Take Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, as an example. Up to now, Brazil has pre-sold 30.8% Arabica coffee beans and 65,438+04% Robusta coffee beans in the new season.
The increase in demand has also led to an increase in the price of coffee.
Coffee futures traded in new york Futures Market surged 8% in March, with an average price of $65,438 +0. 16. The standard Arabica coffee futures for delivery in May rose by 65,438+05% in the past month, and the trading price in April was $65,438+0.20 (the futures contract indicates people's expectation of future coffee prices).
COVID-19's popularity spread rapidly around the world, but the increasing demand for coffee from consumers pushed up the price of this commodity. MaximillianCopestake and Stevepollard, world commodity brokers, pointed out in an interview with American Consumer News and Business Channel.
Global hoarding of coffee
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During the epidemic, people got coffee in various forms. Some people choose to continue to queue up outside the cafe, while others choose to stock up in supermarkets or online stores. Many coffee roasters have started to provide free delivery service.
Jesserraub, sales manager of Ruby, Coffee and Roasters in Wisconsin, USA, said: We found that a large number of customers ordered directly from our online store instead of picking up the goods in person, and we thought we should provide free home delivery service.
Copestake said that under the epidemic situation, the consumption pattern has changed on a large scale, from going out to spending at home.
One of the main reasons for the continuous increase in international coffee prices is that dealers and consumers in some countries began to buy and hoard coffee in panic for fear that coffee supply would be interrupted or difficult to replenish during the epidemic.
There is evidence that all countries are buying coffee in advance because of the expected supply interruption in the future. Samuel Berman, assistant macro commodity economist of Kaitou, pointed out that according to Reuters, coffee importers in traditional coffee consuming countries in Europe and America hoarded a large number of coffee beans and ordered the original orders at least one month in advance to avoid supply chain interruption caused by the closure of COVID-19.
The hoarding fever of this coffee is more intuitive in data.
According to the data of IRI, a Chicago market research institute, compared with the same period last year, French coffee expenditure increased by 34% and 6%, while Italian coffee expenditure increased by 29%.
Worried about the supply chain
Hoarders are not alarmist.
In fact, due to traffic blockades around the world, the supply of coffee from manufacturing, transportation to retail has been interrupted.
Bakers and traders expect supply to be interrupted at any time and actively hoard. The London-based coffee distributor said that some large roasters are seeking spot transactions, and some orders can't even be completed.
According to the global coffee industry chain, the recent report of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) of 49 coffee importing and exporting member countries shows that the current demand exceeds the output, the shipping and harvesting chain is interrupted, the supply is temporarily insufficient, and the price rises in the short term.
According to the report on Colombian coffee industry recently released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), so far, Colombian coffee production has not been affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, but there are still some concerns during the coffee picking season from April to May, especially the shortage of coffee pickers in the producing areas.
It is reported that during the coffee picking season, local coffee plantations in Colombia usually employ Venezuelan temporary workers, but the border between Colombia and Venezuela has been closed, which means it is difficult to recruit people. In addition, the USDA is worried that the epidemic situation in the coffee-producing areas of Colombia may deteriorate at any time.
Despite the immunization and quarantine measures, it is extremely difficult for coffee farmers and their employers to ensure the smooth picking, primary processing and transportation of coffee this year as in previous years, and it is extremely difficult to provide transfer and housing under sanitary conditions for about 6,543,800 workers. Robert Velez, head of Colombian Growers Federation, said frankly: The current price is very attractive to us, but at this price, we are faced with logistics problems, COVID-19 and inner fears. &; nbsp
In addition, in the coming weeks, the suspension of global shipping may bring more pressure to the supply chain. Priscilladaniel, a senior coffee distributor in DRWakefield, said that many goods don't take the usual two weeks, but wait a month to fill the cabinet.
Coffee importers from the United States say that American roasters are also speeding up delivery from other sources such as China and the United States.
At present, the shortage of freight containers in Europe and America has reached tens of thousands, and shippers are still facing the quarantine of port personnel shortage.
The future is uncertain.
The price of coffee beans rose during the epidemic, which is good news for farmers in major coffee producing areas in the world.
In fact, the continuous decline in coffee prices in recent years has brought them huge losses.
As many of the 25 million coffee farmers in the world are unable to pay their operating costs, they face livelihood risks. According to ICO data, since 20 16 years, the price of coffee has decreased by 30% compared with the average level in the past 10 years. Although the price of Arabica coffee exceeded 1. 12 in March this year, it was lower than that in 206558.
Under this trend, although the epidemic will lead to an increase in coffee prices in the short term, the situation faced by coffee farmers may deteriorate again in the future.
After the initial sharp increase in demand, in the next few weeks and months, the proportion of demand will drop, because consumers will reduce inventory. ICO admitted in the report.
Berman also said that if people stay at home, coffee shops may close and overall demand will drop.
In 2020, if the world economy continues to decline, the sales of coffee beans will also be hit.
The ICO report analyzes the data of 20 major coffee consuming countries. According to the model, for every decrease in GDP of 1%, coffee consumption will decrease by 0.95%, which is equivalent to about 1.6 million bags of coffee beans. Price-sensitive consumers will replace higher choices with cheaper coffee.