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Layout and trend analysis of scrap steel industry
There are generally three sources of scrap steel: self-produced scrap steel in the production process of iron and steel enterprises (including production recycling and non-production recycling); Processing scrap steel produced in the production process of industrial and mining enterprises; Depreciation and scrapping of steel materials such as social production, life and national defense, such as scrapped cars, ships, steel bridges and buildings.

According to their sources, the wastes are classified according to their weight and volume as follows:

1, the output of scrap steel shows an increasing trend.

According to the statistics of Scrap Steel Association, the total output of China's scrap steel resources will be 260 million tons in 2020, an increase of about 20 million year-on-year. Among them, steel enterprises produced 47.66 million tons of scrap steel.

The supply structure of social scrap steel resources has undergone fundamental changes, and nearly 100 million tons of scrap steel resources occupied by the original "strip steel" enterprises have been transferred to regular mainstream steel enterprises. The supply structure and flow direction of the scrap steel market have been optimized, and the scrap steel resources have been rationally utilized. According to industry experts' prediction, the output of scrap steel in China will exceed 300 million tons in 2030. The rapidly growing scrap steel resources will have an important impact on the technological structure, steel plant layout, resource consumption, energy consumption and carbon emissions of the steel industry.

Due to the tightening of policies, the import volume has gradually decreased.

In recent years, with the continuous improvement of domestic scrap quality and the continuous tightening of China's scrap import policy, for example, the policy requirements range from 20 18 12 3 1, scrap metal, scrap ships, scrap auto parts, smelting slag, industrial waste plastics, scrap CD-ROM scraps, scrap motors mainly based on copper recovery, scrap wires mainly based on aluminum recovery, etc.

Since July 1 20 19, the state has transferred eight kinds of solid wastes, such as scrap iron and steel, scrap copper and scrap aluminum, from the Catalogue of Unrestricted Imported Solid Wastes that can be used as raw materials to the Catalogue of Restricted Imported Solid Wastes that can be used as raw materials. In 20 18, the accumulated imported scrap steel was only 654.38 million tons. It will continue to decline in 2020, and the total import volume will be 27 1 10,000 tons, down 85.28% year-on-year.

In recent years, the consumption of scrap steel is increasing.

The unit consumption of scrap steel is the quality of scrap steel consumed per ton of crude steel. In China, the short-process steelmaking unit consumption fluctuates around 600kg/t, the long-process steelmaking unit consumption is around 100kg/t, and the comprehensive unit consumption fluctuates between100-150 kg/t.

According to the statistics of scrap steel industry, the consumption of scrap steel in China in 20 19 years was1950,000 tons, of which1800,000 tons was used as steelmaking raw material, accounting for 92.3%, and150,000 tons was used for casting, accounting for 7.7%. Among the scrap steel used as steelmaking raw materials, converter, electric furnace and intermediate frequency furnace consume 97 million tons, 5 1 10,000 tons and 32 million tons respectively, accounting for 53.8%, 28.5% and 1.7% respectively.

In 2020, the total consumption of steel-making scrap in China will be 230 million tons, an increase of140,000 tons year-on-year, an increase of 6%; The foundry enterprise is 20.25 million tons, and the others are about100000 tons. Generally speaking, the consumption of scrap steel in China has been rising in recent years.

The price of scrap steel soared.

According to my steel "Annual Report Analysis of Scrap Varieties in 20021year", on June 5438+0, 2020, the market was unanimously optimistic about the trend of post-holiday construction steel, worried about the future increase in mine prices, and steel mills all over the country actively stored scrap in winter, and the price of scrap was easy to rise but difficult to fall. Later, affected by public health emergencies, the inventory of finished products was seriously overstocked, reaching a record high, and the price dropped sharply, so did the price of scrap steel. Since April 2020, under the favorable stimulus of national policies, domestic enterprises have steadily resumed production and the industry has gradually returned to normal operation. Under the background of comprehensive resumption of work and production, the industry is running well and prices have rebounded sharply.

On June 5438+February 3, 2020, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the National Development and Reform Commission, the General Administration of Customs, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement. From June+10/October 1 day, 20265438, recycled steel raw materials meeting the standard of "recycled steel raw materials" can be imported freely. In this regard, Feng Helin, deputy secretary-general of China Scrap Application Association, said that scrap imports in the future may be restricted by three aspects: First, because the current policy has just been liberalized, most steel enterprises have not implemented supply channels, and it takes time to open up channels; Second, the change of foreign epidemic situation may have a negative impact on the channels and logistics of exporting countries, and the specific impact degree is difficult to predict; Thirdly, due to China's liberalization of imports, the market price of foreign scrap steel has surpassed that of China.

In 20021year, the demand for scrap steel in China once increased, the supply and demand of scrap steel market were in a tight balance, and the price of scrap steel also soared. According to Mysteel's preliminary calculation, the national scrap consumption in the first half of 2002139.72 million tons, an increase of 45.94 million tons or 48.99% over last year. 202 1, the price of scrap steel once exceeded 4000 yuan/ton. From August 9, 202 1 to August 13, the average scrap price was 3590 yuan/ton.

—— For more industry-related data, please refer to the Analysis Report on Market Demand and Investment Planning of China Scrap Industry by Prospective Industry Research Institute.