmetall and the other is M 1A2 of the United States.
Considering the fourth-generation main battle tank project promoted by various countries, KF-5 1 and M 1X have been added. The total weight of these two spot and two futures is not less than 50 tons. Of course, it is also possible to lose weight by force, so basically, the level of protection and the degree of informationization must be one of them.
Not to mention the demand of Brazilian army to purchase infantry fighting vehicles, which require infantry fighting vehicles to share chassis with main battle tanks. Neither American nor German infantry fighting vehicles share the chassis with the main battle tanks, and both M2A2 and Puma are dedicated chassis.
Outside the NATO group, South Korea's K2 tank is basically the only main battle tank that can be sold in the western world, but the total combat weight of this type of main battle tank also exceeds 50 tons. At the same time, K2 1 infantry fighting vehicle and K2 main battle tank made in Korea have no general chassis, which excludes the whole western group at once.
In fact, this technical index proposed by the Brazilian Army is in full compliance with China and Russia:
What Russia can take out is the T- 14 Amata, and there is also a T- 15 infantry fighting vehicle on the chassis of the T- 14. Of course, you can kill T-90M and BMPT by force. It's just that BMPT, as a tank support vehicle, does not have infantry carrying capacity.
At the same time, in the 1990s, Russia/Ukraine had a plan to replace the T-72 main battle tank with the western 120mm tank guns, which were mainly used for export, and the Brazilian army could take them out for use if necessary. What's more, with the design of T- 14 tank, it is really necessary to switch to120mm tank gun. From a technical point of view, the problem is not big.
As for China's weapons industry? It also happens that VT-4A main battle tank and VN-20 infantry fighting vehicle are ready-made. Needless to say, the technical performance of the former has the level of the late third-generation main battle tank, and its operational performance can just meet the requirements of the Brazilian army. VN-20 heavy infantry fighting vehicle is developed based on VT-4A main battle tank chassis, and the relevant technical indicators can also meet the requirements of the Brazilian Army.
Of course, our problem is the same as that of Russia. The caliber of the main guns of both China and Russia is 125mm, but we also have a reserve of 120mm tank guns. However, compared with Russian 2A82 tank gun, we need to replace VT-4A main battle tank with 120mm full set of bombs, and the technical difficulty seems to be slightly higher. However, with the current technical reserve level of China tank industry, it is really necessary to change guns, and there is no technical obstacle.
What's more, compared with Russia, if China's ordnance supplies equipment to Brazil, it also has the following advantages:
First of all, our VT-4A is at least reliable, and it will be sold to hundreds of cars soon. However, Russia's T- 14 is still futures. Only the 27th Brigade of the First Guards Tank Corps has a battalion, and it seems that this battalion didn't participate in the war at all, and it used the T-90M when it participated in the war. This means that if the Brazilian army is in urgent need of equipment, at least we have some advantages in reliability.
Secondly, compared with T- 14, the performance of VT-4A is very balanced, and it is a typical strong attack and weak defense tank-all protection skills focus on how to ensure the safety of tank occupants, and the turret protection is not strong, which means that it has a relatively large protection weakness in the face of anti-tank fire.
VT-4A is more similar to the traditional "main battle tank", and the protection of the whole vehicle is very balanced, which can defend against the direct shooting of the third-generation main battle tank using armor-piercing bullets. Of course, both VT-4A 1 and T- 14 have active defense systems.
Finally, there are factors other than technical performance. If Brazil buys VT-4A, it is actually backed by China's national strength, and the corresponding Russia will not have this ability. Normally, the China Navy can send a fleet to visit and cruise the Atlantic Ocean in the future. When will the Russian navy have this ability?
So these factors add up, and we really want to export VT-4A main battle tanks and VN-20 infantry fighting vehicles to Brazil. Technical advantages are obvious, technical obstacles can be overcome, and there are also some political bonus factors. Therefore, at least from our point of view, our export of army main battle equipment to Brazil is very reliable from a technical point of view.
The ins and outs of the matter are clear. From a technical point of view, it is quite reliable for Brazil to buy our VT-4A and VN-20. Can you buy it? Ivan's feeling is actually a bit variable:
After all, on the one hand, the Brazilian army's purchase of such equipment is still greatly affected by the domestic economy. For example, the wheeled self-propelled assault gun project of the Brazilian Army mentioned last year was originally intended to buy our ST- 1BR, and later it was changed to the Italian Sagittarius assault gun.
After buying the Sagittarius assault gun, I first said that I would buy more than 200 vehicles, and then I bought two water tests in 2023. As a result, I said I wouldn't buy it now, and the original 200 cars were cut into less than 100. This means that Brazil has some big variables in equipment procurement. If the domestic economic situation is not good, it may not be purchased, which will become the biggest variable in the procurement contract of Brazilian Army crawler equipment.
On the other hand, the procurement time of equipment stipulated by the Brazilian army is indeed too long. The requirement is to complete the procurement task before 2040, with a full 17 years. It's not surprising that something happened in the middle. In fact, Davan privately believes that it is hard to say whether the Brazilian army wants to buy the third-generation combat equipment or the fourth-generation main battle equipment while walking because the Brazilian army has stipulated such a long procurement time and the specified equipment technical data is quite wonderful.
This difference in equipment positioning may determine the result of equipment procurement. Maybe NATO finally produced the fourth-generation main battle tank, or Russia's Amata main battle tank is really mature, and its performance is higher than our third-generation main battle, so it's hard to say.
However, in any case, at least so far, we have taken the lead in this crawler equipment procurement contract issued by the Brazilian Army. Coupled with political factors such as our relationship with Brazil, Davan thinks this contract is very important, and hopes that our weapons industry can win this round of bidding and that our main battle tanks can sell well. We will continue to pay attention to this military trade contract in the future.