The import and export trade deficit of agricultural products has expanded rapidly, and domestic agriculture is facing more severe challenges

Agriculture is a basic industry related to the stability and healthy development of our country's national economy. Since 2004, the Central Committee’s No. 1 document every year has involved the “agriculture, rural areas and farmers” issues, which fully reflects the strategic intention of the Party Central Committee and the State Council to solve the “agriculture, rural areas and farmers” issues under the new situation and effectively promoted the modernization of the country. development of agriculture. Modern agriculture is a concept of large-scale agriculture. In the context of global economic integration, agricultural product trade plays an increasingly important role. The increased mobility of agricultural products between my country and other countries (regions) will have a profound impact on domestic economic development. After joining the World Trade Organization, my country's opening up to the outside world has been increasingly expanded and deepened, the correlation between domestic agriculture and world agriculture has been further strengthened, and agricultural product trade has also entered a new stage. However, judging from the current situation, the promotion effect of China's entry into the WTO on my country's agricultural exports has been significantly weakened by trade barriers and other factors, while the impact of agricultural imports has rapidly strengthened, and domestic agricultural development is facing more severe challenges.

Part 1 Analysis of the Current Situation of my country's Agricultural Products Import and Export Trade

In the six years after joining the WTO (2002-2007), the scale of my country's agricultural products trade continued to expand, with the total import and export value exceeding one year each year. The billion-dollar ladder. By 2007, my country's agricultural imports and exports amounted to US$77.57 billion, an increase of 23.1% over 2006, accounting for 3.6% of my country's total foreign trade imports and exports that year. Among them, exports were US$36.6 billion, an increase of 18%; imports exceeded US$40 billion for the first time, reaching US$40.97 billion, an increase of 28.1%.

1. The import and export trade situation of agricultural products has reversed, and trade deficit has become the norm

The development of my country’s export and import trade of agricultural products has shown obvious imbalance. In the six years after joining the WTO, the agricultural products China's exports increased by US$24.64 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 20.5%; during the same period, agricultural imports increased by US$30.98 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 26.5%, a significantly higher growth rate than exports.

The unbalanced development of exports and imports of agricultural products has directly led to the emergence of trade deficits in agricultural products. In 2002, my country's agricultural product trade maintained a surplus of US$3.31 billion. In 2003, the surge in agricultural product imports led to a trade deficit of US$490 million in agricultural product trade that year. By 2004, the trade deficit surged to US$8.49 billion. In 2005 and 2006, the trade deficit surged to US$8.49 billion. The trade deficit shrank rapidly in 2007, but the trade deficit in agricultural products expanded again to US$4.37 billion in 2007, a net increase of US$3.41 billion from the previous year (the same below), an increase of 3.6 times.

2. The general trade import and export of agricultural products is overall higher than that of processing trade

In 2007, agricultural trade was still dominated by general trade and processing trade. The total import and export volume of the two trade modes Together they account for more than 90% of the total import and export of agricultural products. my country's general trade of agricultural products is higher than processing trade in terms of scale and growth rate. In 2007, my country's general trade import and export of agricultural products was US$57.95 billion, an increase of 26.8%, which was 3.7 percentage points higher than the growth rate of import and export of agricultural products that year, accounting for 74.7% of the total import and export value of agricultural products, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, agricultural products exported through general trade were US$27.98 billion, an increase of 19.2%, accounting for 76.5% of the total export value that year; imports were US$29.97 billion, an increase of 34.9%, accounting for 73.1% of the total import value that year. There was a trade deficit of US$1.99 billion under the general trade of agricultural products.

Determined by the nature and characteristics of agricultural products and the country’s intensified policy adjustments to processing trade, the growth rate of agricultural product processing trade has been slow. In 2007, my country's processing trade import and export amounted to US$13.46 billion, an increase of only 8.5%, which was 14.6 percentage points lower than the growth rate of agricultural product imports and exports that year. It only accounted for 17.4% of the total agricultural product import and export value that year, shrinking by 2.3 percentage points from 2006. . Among them, exports were US$7.56 billion, an increase of 13.4%; imports were US$5.9 billion, an increase of 2.7%. A trade surplus of US$1.66 billion was achieved under agricultural product processing trade.

The warehousing import and export trade in the bonded zone ranks behind general trade and processing trade, with a cumulative import and export of US$3.96 billion, an increase of 33.4%, and the growth rate is relatively fast. The scale of bonded warehouse import and export and border small-scale trade both exceeded one billion US dollars, with import and export of US$1.08 billion and US$1 billion respectively, an increase of 13.5% and 13.8% respectively (Table 1).

Table 1 The total import and export value of my country's agricultural products by major trade methods in 2007

The amount of trade (billion US dollars) Increase or decrease (%) over the previous year

Import and export export import import export export import

General trade 579.5 279.8 299.7 26.8 19.2 34.9

Processing trade 134.6 75.6 59.0 8.5 13.4 2.7

Bonded zone warehousing import and export 39.6 2.3 37.3 33.4 51.4 32.4

Bonded warehouse entry and exit 10.8 0.9 9.9 13.5 43.8 11.4

Border small trade 10.0 6.6 3.4 13.8 13.0 15.3

3. Foreign investment Enterprises occupy a dominant position in import and export, with private enterprises replacing state-owned enterprises

In 2007, the role of foreign-invested enterprises in my country's agricultural trade was further strengthened. Foreign-invested enterprises imported and exported agricultural products worth US$35.25 billion, an increase of 30.8%. This was 7.7 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of agricultural product trade, accounting for 45.4% of the total import and export value of agricultural products, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous year.

The trade of agricultural products by private enterprises has maintained a stable and rapid development momentum for many years. In 2006, the import and export scale of agricultural products by private enterprises in my country was basically equivalent to that of state-owned enterprises. In 2007, the growth rate of agricultural trade of private enterprises was significantly better than that of state-owned enterprises. The total trade volume for the year exceeded US$20 billion, and the total import and export volume was US$20.31 billion, an increase of 26.5%. Private enterprises replaced state-owned enterprises and became the second largest enterprise type in my country's agricultural trade. .

In 2007, my country's state-owned enterprises' agricultural product trade reversed the decline in 2006 and showed positive growth, but the growth rate was still 11.9 percentage points lower than the overall growth rate of agricultural products. The total export value was US$18.17 billion, an increase of 11.2%, an increase of 19.8 percentage points over the previous year. The import and export of agricultural products by collective enterprises is small and has a low growth rate. The import and export is only US$3.78 billion, an increase of 4.1% (Table 2).

Table 2 Total import and export value of agricultural products by major enterprise types in my country in 2007

Amount of enterprise types (100 million U.S. dollars) Increase or decrease (%) over the previous year

Import and export export import import export export import

Foreign-invested enterprises 352.5 155.5 197.0 30.8 15.8 45.8

Private enterprises 203.1 116.3 86.8 26.5 23.3 31.1

State-owned enterprises 181.7 79.5 102.2 11.2 18.2 6.4

Collective enterprises 37.8 14.4 23.4 4.1 1.7 5.7

IV. my country’s agricultural product trade has high country concentration

The top 10 agricultural products trade in my country in 2007 The total import and export of the trading countries (regions) exceeds 60 billion US dollars, accounting for 83.1% of my country's total agricultural product import and export value.

In 2007, the United States continued to occupy the position of my country's largest agricultural product trading partner and largest source of imports. The total value of bilateral agricultural trade between China and the United States reached 13.51 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.9%; of which 91.3% of agricultural products imported from the United States. billion, an increase of 20.3%. The agricultural trade deficit with the United States was US$4.75 billion.

In 2007, ASEAN replaced Japan as my country's second largest agricultural product trading partner. The agricultural product trade volume between my country and ASEAN was US$11.02 billion, an increase of 37.7%, which was 14.6 percentage points higher than the overall increase in agricultural product trade.

Although Japan retreated to my country's third largest agricultural product trading partner in 2007, it is still my country's largest export market and the largest source of my country's agricultural product trade surplus. That year, the trade volume of agricultural products between China and Japan was US$8.73 billion, a slight increase of 1.3%, which was the lowest among the top 10 trading countries (regions), achieving a trade surplus of US$7.95 billion.

In 2007, China-EU agricultural trade volume followed Japan, with import and export of US$8.27 billion, an increase of 26.2%. Driven by the import of agricultural products, the agricultural product trade between my country and Argentina has doubled, and Argentina has become the largest source of deficit in my country's agricultural product trade (Table 3).

Table 3 The total value of agricultural imports and exports between my country and its major trading partners in 2007

Country (region) Amount (billion US dollars) Increase or decrease (%) over the previous year (%) Negative (smooth) Difference

Import, export, export, import, export, export, import

United States 135.1 43.8 91.3 18.9 16.0 20.3 -47.5

ASEAN 110.2 39.3 70.9 37.7 28.8 43.1 -31.6

Japan 87.3 83.4 3.9 1.3 1.6 -4.5 79.5

EU 82.7 54.8 26.2 23.9 30.8 26.8

Argentine 52.0 0.8 114.9 80.1 -51.6

South Korea 39.0 36.0 3.0 24.9 24.4 30.2 33.0

Hong Kong 31.3 30.5 0.8 14.7 14.4 30.8 29.7

Australia 30.6 4.5 26.1 14.0 24.1 12.5 -21.6

Russian Federation 26.7 12.2 14.4 22.6 38.3 11.9 -2.2

5. There are significant regional differences in agricultural product trade among domestic provinces and cities

In 2007, there were significant differences in the trade of agricultural products between the eastern, central and western regions of my country. The eastern region occupied an absolute dominant position in the scale of agricultural product trade. Among them, only the Bohai Rim region (Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong, etc.) The total value of agricultural product trade in 5 provinces and cities) reached US$31.98 billion, accounting for more than 40% of the total value of national agricultural product trade; the total value of agricultural product trade in the central and western regions only accounted for 11.9% of the total value of national agricultural product trade, of which the two regions The total exports of agricultural products accounted for 16.3% of the country's total, and the total imports accounted for 7.9%.

In 2007, the major economic provinces on my country's eastern coast also ranked among the top in terms of their agricultural product trade volume. Among them, the import and export of agricultural products in Shandong Province was US$15.87 billion, an increase of 12.5%, accounting for 20.5% of the total import and export value of agricultural products in the country that year. The total import and export value continued to rank first among all provinces and cities in the country. That year, the total import and export value of Guangdong's agricultural products also exceeded 10 billion US dollars, with imports and exports reaching 10.39 billion US dollars, ranking second in the country, with an increase of 20.9%. The total import and export value of agricultural products in the three provinces and cities of Jiangsu, Beijing and Shanghai ranked third, fourth and fifth respectively. Their total import and export values ??were US$7.23 billion, US$6.47 billion and US$6.36 billion respectively, an increase of 36.6% and 1.53% respectively. % and 45.2%, among which, the growth rate of Shanghai’s agricultural product trade ranked first among the major provinces and cities. In 2007, there were 13 provinces and cities in my country with a trade value of agricultural products exceeding US$1 billion, but only Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in the western region and Henan in the central region were among them, ranking 11th and 13th respectively (Table 4) .

Table 4 Statistical table of my country's major provinces and cities for import and export of agricultural products in 2007

Province and city amount (billion US dollars) Increase or decrease (%) over the previous year

Advanced Export export import import export export import

Shandong 158.7 92.4 66.3 12.5 14.2 10.3

Guangdong 103.9 41.4 62.5 20.9 7.6 31.7

Jiangsu 72.3 16.4 56.0 36.6 18.5 43.0

Beijing 64.7 20.2 44.5 15.3 57.2 2.9

Shanghai 63.6 12.6 51.0 45.2 19.4 53.5

Zhejiang 55.0 29.3 25.7 23.2 9.0 44.8

Liaoning 46.9 30.7 16.2 25.0 27.3 20.8

Fujian 44.2 27.5 16.7 19.9 14.0 30.9

Tianjin 27.4 7.4 20.0 34.1 10.4 45.7

Hebei 22.2 9.4 12.8 29. 5 11.9 46.4

Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region 16.5 4.6 11.9 25.3 22.1 26.6

Jilin 12.2 8.8 3.4 16.6 10.2 37.5

Henan 10.4 4.9 5.5 15.1 4.3 26.8

6. The performance of the main exported agricultural products is different. The exports of vegetables, aquatic seafood and livestock products have grown slowly, while the exports of fruits, cereals and cereal flour have soared.

my country is the world's largest producer and exporter of aquatic products. , affected by factors such as trade barriers, RMB appreciation, and rising global raw commodity prices, my country's exports of aquatic and seafood products only grew slightly in 2007. Exports of aquatic and seafood products that year were US$4.75 billion, an increase of 0.1%. Vegetables are also subject to severe trade barriers. my country has a unique climate for vegetable production, rich species resources, and low costs. Joining the WTO has provided opportunities for domestic vegetables to enter the international market. However, because vegetable exports have repeatedly encountered trade barriers represented by green barriers, normal exports have been seriously affected. In 2007, my country's vegetable exports amounted to US$4.22 billion, an increase of 6%. my country's livestock product exports also face similar problems as aquatic, seafood and vegetables. In 2007, exports amounted to US$4.04 billion, an increase of 8.3%. The export growth rate of the above three types of agricultural products was lower than the overall growth rate of agricultural exports.

Domestic fruit varieties such as apples and citrus still maintain strong export advantages, directly driving my country's fruit exports. In 2007, domestic fruit exports amounted to US$3.75 billion, an increase of 51.4%. Among them, apple juice, apples and oranges are important export fruit varieties, with exports of US$1.24 billion, US$510 million and US$210 million respectively, an increase of 1.1 times, 37.6% and 49.6% respectively, accounting for 52.3% of my country's total fruit export value. %. Stimulated by high grain prices in the international market, my country's grain exports expanded rapidly in 2007. Total grain exports (including rice, wheat, corn and other grains and grain flour, excluding soybeans) were 9.864 million tons, valued at US$2.19 billion. Growth rates were 63% and 89.6% respectively, with net grain exports exceeding 8 million tons that year. As my country's population continues to increase and cultivated land area decreases, the scale of domestic net grain exports is too large, which is not conducive to stabilizing domestic grain prices.

7. Agricultural products with raw material properties occupy a dominant position in imports

The domestic oil and fat, textile and clothing processing industries are developing rapidly, and the demand for upstream raw materials is strong, which directly drives the growth of soybeans, cotton and wool. and large-scale imports of agricultural products. Soybeans are my country's largest imported agricultural product. In 2007, the import volume exceeded 30 million tons and the value exceeded 10 billion U.S. dollars. The cumulative soybean imports throughout the year were 30.82 million tons, worth 11.47 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 9.1% and 53.2% respectively. In 2007, domestic cotton production exceeded 7 million tons, and supply capacity was improved. At the same time, quota management of cotton imports became more scientific and effective. In addition, the calculation method of import tariffs on cotton outside the quota was changed to sliding tax, which further narrowed the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. Domestic cotton replaced The strengthened role directly led to the decline of imported cotton. That year, cotton imports were 2.46 million tons, valued at US$3.48 billion, a decrease of 32.5% and 28.5% respectively. At present, my country's annual wool processing volume has reached more than 400,000 tons (net wool), accounting for about 1/3 of global output, and the primary production and processing volume of wool ranks first in the world. However, my country produces only more than 100,000 tons of wool each year and needs to import a large amount of wool to meet domestic demand. In 2007, my country imported 311,000 tons of wool worth US$1.79 billion, an increase of 11.9% and 42% respectively.

Spurred by the increasing consumer demand of domestic residents, the import of edible vegetable oil and poultry products has surged. In 2007, my country imported 8.383 million tons of edible vegetable oil, worth US$6.24 billion, an increase of 25.2% and 97.9% respectively.

Imported poultry meat and products were 804,000 tons, worth US$950 million, an increase of 36.4% and 1 times respectively.

With the implementation of the "early harvest" program between my country and ASEAN, and the mainland's implementation of zero tariffs on the import of 15 kinds of fresh fruits originating in Taiwan, my country's fresh and dried fruits and nuts in 2007 Imports continued to maintain steady growth. Due to the strengthening substitute role of domestic grain and sugar, the scale of my country's imported grain and sugar shrank in 2007, and the import volume of dairy products also declined during the same period.

Among my country's main imported agricultural products in 2007, except for sugar, which has seen a decrease in import prices due to the surge in global production, the other import prices have increased to varying degrees, including soybeans, edible vegetable oils, and poultry meat. The import prices of products, dairy products and grains all increased by more than 40% (Table 5).

Table 5 Volume and price statistics of my country’s main imported agricultural products in 2007

Main

Import volume of varieties (10,000 tons) Import value (100 million U.S. dollars) Average import price

(USD/ton) Increase or decrease (%) over the previous year

Import volume, import value, average import price

Soybeans 3082.1 114.7 372 9.2 53.2 40.4

Edible vegetable oil 838.3 62.4 744 25.2 97.9 58.0

Cotton 246.0 34.8 1415 -32.5 -28.5 5.8

Frozen fish 181.6 26.4 1451 5.1 9.2 3.9

Wool 33.2 19.1 5738 10.8 40.1 26.4

Poultry meat and products 80.4 9.5 1177 36.4 103.5 49.2

Fruit and products 134.7 9.6 709 7.0 25.6 17.3

Fresh, Dried fruits and nuts 136.5 8.3 609 5.3 22.0 15.9

Dairy products 29.9 7.4 2492 -14.1 33.3 55.3

Grain 155.7 5.4 344 -56.6 -36.2 46.8

Sugar 119.3 3.8 318 -11.5 -30.8 -21.8

Part 2: The situation facing domestic agricultural development is still severe

Since joining the WTO, our government has conscientiously fulfilled its WTO commitments, and the import tariffs on agricultural products have been significantly reduced. , agricultural product import quotas and other control measures have been gradually lifted, and a large number of agricultural products have entered the Chinese market more conveniently, which has had an impact on my country's agriculture; at the same time, due to the rise of international trade protectionism and the stagnation of the Doha Round negotiations, my country's agricultural products have struggled in product quality and quality inspection The slow integration of the system and other aspects with international standards has hindered the export of my country's agricultural products.

1. Export of agricultural products

(1) Prominent safety issues of food and agricultural products

The development level of domestic agricultural regions varies, and the use of veterinary pesticides and pesticides restricted by the state, The abuse of hormones and even highly toxic pesticides; the improper processing of agricultural products by individual production companies; and the failure of the agricultural product inspection and quarantine system to achieve international standards in the short term have seriously affected the quality of my country's agricultural products. With the growth of my country's export trade volume of agricultural products and the improvement of food safety requirements in developed countries, the safety problems existing in my country's food and agricultural products have gradually been exposed. The "EU Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed" (RASFF) issues early warnings and information notifications on Chinese products year by year. "Poisonous leeks", "poisonous vermicelli", "turbo fish incident", "poisonous dumplings" and other issues related to the quality of agricultural products Security incidents continue to occur, and diseases such as "bird flu" and "foot-and-mouth disease" occur frequently. In 2007, the United States banned the entry of five types of aquatic and seafood products from my country, including catfish, citing food safety issues. The European Union launched a review of my country's imported artificially cultured seafood. South Korea also banned 34 Chinese aquaculture companies from exporting fish and other seafood to South Korea for similar reasons. product. Western media have exaggerated the quality of food exported by my country, trade friction has intensified, and food safety issues have become another new important factor restricting my country's export of aquatic and seafood products.

(2) Trade protectionism is on the rise, and trade barriers to agricultural products continue to strengthen

Developed countries have used green barriers to continuously raise the import threshold of agricultural products on the grounds of health and environmental protection. . Japan is my country's largest agricultural export market and the market where my country's agricultural products suffer the most severe trade barriers. After Japan implemented the "Positive List System" for agricultural products exported to Japan in 2006, it issued the "2007 Imported Food Surveillance Guidance Plan" in 2007 to further strengthen the monitoring of imported food quality. Affected by this, the growth rate of my country's agricultural exports to Japan in 2006 was only 2.7%. Although it improved in 2007, it was still far behind the overall growth rate.

The European Union and the United States have also successively set up multiple obstacles to my country's agricultural exports, such as the United States' "Best Aquaculture Practices" (BAP), the European Union's "European Union Food and Feed Safety Management Regulations", and the European Union's new maximum limits for food contaminants. Regulations "EC1881/2006", etc. While facing green barriers, my country's agricultural products also have to deal with the frequent impact of anti-dumping. In recent years, many of my country's export agricultural products, such as honey, garlic, concentrated apple juice, canned mushrooms, etc., have been subject to anti-dumping investigations. The existence of trade barriers has raised the export threshold of my country's agricultural products and increased the export costs of agricultural products.

II. Agricultural product imports

(1) The import scale of important agricultural product varieties is gradually expanding, which has an impact on domestic economic security

Agriculture is an important part of the national economy Some are industries that the government focuses on protecting and supporting, while the continuous expansion of the import scale of some agricultural products has had a direct impact on domestic agriculture, of which the soybean industry is a typical example. Before 1996, my country was still a net exporter of soybeans. After 1996, the number of soybean imports increased rapidly, and my country changed from a net exporter of soybeans to a net importer. In 2003, soybean imports exceeded domestic soybean production. In 2007, soybean imports exceeded 30 million tons, more than twice the domestic soybean production. The influx of imported soybeans has severely impacted domestic agriculture, hindering the production enthusiasm of soybean farmers. Some soybean farmers choose to plant other crops instead of soybeans, causing my country's soybean planting area to continue to shrink and the domestic market to become more dependent on soybean imports. At the same time, international multinational grain merchants are making a big fuss about soybeans, investing heavily in building factories in my country and acquiring Chinese soybean oil processing enterprises. They currently control 80% of my country’s raw material procurement rights and 60% of its effective processing capacity.

(2) Imports lack “pricing rights”, and related industries are feeling the pressure

my country has many agricultural product import companies, scattered procurement, and information asymmetry, which have resulted in my country’s international reputation. When large quantities of agricultural products are purchased in the market, price negotiations are often in a passive position. Suppliers rely on their "pricing power" to manipulate the prices of bulk agricultural products. In recent years, the import prices of agricultural products such as soybeans and cotton have fluctuated significantly, causing heavy losses to my country's import companies. In 2007, the prices of agricultural products imported into my country generally rose, with some important varieties increasing significantly. Affected by this, the costs of downstream industries such as oil, textiles and clothing, and breeding in my country have increased, further increasing domestic inflationary pressure.