1. Supply factors
1. Output adjustment in producing countries:
As the output area of oil is relatively concentrated, the output adjustment of oil producing countries, especially net oil exporting countries, has a very direct impact on oil prices. The most prominent of these is the influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). At present, the member countries of the organization control more than 78% of the world's oil reserves, and the crude oil they provide meets about 4% of the global demand. Under normal circumstances, OPEC aims to ensure the stability of oil prices in the international oil market by eliminating harmful and unnecessary price fluctuations, ensure that all member countries can obtain stable oil revenues under any circumstances, and provide sufficient, economical and long-term oil supply for oil-consuming countries. It is an important force to ensure the stability of crude oil prices. However, once it changes crude oil production for some reasons, its impact on crude oil prices will be long-term.
2. Influence of war factors
Because all kinds of industrial products with crude oil as raw materials affect all aspects of society, the consumption is very huge, so the crude oil reserves of all countries in the world are measured in days, which makes the oil price fluctuate greatly once the war breaks out and affects the normal production and transportation of crude oil. In addition, the retaliatory behavior after the war and the threatening behavior in the war often affect the oil price. Historically, this situation was mainly concentrated in the Middle East. For example, after the third Middle East War, OPEC gradually strengthened its right to speak on crude oil pricing by taking advantage of its oil reserve share, so that the price of crude oil rose from less than $22 to $3 a barrel. After the defeat of the Arab League in the fourth Middle East War, OPEC even raised the price of crude oil from $3 to more than $13 in retaliation for the support of Europe and the United States to Israel, which triggered the first oil crisis. In recent years, due to sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran, Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, an important crude oil transportation channel, and oil prices have fluctuated many times.
Second, demand factors
1. Global economic state
Oil is the blood of modern industrial society, on the one hand, it will affect the global economy. On the other hand, the global economy will also affect the price of crude oil in turn: when the global economy continues to prosper, the demand for crude oil will increase overall, and vice versa. Therefore, when the global economy encounters major problems, the price of crude oil will be greatly suppressed. For example, the historical peak of crude oil price appeared in mid-28, that is, on the eve of the full-scale financial tsunami. Since then, with the global economy being hit hard, crude oil price has never returned to the high of $147.
2. Global crude oil inventory changes
Although global crude oil inventory can only supply the global crude oil demand for several tens of days in general, the change of crude oil inventory can sensitively reflect the change of supply and demand in the global crude oil market. Once the inventory increases, it basically means that there is an oversupply of crude oil, and vice versa. And the price of crude oil will fluctuate for a short time. The most important and authoritative report in this respect is the relevant report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).