First, the pig price rebounded from the end of April and reached its peak in June and July, which stimulated the market. However, with the release of policy control signals, the market began to doubt the trend of pig prices in the second half of the year, and the market tension also increased.

Second, it can be seen that the policy has been more active in regulating the pig market this year.

For example, in June and July, as soon as the pig price rose, the policy side acted in time, and this time, even before the pig price rose, the signal was released again.

On August 29th, news from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the official account of WeChat, said that there will be many important festivals such as Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, New Year's Day and Spring Festival in the future.

In order to ensure the pork market supply during holidays, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, began to release government pork reserves in batches in September, and instructed local governments to jointly release the reserves.

In fact, in the regulation in July, the policy also released the signal of putting in reserve meat.

At that time, it was also said that effective measures such as reserve adjustment and supply and demand adjustment would be taken in time to prevent the price of live pigs from rising too fast.

However, according to our analysis, the probability of putting in reserve meat at that time was not great.

The first reason is that although the price of pigs has risen too fast, the price of pig food is still within the normal range.

At the beginning of June, the national pig price successfully "broke 8" and directly "broke 10" at the end of June. That is to say, in just one month, the pig price rose by nearly 30%, and if compared with the low point in March, it rose by more than 70%.

Although the price of pigs rose a bit sharply, the price of pig food at that time was about 7.5: 1. According to the Work Plan for Ensuring Supply and Stabilizing Price in Pork Market, when the price of pork is too high, the state will put in reserve meat.

The trigger condition of the second-level early warning is that the pig food price has been10:1~12:1for two consecutive weeks, or the average retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities has increased by 30-40% year-on-year.

At that time, these two conditions were not available, so there was little chance of putting in reserve meat.

After a lapse of one month, the National Development and Reform Commission once again released the investment storage signal. What is the reason?

According to the new agricultural concept, this time, the country once again released the regulation signal of putting in reserve meat, which is more about pre-regulation of pig prices in the later period.

For the follow-up pig price trend, the market currently has two views:

One thinks that with the arrival of the peak consumption season, the price of pigs will definitely rise; From another point of view, although consumption will increase in the second half of the year, the second fattening will increase supply and offset each other, so it is difficult for the pig price to show much.

However, the market generally holds the first view, so the policy side once again releases the signal of putting in reserve meat, and more is to give the market a vaccination to suppress emotions and prevent the pig price from rising excessively.

So, when will the reserve meat be put in?

Although the current price of pig food is around 8. 1: 1, it fails to meet the standard of 10: 1.

However, with the arrival of the peak consumption season in the fourth quarter, if the increase in pig prices drives the increase in meat prices too fast, it will lead to the release of reserve meat and cool the market, but the expected quantity will not be very large.

Because from the perspective of the supply and demand fundamentals of the live pig market, it does not support the surge in pig prices, but is more influenced by factors and emotions.

Therefore, it is estimated that the investment will not be large and the direct impact on the market will be limited.

Will the price of pigs fall?

After the release of the signal of putting in reserve meat, the futures price of live pigs fell immediately, but the new agricultural concept still thinks that the prospect of the follow-up live pig market is not so pessimistic.

Because the fluctuation of pig price ultimately depends on the supply and demand side of the market, there is no big imbalance between the supply and demand side of the market, and the aquaculture industry is also recovering, so the probability of another big drop is very small.

After entering September, with the growth of consumption, the price of pigs is still expected to rise, but the range and space are reduced.

Therefore, the test pressure of the market on farmers will multiply. How to avoid blind pressure bar and how to choose the right time to sell the pole will become the key to profit in the second half of the year.